iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Randomly heard "Don't Speak" on the radio tonight for the first time in years and it hit me: it's a perfect song.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

An unfathomable loss, but we will carry on.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

His public knows what it wants, and he must deliver.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

One more thing: this article was several years in the making, and one fraught with strange detours and challenges--not least of which was acquiring data from a survey firm in a country under heavy sanctions. Thanks to everyone who helped us overcome these challenges along the way.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

In sum, rather than provoke Russian households to rush out of rubles into dollars, Western sanctions seemed to have done the opposite. Free-access link: track.smtpsendmail.com/9032119/c?p=... Fin.

track.smtpsendmail.com

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The experimental results also point to sanctions as the reason for the declining appeal of dollars in Russia. Our sanctions treatment increased the likelihood that wealthy Russians believed it to be "unwise" to save dollars, while our FX restrictions treatment had no effect. 6/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

We support our observational findings with a follow-up, preregistered survey experiment in Russia. This helps us rule out the counterargument that Russian capital controls/FX restrictions that followed sanctions explain our finding. 5/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Moreover, this effect was strongest among wealthy Russians, the group most likely to find dollar savings to be less useful and more fraught with risk post-sanctions. 4/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Western sanctions led to a sharp drop in the share of Russians who thought it was wise to save in dollars--consistent with a de-dollarization story. 3/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Drawing on eight survey waves representative of the Russian population before/after 2022 Western sanctions, we reveal how attitudes toward the dollar changed. Rather than pushing people toward dollars, as one line of theory would predict, sanctions did precisely the opposite. 2/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Brilliantly said! It's a huge service we provide that most students just take a pass on.

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herman mark schwartz @thunen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

protip for students: if you want to have a private, Oxford tutorial-like experience at your humongous state college, go to office hours and ask questions. i had an undergrad student who basically got an entire graduate level course on pol-econ of development just by showing up for office hours.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

TIL gen z doesn't like umbrellas as several of my students showed up to class rain soaked today.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

BFF still means "Ben Folds Five" to me.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Some people chase trends. I am not some people.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

A+ work out of @mlb.com scheduling Mets-Yankees tonight.

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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Author meets critics! Fun discussion of Aditi Sahasrabuddhe’s excellent new book, “Bankers’ Trust,” with @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social @danielmcdowell.bsky.social Alexa Zeitz, & Lawrence Broz. Congrats Aditi on an excellent book! #APSA2026

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Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

An organization that, like its starting QB, does not respect its fans. Wasting everyone’s time here.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

You have me rolling over here with "Ezra Douthglesias" 🤣🤣🤣

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Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

57% of Russians consider the political situation "tense," another 13% consider it "critical, explosive." www.levada.ru/2026/08/14/o...

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Seth Jolly @sethkjolly.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

I'm thrilled to share the latest @chesdata.bsky.social paper "A Global Scale of Economic Left–Right Party Positions: Cross-National and Cross-Expert Perceptions of Party Placements", out now at JOP, where we compare expert ratings from Europe, Latin America, Australia, Israel, Canada, & the US.

journals.uchicago.edu

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Sebastian Karcher @adam42smith.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

I'm hiring an Associate Director for the Center for Qualitative & Multi-Method Inquiry: www.sujobopps.com/postings/114... Run IQMR, work on QDR, help run events around methods @maxwellsu.bsky.social - great for recent MA or PhD interested in alt-ac 1/2

sujobopps.com

Associate Director, Center for Qualitative and Multi-Method Inquiry (CQMI)

Work collaboratively with the Director of the Center for Qualitative and Multi-Method Inquiry (CQMI). Lead the planning and logistics for the annual Institute for Qualitative and Multi-method Research...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Meta-Weezer. This is so good, and best enjoyed in video form, though the song (tongue-in-cheek or not) is bangin' too. www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0N5...

youtube.com

Weezer - C.E.O. (Official Music Video)

YouTube video by weezer

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Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

You can tell this is 100% true by the presence of 100s of thousands of Russian troops in Ukraine

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Brian Taylor @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

A week ago I was sent this graphic showing Ukraine had hit 10 of 11 biggest Russian oil refineries producing gasoline. I thought hitting #1 in Omsk, in Siberia, was a refinery too far. Silly me.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

For you? Of course I do. Send me your songs. I will bring it tomorrow. (also, specify if you want a 90-minute or 60-minute tape)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Restrictions to stop capital from leaving China. Restrictions to stop AI engineers from leaving China.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Financially? Nothing, as far as I can tell. No swap lines yet, of course. Just discussions. But I think viewing the discussions as politically (not economically) motivated is right.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

It's the gift that keeps on giving!

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Not sure if anyone else can relate, but about half of my family's glasses growing up were empty dried beef jars.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

"insecurity complex" is a great term. I think that's the minimalist, alternative explanation. They think they need to resort to such measures to ward of threats. A more troubling scenario would be that UAE asked for this as a way to stop it from exploring options that it knew would upset the US.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

(which, to be fair, may not be what has occurred. but it seems possible given the statements)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Precisely. That would be the sort of scenario that I'm referencing here.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Abandon is far too strong, I agree. That's not a realistic option. But begin to explore other options? That's more realistic. Bessent's framing of this to the public implies that these swaps would "counter" alternative payment systems, which sounds defensive.

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