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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

mini AK primary thread: 2026's primary saw a large D turnout edge a la 2024, but different under the hood This year, the TO gap was super weighted to younger voters. How much higher Dem 18-24 TO was vs Rs in... 2024 - 1.3% 2026 - 12.4% The TO gap among 65+ voters shrank!

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 5h

QOTD: How do you plan to vote? Early, by mail, absentee, or election day?

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 6h

Sam Alito for the Democrats, inadvertently:

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 6h

Hey guys, do you want an October surprise while losing by 10 in the polls?

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 6h

It is ridiculous that these SCOTUS justices feel the need to do TV interviews at all. You would not see me yapping and bragging on TV about how I’m more important than every person in the country

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 6h

For the record, Alito is a narcissistic moron for going on TV and giving even more Dems a reason to vote in November, and then bringing up even more unpopular SCOTUS topics. You have to imagine John Thune is going crazy bc this moron cannot shut the fuck up for one month!

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

…honestly, the answer is alright, and I have to say Tina Kotek is at least a better candidate than Kate Brown. Economic situation was worse in 2022, but Kotek overcame the spoiler candidate and a SHAVE that was 10.6 pts redder than 2018 to only do ~3-4% worse by margin And Drazan < Knute

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 10h

Do you like the kind of content we provide, and want to help us? Consider donating to us! Nothing on the website now will ever be paywalled, so for the time being, donations are the only way you can show your support for high-quality election analysis. LINK: buy.stripe.com/6oUfZgarW32s...

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Stripe Checkout

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 10h

Young people hateeeeeee unnecessary rises in their cost of living and are starting to tune in? oh

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 11h

While I don't think our crosstab averages are gospel, I do find it interesting that on the age crosstab, most of the improvement for Dems in September was with young people. They could be the reason why in September, Dems went from a 5.5% lead, to a 9% lead. LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

So, there’s very little study on what I guess is “embarrassed bias”, but I’ve always thought that the recalled vote on Brexit has a similar effect. Eg. too many people are claiming they voted Remain when, in fact, they voted Leave. But that’s almost impossible to backtest now.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

before you all panic, the estimated effect of adding a more expansive voter screen would take us from an insane blue tsunami D+15 environment to merely a D+11 or D+12. Ugh, getting 2010 in reverse, how disappointing! /s

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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

And don’t crosstab dive! The most important things you can glean are recalled vote, top line, presidential approval and undecideds! A lot of regional and racial crosstab noise tend to balance themselves out.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

An emerging civil war (pt. 2 of an earlier civil war) that is more likely than not to turn into a full-scale invasion of Eritrea 🫠

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Really tough not having any context for more obscure international events on here. Would like to have Bluesky coverage from Ethiopia, but mostly been following that via Twitter and news

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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Man this really shows how poor the GOP PAC money really is. Nationally they only have a 7% lead in airings despite a nearly 30% advantage in spending Brown still has a lead in Ohio airings!

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

This was some good analysis casting doubt on those D+15 YouGov blue wave polls…the LV screen filtered out all who will “probably” vote, which were 2:1 Republican self-ID. We identified a few pollsters w/very strict LV screens that are 5-7% bluer, probabilistic screens do not have that.

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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 01/10/2026

NEW: I noticed something in a couple of recent polls that gave me some caution against a few of the more bullish results for Democrats, and how the definition of the likely voter can have a significant impact on the final outcome of the poll. LINK: electioncord.com/the-likely-v...

electioncord.com

The Likely Voter Screen: How the Definition of a Likely Voter Can Change the Result of a Poll

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

They sorta did nothing in late 2018 and it did stabilize the situation

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

SCOTUS set him up to just do nothing by reversing tariffs and he proceeded to do something even more damaging

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Could always argue it would’ve leveled out like it did in 2018-19 if he didn’t do anything stupid. But, of course, he did (his approvals dropping in 2020 were also because Of stupid Covid response)

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I pretty much agree here; the war was such a catastrophically bad decision and is why we're in Dem Senate territory www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-...

theargumentmag.com

The least popular war since Vietnam

Trump’s war on Iran is dragging the whole Republican Party down

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Stealing this from The Argument, but could really make the argument the recent movement from D+5 to D+9 is all “muh gas”. Outside of some parts of the Northeast Corridor, there is no other local story.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Lots of statewide Dems underperform in WA as well. PNW and NorCal people who are liberal, but don’t like paying taxes for often nonexistent services.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Checking on this DHM poll, the Oregon Republicans could not have been dumber by running Drazan, who already ran statewide and was defined as a MAGA insane person. If they ran someone with better favs. Anyway, the remaining voters are leaning Kotek, so Dems likely win www.opb.org/pdf/OPB%20Fa...

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Bruh, that Oregon political simulator game is harder than saving the Weimar Republic

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Mike Rogers may end up as the federal candidate with the most negative ads spent against him in the 2020s. the Dems will have spent close to $200M running against the guy in just 2 years. And no, that does not bode well for his chances, he’s totally defined and 97% of Dems will never vote for him.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

the worst idea is Kelly/Ossoff in whatever order, yes just open up two Senate seats rather than having popular incumbents run again. Great plan.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I do wonder if Republicans regret running Rogers now. You aren’t going to peel off Dems with a retread candidate who already had a year of negative ads against him.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

funny how the unity ticket coverage got way less engagement than infighting

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I would imagine that the Marist crosstabs here would see even less of a swing with Whites, however

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Does JD Vance really add enough to the ticket to justify now potentially losing this seat for two years...I don't think so

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This race has made me question why the Republicans thought it'd be good idea to open up the Senate seat early in the first place. I'd go as far to say that Dems should avoid picking any sitting Senators for VP unless it's a state where they can do appointments for the whole term...

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Marist doesn’t weight by party, so it reflects Dem enthusiasm (Yeah they’re too blue, but that tells us something?)

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

These are really some huge divergences, what bizarre political realignment is going on here?

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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 30/09/2026

I made this live on-stream, shows the 5 Marist polls we have gotten in late September!

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In that environment, Lawrence, Hines and KMR all win. McCann vs. I would say Huizenga would be tilt R, however. He won by 12 in 2024 and his district would only be narrowly won by AES with these margins. unless they can really knock down Huizenga in ads, would be hard at ”just” D+9

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The Marist Congressional ballot was D+9 Would be about a 10pt swing left from 2024 (d+7-8 national implied)

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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026

The main reason? 81% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, while 71% of Republicans say the same thing. I also imagine the independents are split like this. For what it's worth though, I would have included definitely and probably will vote in an LV screen.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I am a very serious leftist and agree with Nigel Farage and a bunch of alt-right boomers on handing them money indefinitely.

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Reposted by World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther

ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 30/09/2026

We are doing a test stream for election day! If you join, we might answer some of your questions! LINK: www.twitch.tv/tepig4321

twitch.tv

Tepig4321 - Live on Twitch

ElectionCord: Test Stream | Streaming politics.

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Of course this absolutely moronic messaging goes over well on bluesky 😭

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Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

so something that i'm noticing in NJ mail-in voting is that early returns are way up across the board the return rate for democrats is currently 13.3%, which is almost double that of the return rate at this point last year (7.3%) even GOP mail returns are up even though that increase is not as big

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

yeah, it's normal. You're never going to get everyone onside in an election

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