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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 2h

also has a bad habit of lying about things and covering up *his* mistakes

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 2h

Don't know which is more annoying - Gemini being excessively sycophantic or Claude just being a bit of a cock

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 6h

It means GDP is under recorded

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 6h

so @pkrugman.bsky.social I suggest you try to hire a car in Italy.. it might change your views 😆

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

every fund manager I have spoken to in the past 3 weeks, "is it time to add duration yet....?" ok NOW its time 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Rising US yields are like the tide going out - you quickly discover who has been swimming naked. The French 🤣 Let's hope the ECB throws a blanket over them quickly because nobody wants to see that shit

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

you dont have to believe in the bond vigilantes to see that a global bond market selloff is not a good time to draw attention to yourself by doing something stupid.. #UKbudget

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I don't wanna sound flippant, but if there is a "crisis" in bond markets, central banks have the tools to fix it (even even you don't like those solutions...). worry about the shit they cant fix

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

what is driving yields? oil ✅ growth resilience ✅ monetary policy ✅ Fed credibility ❌ fiscal risk ❌ fiscal dominance ❌ debasement ❌ Yen carry trade ❌ crowding out ❌

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Traditionally, the US economy has always stalled once employment stopped growing. Remember the Sahm rule? My view back then was that people were misreading the labour market and Fed didnt need to cut. But I dont set policy. My point - it wasnt political

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Powell panicked because employment was contracting. Fed officials have been doing that for time immemorial. TV back then was full of pundits saying the economy was entering recession

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Reposted by Dario Perkins

EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The real courage? Sending out that note as newsletter :)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

hiking 25bps at full employment, with jobs accelerating, inflation above target, and the bond market daring you to do it. SO BRAVE. It would have been more courageous not to hike 🤣

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Reposted by Dario Perkins

Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

at 185cm, he's a little taller than Powell

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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

this guy? :)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Heard on Bloomberg: "maybe Warsh is the new Volcker". Let's not get carried away. Only took 25bps to change the narrative though.....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I think QT is pointless virtue signaling anyway

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

So under political heat over the stupid QT programme, the Bank of England is basically handing the entire problem over to the Treasury - so the Treasury can pull a Bessent? It that what this is?

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

lets just say that being Fed chair is a lot harder than he thought it would be 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Warsh citing the economy's strength to justify the hike was a bit like the man on the street who, are tripping slighty, does that long, staggered jog to hide his embarrassment...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

TERRIFYING: For the first time since the Summary of Economic Projections started being published, there are zero members who see downside risks to GDP growth (Kevin Gordon)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The sock puppet narrative just died, as it should. Or maybe the bond market is just scarier than the President 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

they dont give me enough characters here so I'll have to screenshot this...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

You need to be lucky or smart to be Fed chair and so far Warsh has been neither 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Warsh talked himself into this ridiculous situation...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I dont believe either of those professional bullshitters

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The outcome that would surprise most people - no rate hike and a rally in bonds. Literally everyone thinks a failure to lift rates would trigger a fierce bond selloff... tbh thats probably why the Fed will hike - fear of the market response...

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Well that's why the higher policy rate sticks... sort of

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Daughter is reffing. A kid just scored a free kick from the halfway line and his coach said "thats much better boys" 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Think you eventually have to back it up, especially in this climate. Otherwise inflation expectations will rise and real yields drop (opposite of what we have now)

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

But those stories are definitely fun, and tbh its been wonderful to watch policymakers - particularly this generation of US policymakers with giant egos - tie themselves up in knots... hopefully they learn a little humility but dont count on it

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

If you look beyond all the angst and punditry about fiscal policy, issuance, "liquidity" and CB "credibility", the story in bonds is that markets are pricing a relatively modest global tightening cycle in response to higher-for-longer energy prices . Really not that remarkable

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Warsh thinks the bond market is a genius. Bessent thinks its an idiot (and he is the genius....). I dunno who to believe 🤣

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Remember when Warsh said he was hoping the bond market, "the smartest economist in the world", would give him a signal about what to do with interest rates....?

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NelderMead @neldermead.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Too many nutters chasing too few facts

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

the "monetarists-were-right-about-COVID-inflation (lets all track the money supply)" crowd seem to have forgotten that those same monetarists all turned into uber bearish recessionistas once the money supply started to contract...which was totally the wrong call

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Some people actually wanted it to rain more....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Warsh isnt credible until Trump is calling him an idiot. I dont make the rules....

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

we are now a the point where, even if Warsh was a politically compromised as everyone says, he should still hike rates just to make it less obvious 😂😂

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

the big issue with all this focus on one MoM CPI number is that there seems to be residual seasonality in the data. Summers are soft.

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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

come on, thats not fair. It has taken decades of sucking up to the right people to get that job...

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