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david jon furbish

@davidjonfurbish.bsky.social
194 followers 110 following 424 posts

emeritus professor studying statistical physics of sediment transport & science philosophy essays and ebook preview at: my.vanderbilt.edu/davidjonfurbish author of Fluid Physics in Geology: academic.oup.com/book/40895?login=f…

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Reposted by david jon furbish
Eamon Duede @eduede.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Silvia De Toffoli and I wrote a guest article for Terence Tao's blog in response to the recent AI Navier-Stokes result. We argue that the 'AI has "solved" mathematics' idea rests on two assumptions, both seductive & plausible, but both wrong. #philsci #AI #math terrytao.wordpress.com/2026/09/12/a...
terrytao.wordpress.com
After Math
[This is a guest post by Silvia De Toffoli and Eamon Duede. This blog post was initially written in a different file format and converted using AI. — T.] Silvia De Toffoli (University School …
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Brian Phillips’ statement on tech remains undefeated in its succinct clarity
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Iris van Rooij 💭 @irisvanrooij.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
I will be using this template a lot: "LLMs cannot do X because that is a cognitive capacity and LLMs have none.” Used it here too: irisvanrooijcogsci.com/2026/04/08/r...
irisvanrooijcogsci.com
Refusal to Review
I wrote the below email, when invited to review a paper that was partially processed by ChatGPT. As I imagine the email could be useful inspiration for others, I decided to make it available. Feel …
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
This declaration on math and AI reminds me that, in science, an accurate prediction of the behavior/state of a system in the absence of explanation might be practically useful, but it is scientifically worthless. See also the “problem (fallacy) of induction” vs the elements of critical rationalism.
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Terence Tao @teorth.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A group of 25 Fields Medalists, including myself, have made a joint declaration on Math and AI: mathandai.org . We welcome additional signatories. See also this article in the Economist announcing the declaration: www.economist.com/science-and-...
mathandai.org
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I’m seeing an increasing number of spam emails from companies offering “specialized” AI as a research “colleague” or “co-researcher.” Perhaps with the recognition of decreasing research funding, some highlight the idea of “new discoveries” from existing data sets. #AI #academia #science
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Max Kennerly @maxkennerly.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Interesting thread by @teorth.bsky.social about LLM math proofs inhibiting math research by giving an answer that's correct but doesn't improve understanding. Speculation online is that he's not just musing, some AI lab showed him a Navier-Stokes solution and he's trying to nudge them a better way.
mathstodon.xyz
Terence Tao (@tao@mathstodon.xyz)
A concrete example of how AI advances in solving key open problems could inihibit the future development of a mathematical field can be found in the global regularity problem for the incompressible Na...
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James Gleick @around.com · 30/08/2026
Lac #Ontario Aujourd’hui et pour toujours. 🇨🇦
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Andy Scollick @andyscollick.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Clear, informative description of freedom of speech versus academic freedom — notably the expectations that go with each
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Our neighborhood “wild” turkeys like to visit our birdbath — one of their favorite watering spots. Occasionally they will actually try to bathe in it, like the little birds. This mostly just makes a wet feathery mess of things 😂 #wildlife #birds #wildturkey
Three wild turkeys sipping water from a birdbath in grassy lawn
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ee9f...
youtube.com
Natural Disaster Expert: Elites Have NO PLAN for Climate Collapse | Aaron Bastani meets Bill McGuire
YouTube video by Novara Media
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
eenews.net
Amid record heat and wildfire, countries resort to drastic steps
Governments have sunk barges in the Danube, evacuated thousands near wildfires and invented new words in a summer of climate extremes.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I had been imagining that my spirit animal is a Tardigrade. Always great company. But now I’m rethinking… “Oh hi, David! Give me a moment to fully decelerate here on my viscoelastic slime, then I’ll throw up my neon green solar panels while we talk! Want some algae?”
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Jim Labisko💚🐸🦎🐍🐢🦇🐆🧪💙😷4/4 @jimlabisko.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
theguardian.com
Winner of Invertebrate of the Year 2026 crowned – and it is the size of a grain of rice
The leaf sheep, a neon green solar-powered slug, has inspired at least one Pokémon character and triumphs in global ballot
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Rowan’s cool butt markings highlight her natural sashay 😂 #dogs #dogsofbluesky #AustralianShepherd
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
These three 6 m stems of Paulownia tomentosa (princess tree or empress tree or foxglove tree) started as small shoots in June. Native to China, the deciduous hardwood princess tree is among the fastest growing in the world, and it invasively thrives in TN.
Pic of three stems of princess tree with large leaves growing in front of gray cabin, with Australian Shepherd standing near the base of the trees
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
To reinforce two well-known points: to advocate for “AI literacy” is to support a bait-and-switch marketing ploy having nothing to do with learning or scholarship to adopt an opt-out versus opt-in policy defies principles of consent and insults students’ sensibilities on the matter at the outset
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Because of the continuing relevance of B. K. Forscher’s classic 1963 allegorical Letter in Science, “Chaos in the Brickyard,” we “updated” it in 2020. Science rejected our Letter, and you will see a likely contributing factor when we describe “storage places” 😂 “The Brickyard in 2020”
cdn.vanderbilt.edu
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I am skeptical of the premise that reasoning evolved as a capacity for persuasion and not as a means of discovery. And the authors have a rosier view of doing science than what actually occurs. Nonetheless the arguments presented in the paper do not hinge on these points and it is a delightful read.
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Olivia Guest · Ολίβια Γκεστ @olivia.science · 12/08/2026
I wish more people talked about how universities embraced AI and this helped create a perfect storm for supposedly most students now cheating using chatbots. Many ways of undetected cheating have always existed, but were never promoted as ways to study or write. The complicity is flagrant. 1/
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
✨"Social epistemology needs a theory of reasoning that would explain the type of social interactions it describes as the root of scientific knowledge production. And here is the good news: the argumentative theory of reasoning is a rather good candidate for that purpose." philpapers.org/rec/HEITUE
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Sophie Bodek @streamofsophie.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Excited to share two preprints for companion papers that examine the statistics of bedload motion! We used high-resolution imagery to capture grain tracks from flume experiments across a range of fluid shear stresses. We also subject the sand bed to "stress history" to see how grain motion changes.
Three-panel figure from a scientific paper. The top panel (a) shows example sediment trajectories from a particle-tracking analysis overlaid onto an image of the underlying sediment bed; note the appearance of fluorescing sand grains illuminated by the ultraviolet light. These trajectories represent transport conditions over a subset of the sediment bed that is 1.2 times the threshold for grain motion. The middle panel (b) shows the same sediment trajectories as depicted in panel (a) with markers indicating periods of motion (blue) and rest (red); one of the trajectories is highlighted in yellow. This highlighted track is further examined in panel (c), which shows a timeseries of streamwise position (black line) and velocity (red/blue markers) for the example trajectory illustrating segments of motion and rest.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Here we go again… second attempt with a second “compact” version. But arrangements centered on extortion never work well.
politico.com
Trump administration asks colleges to commit to education overhaul
Education Secretary Linda McMahon’s letter contains some similarities to a compact offered to and rejected by a small group of schools last year.
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The Rude Pundit @rudepundit.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
This is terrifying and it doesn't even get into the inevitable crisis when tens of millions of climate refugees leave places where they can't survive.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
“AI is the asbestos we're shovelling into the walls of our technological society. Our descendants will spend generations digging it out again, and the longer the bubble goes on without popping, the longer it will take to repair the damage.” www.thenerve.news/p/cory-docto...
thenerve.news
Cory Doctorow: The people who tell you ‘AI is changing everything’ are lying
It has become impossible to tell managers mesmerised by artificial intelligence that the tools are not, in fact, helpful. So employees just play along with the fiction to keep their jobs, writes our t...
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 30/07/2026
New in PN: The new "science golden age" looks suspiciously like a grift "It’s impossible not to wonder whether part of Trump’s loathing for universities is that there's no way for him to corrupt the process and make money off it in the same way he can by giving billions to Silicon Valley types."
publicnotice.co
The new "science golden age" looks suspiciously like a grift
Trump wants to run scientific research like his family business.
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James Gleick @around.com · 25/07/2026
Just say it. Stop pretending you don't know. Say it each time.
NYT: "Fast-moving wildfires fuels by extreme heat and strong winds have forced some 200,000 people to flee or remain indoors this week in France and Spain ..."

Suggested edit: "a devastating manifestation of the human-caused climate change gripping the planet,"
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Karl Bode @karlbode.com · 08/07/2026
the final reckoning between AI hype and reality is upon us. buckle up.
karlbode.com
The AI Hype Reckoning Is Upon Us
The massive chasm between AI hype and reality is finally reaching the breaking point.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
I usually compose footnotes in a manner befitting their normally intended purpose: to support or elaborate material in the main text. But I also view certain footnotes as opportunities to drop serious snark. Here is one of my favorite recently composed footnotes, with context.
Consider rain splash transport as an example, and recall the one-dimensional entrainment form of the Exner equation...

Focusing on the advective term in (1)...

where D = k E / c_b.  Thus the advective term looks like diffusion as defined mathematically.  Whereas it is correct to say that (2) is a diffusion equation, it is incorrect to say that this equation represents the effects of particle diffusion.  The effects of particle diffusion are described by the last term in (1), a point that we fully examine in Chapter 11.  A similar interpretation applies to soil creep, where (2) arises from the assumption that the vertically integrated soil flux is proportional to the local land-surface slope.

The derivative on the right side of (2) often is referred to as a diffusive term, likely in analogy with a conventional advection--diffusion equation.  This is correct in a mathematical sense, and perhaps intended to refer to the idea that ``diffusive smoothing'' of the function < zeta > occurs according to the mathematical algorithm defined by a diffusion equation.  But in a physical sense related to transport, the derivative on the right side of (2) is actually an advective term.  It looks mathematically diffusive only because the average particle displacement is proportional to the land-surface slope.\footnote{\textcolor{blue}{This point of confusion seems to reflect a broader misunderstanding of the meaning of advection.  The popular, heuristically confused ``stream power model'' of land-surface evolution includes a ``diffusive'' term as in (2) and a term involving the product of the local land-surface slope and the upstream catchment area.  This latter term is often referred to as an advective term, but it has nothing to do with advection.  It is in fact a local sink term.  Moreover, for physical reasons the two terms are not additive as normally assumed.}}
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Well conceptualized and designed work — and thorough. This paper represents a key reference point for those aimed at pressing this area of sediment transport research forward.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
eBook Preview (continued): Statistical Physics of Sediment Particle Motions and Transport Chapter 7: Master Equations Below is a brief description from my webpage to go with the link. cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-my/my-prd...
eBook Preview

Statistical Physics of Rarefied Sediment Particle Motions and Transport: Applications to Hillslopes and Rivers

Chapter 7: Master Equations

Of all the topics covered in the book, the formalism of a master equation quintessentially embodies the power and beauty of the principles and methods of statistical physics as applied to sediment particle systems. Herein we see that a master equation really is what its name says it is --- a universal "truth" describing conservation of probability --- where e.g. the behavior of Brownian particles, sediment particles and the stars of the Milky Way Galaxy are all described by the same equation, the Fokker-Planck equation.  Yes... Brownian particles are like rarefied bed load particles are like stars --- all experiencing velocity proportional (Stokes) friction!

Bonus: This chapter provides the first completely rigorous derivation and explanation of the activity form of the Exner equation --- highlighting its stochastic qualities under rarefied transport conditions --- thus avoiding unphysical consequences of conventional misapplications of the continuum hypothesis.
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Joshua Sokol @joshuasokol.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
What is the value of human beings studying the cosmos? For @michaelgreshko.bsky.social at Science, I dug into how practitioners of humanity's oldest exact science are metabolizing the latest developments in AI...and how it seems to be forcing them to wrestle with philosophical questions.
science.org
Amid a flood of AI advances, astrophysicists are questioning the soul of their field
Researchers see enormous power in new tools—but also the potential end of astrophysics as a human endeavor
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
eBook Preview (continued): Statistical Physics of Sediment Particle Motions and Transport For anyone interested, I posted revised versions of the Preface and Introduction (Chapter 1) on my webpage. Below is a brief description from my webpage to go with the link. cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-my/my-prd...
Posting this preview of material from my next (unfinished) book might be a mistake. But eh... what the hell. It represents real progress in understanding. And given the current state of domestic and world affairs amidst a climate crisis, who knows what doing science will even look like by the time I finish the book?

The linked pdf contains the title page with front material, the Preface, and the Introduction (Chapter 1).  These sections provide a clear idea of the material covered in the book, including its philosophical basis.  Although I originally committed an early version of the book to a well-known university press, I eventually decided instead to prepare it as an ebook, consistent with my views on open access, to be freely accessible to all.  Although it currently exceeds 450 pages without figures, I still have much to do and won't offer a target date.  Completed parts of the book are accessible on my webpage (currently posted versions are a bit dated and do not show recent edits), together with essays on topics that will eventually appear in the book.

The objective of the book is to provide a framework for describing sediment particle motions and transport in a manner that integrates principles and methods of probability with mechanical considerations of particle motions. The book therefore covers the topic of sediment transport in a manner that is mostly unfamiliar to folks in the Earth-surface processes community. Nonetheless, I suspect it will resonate with students and early career people eager for a fresh view of this complex and often confusing topic. To be sure, the book unapologetically breaks from current dogmatic styles of thinking and analysis in the field.
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Brian Phillips @brianphillips.lol · 28/05/2026
Here's the serious bit for anyone who'd rather skip the 4000 words of jokes
Because the truth is, tech doesn't have an image problem. It doesn't have a message problem. It has an intention problem. What's wrong with the axe murderer who broke into my house is not that he hasn't successfully persuaded me to buy into his narrative. What's wrong is that he's trying to kill me with an axe. Similarly, when you launch a product that's designed to put millions of people out of work, block access to sources of verifiable truth, replace human creativity with slop, and lower the barriers to every sort of atrocity, the problem isn't that you haven't told the public a good story about those things. The problem is that you are trying to do them. (
There are things in the world that are more important than money. The fact that you seem not to believe this, that you seem to think any motive beyond ruthless acquisitiveness is fake, dishonest, or childish, is the heart of your problem. Your attitude is not by any means unique to tech, but the
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
it’s joyful dock diving season again… so time to repost this video of Rowan the fearless dock diving woof! #dogs #dogsofbluesky #AustralianShepherd
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Callan Bentley @callanbentley.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
⚒️
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
‘Point of no return’: New Orleans relocation must start now due to sea level, study finds
Louisiana’s cultural hotspot could be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century, authors say
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
A younger West-Coast academic colleague asked about any professional changes in my life. My reply: “So that you know, they immediately give you tenure when you retire, and there are no promotions. Well… maybe a promotion from “ok dog walker” to “pretty good dog walker,” but that’s it.” lol
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
eBook Preview (continued): Statistical Physics of Sediment Particle Motions and Transport The current table of Contents lists the topics to be covered, although the headings for the chapters in the second part of the book (Applications) are not yet included. cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-my/my-prd...
cdn.vanderbilt.edu
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Here is the link to the article that Dan Gillmor is referring to. Grim stuff indeed. www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1...
technologyreview.com
We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. Here’s the story you haven’t heard.
The emissions from individual AI text, image, and video queries seem small—until you add up what the industry isn’t tracking and consider where it’s heading next.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
this anticipated result is deliciously hilarious nonetheless the altman types will still burn through trillions of dollars in their efforts to destroy the commons, imagining the laws of physics don’t apply to their electronic matrix-inverting fantasies arxiv.org/html/2601.05...
arxiv.org
On the Limits of Self-Improving in Large Language Models: The Singularity Is Not Near Without Symbolic Model Synthesis
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
this is really funny clearly Microsoft is increasingly desperate with this copilot shit www.theregister.com/2026/04/23/m...
theregister.com
Microsoft adds uninvited AI co-author to Word docs
: Also rolls out agentic Copilot in Excel and PowerPoint, letting 21st century Clippy lend a... hand
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Rowan especially enjoys romping amidst the bright fresh greenery of springtime in the Tennessee highlands — here on the trail to the creek (gonna look for frogs and turtles!) and on the creek floodplain currently flooded with ferns! #dogs #dogsofbluesky #AustralianShepherd
tri-color Australian Shepherd walking on trail in woods with bright green understory plantstri-color Australian Shepherd standing on creek floodplain amidst bright green ferns within oak-hickory forest
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Rowan… intrepid woof, Dragon Soccer star, enthusiastic hiking companion, fearless creek wader… #dogs #dogsofbluesky #AustralianShepherd
photo of tri-color Australian Shepherd looking to side of camera with blue sky in upper background
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
eBook Preview (continued): Statistical Physics of Sediment Particle Motions and Transport Chapter 4: Basic Stochastic Processes Highlights of this chapter include: (i) counting processes (Poisson, simple renewal, and additive Levy processes) 1/3 cdn.vanderbilt.edu/t2-my/my-prd...
cdn.vanderbilt.edu
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
I have fond memories of time spent in Budapest — the people, the city, the Danube, the countryside. This is all truly wonderful news.
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
As an emeritus faculty I minimally maintain a Windows system for reasons related to legacy software and engagement with campus IT. But I have otherwise nearly completed my migration to Linux and open-source software. (I have avoided most MS software for years.) 1/3
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
“This fragile landscape—like so many across our planet—is on the brink of huge change.” www.motherjones.com/environment/...
motherjones.com
Scientists set out to learn how climate change affects wild meadows—with alarming results
“It’s a profound change in the ecosystem."
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david jon furbish @davidjonfurbish.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
The author’s response to this question is absolutely brilliant! “It is a letter that arrives every few years from the government, asking a question that is medically absurd and philosophically insulting: "Are you still disabled?"” sightlessscribbles.com/posts/the-pa...
sightlessscribbles.com
The 'Paperwork Flood': How I Drowned a Bureaucrat before dinner., Sightless Scribbles
A fabulously gay blind author.
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