World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 9hif this happens in Brazil too, I'm gonna be apoplectic 030
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 9hThis is a note for complete nerds, but we saw a rather interesting diversion from the usual Brazilian vote counting pattern today. The right had a surge up in the first 25% of the count, and then the regular pattern ensued. Kinda confusing, was there more early voting? urnaaberta.com.br 282
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 10hcorporate wants you to find the difference between these two pictures 3171
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 12hyeah that's not gonna be likely 110
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 12hImagine voting for Flavio Bolsonaro while you live in Palestine. Apparently, 4% did this. Lizardman voters are real people 1252
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 12hOrlando voted 78.7% Bolsonaro 🤣🤣🥲 4374
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 14hGlobal alliance of federal bureaucrats swinging left 3293
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Stealing this from The Argument, but could really make the argument the recent movement from D+5 to D+9 is all “muh gas”. Outside of some parts of the Northeast Corridor, there is no other local story. 4273
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Checking on this DHM poll, the Oregon Republicans could not have been dumber by running Drazan, who already ran statewide and was defined as a MAGA insane person. If they ran someone with better favs. Anyway, the remaining voters are leaning Kotek, so Dems likely win www.opb.org/pdf/OPB%20Fa... 161
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Trump's approval on the economy with young people is -62 with the 18-29 cohort. That means a significant chunk of young conservatives basically hate his economy (note that it's just -12 and -9 with the older age cohorts). 060
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026On NYT/Siena, 91% of people 18-29 thought the economy was fair or poor. 62% outright thought it was poor. Crazy, but this might be more impactful than your insane psychosexual obsession with politicians' tweets. 150
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026AOC certainly trying to say…something (???) about her 2028 plans in this text 4642
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026(Apology for using RCP, but 538's chart of this is erased) It's underdiscussed how Trump managed to rescue his favorables after the 2022 midterm failure for R's You can see it start to perk up as Biden dipped in 2022, but the last surge had to be from the 2024 primary campaign ads. 3140
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The greatest trick Mamdani ever pulled was getting the whole left-wing ecosystem to lock in for 3 months. 1120
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Lakshya Jain identifying a similar potential error with whites I mean, there are practically infinite ways a poll can be wrong (I identified at least 13 for this cycle), so you just have to hope it’s accurate. (And yes, if more of them arrive, then the defection rate would decrease) 4170
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Oh, and also bc Donalds is winning Hispanic voters by 7% 271
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Bit of an astonishing result here with Trump's approval going down, but Donalds opening up a larger lead because Republicans are really excited and Dems are not. 290
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I do think this effect may end up happening, especially in regard to what appears to be meh polling in New Mexico or especially California Every Prop 50 poll in CA 2025 vastly undershot the margin, this ended up being Yes +29, but no polls indicated that. 171
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026presented without comment 1190
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Ehhhh I don’t think millennials are getting let off the hook here. 000
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The need to dunk on Woke 1 is so powerful. It does give some medieval peasant vibes, tbh 0242
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026ppl on here reading that Boston Globe story 1353
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I like that in March 2024, I correctly suggested the Dems could have a silver bullet to move the electorate 5% left, but still lose. And then proceeded to mostly ignore my own logic. Nice. Yes, 2023-24 were very conservative times. 290
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026March 2024 was the apogee of the conservative vibe shift. I wrote about it, no one liked it, but it was very prescient! hacksanonymous.substack.com/p/the-dire-m... 190
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I feel like the narrative of the Pacific Palisades Fire and its aftermath destroying Karen Bass’ career is very easy to see. Bass is at -35 on this Berkeley poll and needs to essentially get Pratt voters to back her. How is that going to work? 290
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026They did release crosstabs for this, it turns out nonwhite Dems really, really care about the economy and relegated a lot of other issues. White Dems much less so, this is probably the largest split I've seen between the two on an issue, normally in polls of all adults it's closer. 070
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Hmm Liberal Currents did a top issue for Dems poll. Cost of living/economy dominates. If you squint, there are some differences with progressives really wanting healthcare/foreign policy reforms and liberals wanting to prosecute Trump. www.liberalcurrents.com/what-are-dem... 151
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 22/09/20261 person has voted in New Hampshire. 090
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 21/09/2026this part I don't really see, we saw much larger urban dropoffs on every exit poll and the voter file. It happened in the South, too, the turnout drop was all in cities (and disproportionately hurt Dems). We didn't see persuasion gains for Dems in suburbs, however. 110
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 21/09/2026well, that would be correct. 050
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026The Talarico/Ossoff joint ad is going to explode fundraising for them again. At least this time, most of their links are being split between the candidates and the state parties, so downballot races will be assisted. 14712
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Didn’t check my username award 080
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 17/09/2026AdImpact finally tossing out an important number: actual ads aired with campaign spending in September so far You can see Dem candidate spending is helping out here, Sherrod is being outspent, but had more ads aired. 1222
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Age is a very good proxy for political knowledge 2727
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Here are the official crosstabs for this Yes, a staggering 22% of 18-29 voters YouGov/BGSU sampled in Ohio think Democrats control Congress 1517640
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026This seat isn’t even that close either, saw a huge swing to Reform 020
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026a little confused why you decided to run as a Reform candidate when you were opposed to using the party as a tool for Nigel Farage 281
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Everyone on here has heard of IL-09 (the Kat Abu race), but I don't think anyone has done a precinct analysis of IL-08, where moderate Melissa Bean managed to book a return trip to Congress by defeating Junaid Ahmed. Bean had a very broad coalition, Ahmed failed to make many inroads (lack of $$?) 052
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Here are the issues with <1% or 0 020
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Not many surprises on the volunteered top issues for NYT/Siena Of note, the Iran War is moving foreign policy up the list to higher than it was previously. Data centers is at <1% (Note this probably looks awful w/phone screenshot) 264
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Angie Nixon vs. Alex Vindman is a crazy polarized coalition, but perhaps most interesting is that Nixon held up very, very well with lower-income Whites. Vindman could not win anyone outside of the rich White bloc, which is powerful in FL, but not everything. 0151
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Byron Donalds did best in Latino areas and his coalition was closely related to amount of education. Interesting. 061
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026A meeting in Montreal *hint* 080
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Fun fact about Nebraska and Osborn, the 2024 independent/populist/pseudoconservative shtick worked best in more Republican areas. His overperformance of Harris in Douglas County (Omaha) was actually much worse than in other parts of the state. 2193
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026This new "center-right" group is actually even more pro-immigrant than 2016, I do wonder if that's bc they've added a ton of nonwhites to it (who are now angry) 040
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026A good up-down illustration of this was comparing "America's openness" to "is sex determined at birth" The two former "libertarian" blocs (middle and polite right) are left of the general population on America being open to outsiders, but to the right on sex at birth. Hard problem to fix. 281
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026pretty sure Zohran hasn't run any commercials in 2026, so he spent $8.8M on TV ads for the primary and general. The fact he got up on TV at all for the primary likely saved him 070
World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026TBH, Zohran's win over Cuomo in the primary was quietly a story of ads ads ads (plus building your own media) > organizing. The actual primary campaign spending was actually advantage Zohran by 800K (Cuomo was reliant on IEs the whole time). Thanks, public matching. 1150
