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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

One more thing: this article was several years in the making, and one fraught with strange detours and challenges--not least of which was acquiring data from a survey firm in a country under heavy sanctions. Thanks to everyone who helped us overcome these challenges along the way.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The experimental results also point to sanctions as the reason for the declining appeal of dollars in Russia. Our sanctions treatment increased the likelihood that wealthy Russians believed it to be "unwise" to save dollars, while our FX restrictions treatment had no effect. 6/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Moreover, this effect was strongest among wealthy Russians, the group most likely to find dollar savings to be less useful and more fraught with risk post-sanctions. 4/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Western sanctions led to a sharp drop in the share of Russians who thought it was wise to save in dollars--consistent with a de-dollarization story. 3/7

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Some people chase trends. I am not some people.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Restrictions to stop capital from leaving China. Restrictions to stop AI engineers from leaving China.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Not sure if anyone else can relate, but about half of my family's glasses growing up were empty dried beef jars.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Theses perks, or inducements, may be security guarantees or economic and financial benefits. Whatever the deal is, the logic is simple: a quid pro quo, or negotiation, is required to maintain dominance. (8/10)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

For Strange, a "negotiated" currency is a step down from a "top" currency. The latter's dominance is sustained entirely by economic incentives. However, when those incentives are no longer enough, the issuing country can provide "perks" to maintain dominance. (7/10)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

If the pathbreaking British political economist Susan Strange were here, she might suggest that this is a sign the dollar is becoming a "negotiated currency", a concept introduced in her landmark book "Sterling and British Policy" (1971). (6/10)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

The implication is that the US is now considering offering inducements to select countries to keep their eyes from wandering to currency alternatives amid a disruptive war. @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics has a nice piece related to this: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog... (5/10)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

In grad school I worked really hard to train my brain that "data" = plural, and now this is what's become of us.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

There is some evidence that citizens who are incumbent/regime supporters react positively to Chinese bailouts, though the findings here are less robust, as we only find this in the case of Argentina. (6/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Our interpretation is that for these individuals, China's generosity is seen as a self-serving tool designed to prop up a government/regime that benefits Beijing, but that they oppose. (5/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The effect of info about Chinese bailouts depends on citizens' political views. Specifically, individuals who oppose the incumbent government/regime exhibit more *negative* views about economic cooperation with China when informed about past bailouts. (4/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The results? Among the full national samples: a big fat nothingburger. Info about Chinese bailouts has no effect on views toward cooperation with China, suggesting bailouts aren't an effective tool of statecraft from a public opinion perspective. But that's not all. (3/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

We use survey experiments on representative samples in Argentina, Turkey, & Russia to answer the question. Respondents were asked about their level of support for econ cooperation with China. Half were first reminded that China had previously bailed out their government (2/7) (AI generated image)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

New research on Chinese economic statecraft, with David Steinberg (@johnshopkinssais.bsky.social) & @seaytac.bsky.social now out in World Development. We consider the question: do Chinese foreign bailouts increase public support for closer economic ties to China in recipient countries? A 🧵 (1/7)

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Tickets for the home opener: $80 a pop Meeting your childhood baseball hero on the walk to the stadium: priceless. #PutKennyInCooperstown

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

"The official soundtrack of US negotiations with Iran."

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

It was only a "historic correction" for those who got in between January 19 and January 29. For everyone else, there was no correction.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

We all agree that when the inevitable movie about the early days of AI is made in ten years or so, Matthew Rhys is automatically slotted into the Dario Amodei role, right?

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

This is not an unreasonable argument. 2009-2013 was a period of growing int'l use for the RMB, which also happened to be a period of dollar weakness and expectations of RMB appreciation. (selections from a 2015 paper co-authored with Steven Liao) 10/

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Presently, the pro-RMBI camp isn't using dollar weaponization to justify their position, but rather pointing to expectations of dollar weakness, RMB strength, and rising geopolitical risk to push their case. (screenshots from the Bloomberg story) 9/

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Economist Yu Yongding made a similar argument in 2018 (see below, from my book). 7/

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

There have been internal political squabbles over renminbi internationalization (RMBI) dating back to the late-aughts. Here's a snippet from a paper I published with David Steinberg on RMBI back in 2017 that broadly summarizes the political cleavages. 2/

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

PBOC guidance to state-owned enterprises to conduct more cross-border business in renminbi, from last April.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

PBOC Chair Pan's speech from last summer.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

If you're keeping score, other recent examples: Xi Jinping's "reserve currency" remarks at the end of last month.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Quite literally the $64,000 question: Should you buy Bitcoin? 😄

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Totally agree that US debt isn't performing so badly when compared to that of other major industrialized economies. Relative to the US, investors don't seem enamored with those options either. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

Link: thetwocents.substack.com/p/the-safe-a...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 05/02/2026

"With the dollar no longer a reliable hedge against falls in risky assets..."

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Some more of my dollar thoughts below in this good @AP piece, "Seeking shelter from Trump’s fury, U.S. trade partners reach deals with each other" Link: apnews.com/article/trum...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

On one hand, I get this point that I've seen made several times OTOH, the issue w/ these long-term charts is that it implies that all other conditions in the US and world economy are constant. But they are not. 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% in 2012, its 4.2% today, for example.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

The only thing hotter than gold right now is measles.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

The dollar is falling. How do Americans feel about this? David Steinberg & I asked about this on a November 2024 survey. Only 16% agreed that the US should devalue the dollar; 42% disagreed. 72% agreed that dollar dominance is a good thing. Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

You can't get better currency analysis than what @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social provides, and his take on the dollar is sobering. Read his full post here: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/dollar-col...

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

A striking statistic about the state of podcasting: About half of all podcasts are listened to only by the podcast producers and their moms.

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

There's a dollar "vibe shift" happening now that is different from past bouts of dollar pessimism. You might be skeptical. That's understandable since the de-dollarization narrative has been around for years now, and little has changed about the dollar's global position. 1/

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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Adam Posen (@adamposen.bsky.social) has it correct here. There are very few positive signs for the dollar right now, and a long list of negative signs that seems to be growing by the day.

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