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Adam Pollack

@crispapoll.bsky.social
518 followers 303 following 451 posts

Assistant professor @ Univ. of Iowa Flood-risk management and decision support research abpoll.github.io

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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
~Approximately no one in the general public knows because the leaders of the R1 research universities - whose budgets, programs, & personnel are entirely or significantly dependent on federal funding - have been totally absent from the public square in explaining & collectively protesting this.
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The White House accord on AI that was signed by all the big tech oligarchs today misspells United States as “Unites States.”
Document signed by Trump, Sundar Pichai
Google
Dario Amodei
Anthropic
Mark Zuckerberg
Meta

Greg Brockman
OpenAl

Elon Musk
XAI

Jensen Huang
nvidia “Unites States”
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Wow, the gov. is intentionally introducing adverse selection into ACA to break it
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"See SI for full details"
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Agree! I just feel like msm loves taglines that sow distrust in federal agencies. Plenty of that to be had these days due to political appointees, but seems like we can explain this problem with beach towns and wealth residents privatizing public goods and socializing private losses
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Respectfully, that’s not the full story here. Among other details, during the last administration there was over $1B in some years available for predisaster voluntary flood buyouts. Perhaps more importantly, nobody forced homeowners to buy these properties
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
lol I’m sorry how is this FEMAs fault? Sure, we can talk about pre vs post disaster mitigation but maybe not for homes on beaches
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Going forward, the US National Science Foundation research budget for all atmospheric, ocean, and Earth sciences is $110 million per year. Trump's illegal war with Iran cost the Department of Defense (i.e., the American taxpayers) $38 billion in the first 5 months, or $220 million per day.
cbo.gov
Estimating the Cost of Combat Operations Against Iran
CBO assesses the Department of Defense's costs for the current armed conflict against Iran, as well as the conflict's economic and budgetary effects.
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The White House plans to amend the National Climate Assessment to question RCP8.5. Last week, I, @jsmankin.bsky.social, and @vsrikrish.bsky.social commented that this proposal is "scientifically unsupported and procedurally deficient". You can see our comment here: essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
essopenarchive.org
Comment on Proposed Amendment to the Fifth National Climate Assessment | ESS Open Archive
This document is a public comment regarding the proposed amendment to the fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). The amendment directs any NCA5 results that are “dependent on RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, or e...
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Sorry for the lack of clarity!! I meant OP as in who you quoted. I think the way you did it is picture perfect! My last post was rushed and filled with typos 😅
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Thank you attributing!! Christoph was my PhD advisor :) I was pretty gimpy grumpy when I saw OP did not attribute it to him or his paper
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I wrote this quickly at a bus stop and didn't realize it would go viral, or else I would have worded it better. But the point is that the media is too credulous about AI killing everyone in 10 years (how?) when climate change is killing people now and will only get worse (we know exactly how).
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Waldo Jaquith @waldo.net · 11/09/2026
Here’s how the New York Times describes this moment in their coverage:
At one point Mr. Trump asked attendees to raise their right hands and pledge to him that he would vote with their family and friends.
Dutifully, they did.
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I feel lucky at least once on each leg of my bike commute each day. Cars make people so undisciplined - including me! We need better infrastructure/design. 3 profs during my PhD had serious bike commute accidents. Idk why we're so idle on this problem. Riding bikes is so fun and efficient!
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
🇵🇸Tim Henke (tɪm 'ɦɛŋ.kə) @timhenke.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Terence Tao, who is otherwise quite bullish on AI, had this to say:
Terence Tao writes on mastodon:

Fundamentally, problems in pure mathematics, such as the global regularity problem, serve a different purpose than immediately practical problems, such as that of finding a cure to a specific disease, or increasing the energy efficiency of some engine.  In most cases in pure mathematics, the problems are posed not because we desperately want the solution to these problems in and of themselves, but because we have seen from past experience that human-directed efforts to solve these problems tend to spur further development of the field through the efforts to solve such problems, and then to digest any partial or complete solutions that emerge for further insights.  Prematurely solving the problem by purely AI-powered methods - particularly without full transparency into the solution process - can contaminate this process to the point where it actually becomes a net negative for the progress of mathematics as a whole.  (6/6)
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Lmk if I can help!
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Gotta print out a few of your memes for the office
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Omg! Seriously worth a Matters Arising... (www.nature.com/ncomms/submi...)
nature.com
Matters Arising | Nature Communications
Matters Arising
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
But according to the author of the paper, we can ignore pesky local hydrology in order to learn the real physical rules! lnkd.in/p/gzNq6z46
lnkd.in
We did not teach AI how floods work from scratch. Instead, we fed it decades of expert flood maps and asked it to learn the pattern. FEMA’s coverage represents decades of work by hydrologists and… | ...
We did not teach AI how floods work from scratch. Instead, we fed it decades of expert flood maps and asked it to learn the pattern. FEMA’s coverage represents decades of work by hydrologists and eng...
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
AERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
📢 What’s current in #REEP? 📢 "Managing Unpriced Climate Risks in US Housing Markets" by Jesse D. Gourevitch, Karina French, Carolyn Kousky, Yanjun (Penny) Liao, Adam Pollack, and Joakim A. Weill. 📎Open access: buff.ly/Rv2hjow 📈📉 #EconSky
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Palok Biswas @pbiswas.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
🎉 Our paper is out in Nature Portfolio npj Climate Action! 👉 📃 www.nature.com/articles/s44... 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠: The choice of justice framing in climate models fundamentally determines both the global ambition for decarbonization and who bears its burden.
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Genuinely can't wait! It would be helpful to be able to better distinguish what's relevant for technical, normative, moral, legal, etc. questions in this space
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Oh, I messed up the link before ago.nebraska.gov/sites/defaul...
ago.nebraska.gov
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
I haven't seen anything like this before. It seems like this isn't a question of whether posting these scores on websites is permissible, but whether the way FS advertises about its scores and methodology is permissible or "deceptive trade practices" under NB code (would love a legal fact check!)
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
It kind of comes off as throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. Plenty of factual claims, but also many imprecise ones. Not sure what needs to be shown for the legal issues at hand
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
With an appearance from @jdossgollin.bsky.social ! "138. Indeed, as James Doss-Gollin, an assistant professor of engineering and climate-risk specialist at Rice University has observed...”
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Wow! FS sued by Nebraska AG for harming Nebraska homeowners @madisoncondon.bsky.social @kellyhereid.bsky.social
ago.nebraska.gov
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Extending the metaphor... bsky.app/profile/benc...
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
The Onion @theonion.com · 20/08/2026
Scalpers Jack Up Price Of Colorado Rockies Ticket To $11 theonion.com/scalpers-jack-up-price…
Scalpers Jack Up Price Of Colorado Rockies Ticket To $11
Fans Ask How Ball Club Still Has Heart To Charge Admission At All
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Ah yes, my favorite beach reads
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Start with "Managing Unpriced Climate Risk in US Housing Markets" with an all star team including @crispapoll.bsky.social @jgourevitch.bsky.social and the great Carolyn Kousky www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Managing Unpriced Climate Risks in US Housing Markets | Review of Environmental Economics and Policy: Vol 20, No 2
AbstractClimate risks are not fully priced in US housing markets. This mispricing can distort household decision-making and may create perverse incentives for development in high-risk areas. Unpriced ...
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
It's kind of funny because it is classical decision theory to use regret-based metrics in the face of uncertainty and unknowns but a lot of financial regulation chooses decision timelines that kick that can down the road for the future regulator
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Really heart wrenching
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
vincentholst.bsky.social @vincentholst.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
In 2023, @nature.com published 'Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time', receiving world-wide media attention. Our Matters Arising, published after a 32 month delay (more on that soon), shows that the reported decline can largely be attributed to dataset artefacts. 🧵
The average CD_5 index per year for Web of Science. The original Park et al. decline (top curve) becomes essentially flat (bottom curve) when removing papers with CD_5=1. Those papers largely correspond to dataset artefacts.
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Very interesting! Can you provide add'l context on: "We found...the climate signal results in an additional 3.68 (95% CI: 0.27–6.58) properties each year...for a 1-in-10 year pluvial flooding event" How many properties overall? Can the drainage partially handle a .1% event?
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
"We found that between 1981 and 2044 the climate signal results in an additional *3.68 (95% CI: 0.27–6.58)* properties each year being at risk of flooding in southeast Leeds (for a 1-in-10 year pluvial flooding event" I don't know about that 95% CI
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
I find it difficult to keep track of the event intensities, but it seems like 1-in-10 or 1-in-17.5, so I'm thinking the results would be quite sensitive to grid resolution and drainage network. Not to mention issues with land use classification as opposed to where buildings are (and how high)
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Also, even if drainage capacity is exceeded, the system still takes water from the surface. And, at least one of the main results is based on the .1% event - maybe the drainage system can handle these events?
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Interesting. I appreciate the authors acknowledging issues of a 30m grid resolution and lack of drainage, but I think these are worth considering more in light of the results. 30m grid will tend to inflate the urbanization attribution. (1/2)
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
KinarNicholas.bsky.social @kinarnicholas.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Hydrology Paper of the Day @madisoncondon.bsky.social and colleagues on why transparency and open data and tools are required for assessing and dealing with climate risk: the need for data standards to reduce barriers; addressing sensitive data; respecting Indigenous knowledge; and best practices.
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Wow, great to see! NOAA/NWS tend to be more real-time operational - will there be any federal agency focus on long-term resilience/adaptation?
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Spending 15 minutes per day two-factor authenticating myself is such a unique soul-sucking experience
A cartoon of Waldo in a bar looking sad and talking to nobody in particular, saying "Nobody ever asks 'How's Waldo?'" with an emphasis on "How"
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Wow, survivorship bias with all those travails! Imagine the untold stories!
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
This is so cool! Something very tricky about design standards is that they typically vary by return period and rainfall duration for different infrastructure and places/codes. I'm actually not too familiar with 100yr, 24hr projects
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Reposted by Adam Pollack
Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The US built the greatest talent magnet ever, attracting the smart, skilled, and striving. They’d come to study, then stay and build things here, or leave with positive impressions and fruitful connections. Helped make the US wealthy and powerful. Then America chose to throw it away. And for what?
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Yuchen did some comparisons with NOAA Atlas 14, and all the code is available :) iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... There's also a this recent paper that looks at the many, many "100-yr" rainfall events and their very different floods: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Not exactly what you asked for, but they have the expertise and machinery to do it!
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Here's a nice analysis and write-up on an event by @jdossgollin.bsky.social's recent PhD grad whose thesis is "Probabilistic analysis of nonstationary hydroclimate extremes" dossgollin-lab.github.io/SanJac2024_I...
dossgollin-lab.github.io
Analysis of Extreme Rainfall on the San Jacinto River
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Fair enough! Not a fire expert either, but would love to read a study like that
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Adam Pollack @crispapoll.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Oh, interesting. Are you aware of any analyses that compare managed/unmanaged and pin down the suppression/management effecst vs. climate driver effects?
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