iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

IA-GOV is very obviously Likely D at this point He leads by 9 points in the average Also look at some other numbers for Rob Sand in this NYT/Siena poll Net favourability: +22 Is Rob Sand too far left? Too far left: 23% (Dems 53%) Neither too far left nor too far right: 63% (Dems 35%)

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The shift towards Bolsonaro was most pronounced in the states in the south which are already the strongest areas for the right, though one of the biggest swings was also in Tocantins in the centre which has typically been a marginal but left-leaning state.

Considering that Lula ended up winning the second round in 2022 by a margin of less than 2 points, for the margin to have shifted 7 points in the first round in Bolsonaro's favour leaves him as the clear favourite to wind the runoff on 25 October.

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🇧🇷 In Brazil, polling averages had Lula up by between 1 to 4 points in the first round. In the end, this is was the final result 🔵F. Bolsonaro: 47.0% (+3.8) 🔴Lula: 45.2% (-3.2) ⚫️Others: 7.7% (-0.6) NE Brazil still delivered big margins for Lula, but every state shifted in favour of Bolsonaro

Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Reposted by Conrad

📚 As the new academic year gets underway, take a look at our Methods Briefs From conjoint analysis and polling to AI agents and LLM-assisted coding, these short guides offer practical introductions to methods and emerging challenges in public opinion research 🧵⬇️

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This is still going to a runoff, but Bolsonaro at the moment looking like he will finish ahead on the first round which is not what the polls were showing and would be hard for Lula to win the runoff from that

Paraíba (73% counted) 🔴Lula: 60.6% (-3.6) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 33.6% (+4.0) Acre (75%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 64.5% (+2.0) 🔴Lula: 28.5% (-0.8) Rondônia (68%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 65.9% (+1.5) 🔴Lula: 27.1% (-1.9)

🇧🇷These returns are not looking good for Lula at this stage Looking at some progressed states Federal District (91% counted) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 51.3% (-0.4) 🔴Lula: 38.1% (+1.2) Tocantins (81%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 50.7% (+6.7) 🔴Lula: 43.1% (-7.3) Paraná (76%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 60.2% (+4.9) 🔴Lula:30.8% (-5.2)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The Zionism is Racism motion is really grim. I've always thought of the Greens as a generally agreeable party, who are sometimes a bit overly simplistic and opportunistic. This change didn't happen overnight, but the motion solidifies that there is now a significant antisemitic part of the party

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I love how the NYT/Siena polls have Democrats winning the Senate, potentially with Kansas, and still has Susan Collins winning Maine.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I'm surprised we've had none from Rejoin EU when this feels like prime centrist FBPE territory

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I study politics for a living and even I want the leaflets to just stop 😭 For the record Green: 9 Labour: 4 Restore: 2 Reform: 1 Workers Party: 1 CPA: 1

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Oof, that's a pretty rough poll for Qiulae Wong. Also not great for the Greens, their party vote is down 6 points here as well.

Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

a) 70% —As long as the Tories are at least competitive for staying ahead of Reform I don't think they'll want to go through a change b) 60% Badenoch — Reform have lots of liabilities but Tory Party's bad image keeps this from being higher for me c) 25% — Path to a Labour win is clearer

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I didn't know who this guy is but I guess I have LatAm leftie vibes?

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Big shift among Māori voters at this election coming up according to this poll TPM of course will of course be hoping that this doesn't affect their focus on the electorate vote too much, but apparently Greens going hard for the electorate vote in Wairiki?? www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

rnz.co.nz

Poll says Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote

Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote with a new poll revealing a change described by commentators as "massive".

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It also means I'd be a little sceptical of the numbers in Te Tai Tonga because it's difficult to know how well they're picking up Ferris' support. bsky.app/profile/ocea...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The Labour vote did tend to be a bit closer to the mark, but still an average absolute error of 5 points. So Ngarewa-Packer being ahead by 12 is not nothing, but given the error we got last time, it doesn't mean it's particularly safe.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How good are these Māori electorate polls from Curia? Not great it turns out. They massively underestimated the TPM vote across the board, an average absolute error of 15 points. This was most pronounced here in Te Tai Hauāuru.

A close election in BC, what a shock!

I wonder if the polls are just gonna be a repeat of what we saw last time in the campaign period...

With WFA that's a benefit people used to recieve that they then suddenly didn't. That immediately feels unfair during a cost of living crisis for people who are already struggling, and for their relatives. But state pension keeps going up by a reasonable amount under the triple lock changes.

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And of course it did not stay like that, which is to show that initial reactions are not everything. I do think the key difference though is that WFA changes were immediate and very visible. A change to how pension increases are calculated that won't come in until 2030 is v different

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Was curious how a certain previous controversial change to welfare received by older people introduced by this Labour government polled when it was announced Turns out, means-testing WFA initially had net support when it was announced! Support: 47% Oppose: 38% DK: 15% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

Top-two primary system polling close in another poll. It's a slightly stronger 7 point lead, but still the most closely contested ballot measure. commonwealthbeacon.org/by-the-numbe...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

To be clear, I really don't think Andy Burnham will go for an early election. I just find it very curious the amount of stuff seemingly they're announcing at this point to go in the next manifesto...

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I wrote this thread up and expanded on it in a substack article I'm reminded of the old adage "all politics is local". In a small state like Maine, a statewide race can feel like a local affair. But the consequences of the local extend far beyond the state. conradaml.substack.com/p/the-state-...

conradaml.substack.com

The state of the race in New England

An analysis of the latest University of New Hampshire poll of the region

In Massachusetts, progressive ballot measure unsurprisingly have a clear lead It's essentially a tie on the question of switching to a top-two primary system (the system used in California and Washington) — imo the top two primary is awful and I hope this loses

In Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott may actually be in trouble as he seeks a sixth term. This UNH poll is the first one since he became governor in 2016 that shows behind in a gubernatorial election. The UNH approval tracker for Scott also shows for the first time he is not net positive.

NH-GOV is narrowing, though the advantage is still definitely with Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte. Democratic candidate Cinde Warmington has the same percentage of unfavourables even though she has much lower name recognition, which doesn't bode well for her chances.

UNH is showing NH-01 as surprisingly close, Democratic candidate Stefany Shaheen is only ahead by 4 points in a district that Kamala Harris won by 2 points Can be explained by Shaheen's net favs sitting at -19. Still, I don't really see this flipping red in >D+7 national year though I must say

In New Hampshire, the Senate race is now looking more like expectations, after the previous UNH poll had Republican candidate John Sununu ahead by 2 points. UNH now has Democratic candidate Chris Pappas ahead by 8, in line with NYT/Siena which had him ahead by 5.

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Polls so far in ME-02 have showed a slight advantage for Republican candidate Paul LePage — would make it a rare GOP pickup (one not due to redistricting) UNH now showing Democratic candidate Matt Dunlap ahead by 6 points. Trump won here by 9 points, would be consistent with a ~D+13 generic ballot

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ME-GOV is getting closer, but Hannah Pingree has a -4 net favourability compared to -21 for Bobby Charles, I don't see much room for the Republican to keep closing the gap, I'd keep this as Likely D

While NYT/Siena yesterday had Susan Collins up 3 points, UNH is today showing Troy Jackson up by 4 points. It's a close race basically! The two polls differ a lot on Collins' favourability NYT/Siena Collins: +3 Jackson: -8 UNH Jackson: -8 Collins: -14

UNH Survey Center | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | University of New Hampshire

UNH just dropped polls across New England and they're q interesting Key takeaways —ME-SEN remains close (it's a Tossup imo, not Lean D) —Phil Scott is genuinely vulnerable this cycle —Dems ahead in ME-02 —NH-01 is surprisingly close scholars.unh.edu/survey_cente...

scholars.unh.edu

The Survey Center conducts mail, telephone, Internet, E-mail, and self-administered surveys for university researchers, public agencies, non-profit organizations, private businesses, and media clients...

Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Reposted by Conrad

The complete and total collapse of state function in the face of far right extremists. It is frankly ludicrous that Daniel Thomas continues to be at large given the series of crimes committed which he has literally filmed.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Is it a good and workable policy? No. But is it going to expand the LibDems' appeal to new voters? No. But is it going to make their lives easier during coalition negotiations in a hung parliament? Also no www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Ed Davey promises £17bn income tax cut if Lib Dems are elected

Growth created by rejoining EU single market and customs union would fund change, Davey tells the party’s conference

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Means SPD+Linke+Grüne government (first time Grüne would be in a M-V govt.) Also 1.0% for FDP is just a disaster, FDP are now only represented in 4 Landtags, and also not in the Bundestag. Just in a terrible state lol.

Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

CDU are currently projected by Infratest dimap to be out of M-V Landtag! They have never not won seats in a Landtag before, pretty historic moment.

Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Reposted by Conrad

Not suprising that the Linke got the most votes among younger voters in Berlin. Yet, the size of their vote share among under-35 year-olds is stunning.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Es ist vielleicht joever für Bundeskanzler Merz :)

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Just to add to this, even only a third of Republicans think this proposal is appropriate!

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And also the opposition bloc is being dragged down in the average by Curia which is quite outlier-y at the moment having much worse numbers for the bloc than other pollsters which typically have the bloc at 50%+

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This is good news for Hipkins because it makes the likelihood of Opportunity supporting a Labour government more likely (they're not going to want to piss off their new voters), and if you include Opp's numbers with the left bloc then they're maintain a small lead over the government at the moment.

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And this is reflected in other question asked in the poll, most notably whether they want Opportunity to support a National-led or Labour-led government if they hold the balance of power Current Opportunity voters 🔴Labour-led: 62% 🔵National-led: 25%

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