iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Have voted... along with seemingly half of Bluesky!

Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The shift towards Bolsonaro was most pronounced in the states in the south which are already the strongest areas for the right, though one of the biggest swings was also in Tocantins in the centre which has typically been a marginal but left-leaning state.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

🇧🇷 In Brazil, polling averages had Lula up by between 1 to 4 points in the first round. In the end, this is was the final result 🔵F. Bolsonaro: 47.0% (+3.8) 🔴Lula: 45.2% (-3.2) ⚫️Others: 7.7% (-0.6) NE Brazil still delivered big margins for Lula, but every state shifted in favour of Bolsonaro

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Paraíba (73% counted) 🔴Lula: 60.6% (-3.6) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 33.6% (+4.0) Acre (75%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 64.5% (+2.0) 🔴Lula: 28.5% (-0.8) Rondônia (68%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 65.9% (+1.5) 🔴Lula: 27.1% (-1.9)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

🇧🇷These returns are not looking good for Lula at this stage Looking at some progressed states Federal District (91% counted) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 51.3% (-0.4) 🔴Lula: 38.1% (+1.2) Tocantins (81%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 50.7% (+6.7) 🔴Lula: 43.1% (-7.3) Paraná (76%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 60.2% (+4.9) 🔴Lula:30.8% (-5.2)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I study politics for a living and even I want the leaflets to just stop 😭 For the record Green: 9 Labour: 4 Restore: 2 Reform: 1 Workers Party: 1 CPA: 1

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I didn't know who this guy is but I guess I have LatAm leftie vibes?

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How good are these Māori electorate polls from Curia? Not great it turns out. They massively underestimated the TPM vote across the board, an average absolute error of 15 points. This was most pronounced here in Te Tai Hauāuru.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I wonder if the polls are just gonna be a repeat of what we saw last time in the campaign period...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Was curious how a certain previous controversial change to welfare received by older people introduced by this Labour government polled when it was announced Turns out, means-testing WFA initially had net support when it was announced! Support: 47% Oppose: 38% DK: 15% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Top-two primary system polling close in another poll. It's a slightly stronger 7 point lead, but still the most closely contested ballot measure. commonwealthbeacon.org/by-the-numbe...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

In Massachusetts, progressive ballot measure unsurprisingly have a clear lead It's essentially a tie on the question of switching to a top-two primary system (the system used in California and Washington) — imo the top two primary is awful and I hope this loses

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

In Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott may actually be in trouble as he seeks a sixth term. This UNH poll is the first one since he became governor in 2016 that shows behind in a gubernatorial election. The UNH approval tracker for Scott also shows for the first time he is not net positive.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

NH-GOV is narrowing, though the advantage is still definitely with Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte. Democratic candidate Cinde Warmington has the same percentage of unfavourables even though she has much lower name recognition, which doesn't bode well for her chances.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

UNH is showing NH-01 as surprisingly close, Democratic candidate Stefany Shaheen is only ahead by 4 points in a district that Kamala Harris won by 2 points Can be explained by Shaheen's net favs sitting at -19. Still, I don't really see this flipping red in >D+7 national year though I must say

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

In New Hampshire, the Senate race is now looking more like expectations, after the previous UNH poll had Republican candidate John Sununu ahead by 2 points. UNH now has Democratic candidate Chris Pappas ahead by 8, in line with NYT/Siena which had him ahead by 5.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Polls so far in ME-02 have showed a slight advantage for Republican candidate Paul LePage — would make it a rare GOP pickup (one not due to redistricting) UNH now showing Democratic candidate Matt Dunlap ahead by 6 points. Trump won here by 9 points, would be consistent with a ~D+13 generic ballot

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

ME-GOV is getting closer, but Hannah Pingree has a -4 net favourability compared to -21 for Bobby Charles, I don't see much room for the Republican to keep closing the gap, I'd keep this as Likely D

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

While NYT/Siena yesterday had Susan Collins up 3 points, UNH is today showing Troy Jackson up by 4 points. It's a close race basically! The two polls differ a lot on Collins' favourability NYT/Siena Collins: +3 Jackson: -8 UNH Jackson: -8 Collins: -14

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

CDU are currently projected by Infratest dimap to be out of M-V Landtag! They have never not won seats in a Landtag before, pretty historic moment.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Just to add to this, even only a third of Republicans think this proposal is appropriate!

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

This is good news for Hipkins because it makes the likelihood of Opportunity supporting a Labour government more likely (they're not going to want to piss off their new voters), and if you include Opp's numbers with the left bloc then they're maintain a small lead over the government at the moment.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

New SVT projection based on 10% counted is much closer than the exit poll showed 😬

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Really interesting but makes sense, the Liberal coalition in Sweden has totally changed, becoming far more right-wing reflecting their stronger embrace of SD 39% of their 2022 voters lost to left-bloc parties Only 9% of their 2026 voters previously voted for a left-bloc party

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Labour drop in the polls is still going, but both major parties are now polling just below 30% on average. I can't find a single poll prior to this Parliament where that has happened The Labour+National vote had actually been pretty steady this Parliament until 2026 when Opportunity started rising

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

—Preference for a CDU-led government over an AfD-led govt (+9) However! —CDU+Linke+SPD+Grüne (net -29 approval) viewed as pretty much as unfavourably as a AfD+CDU govt (net -26) Apart from BSW, non-AfD voters still backing CDU over AfD, but they aren't happy about it...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

The exit poll questions are surprisingly good for the CDU given the vote percentage I think? —Clear lead on preferred Minister-President (+8) —Schulze has net positive job approval (+15), including across all parties except AfD and BSW —CDU is the least negatively viewed party

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

AfD remaining one short of a majority on the latest projection, but eyes will remain on those numbers until the bitter end no doubt...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Chris Pappas seemed a sure bet to win the US Senate race in New Hampshire. The latest UNH casts some doubt on that. Chris Pappas: 47% (-6) Karishma Manzur: 34% (+5) (Change w June '26 UNH poll) A progressive upset in a Democratic primary on the horizon? scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcont...

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

It's obviously still two years away but I struggle to see how Fetterman can win a primary with only 22% approval among Democrats lol (www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/u...)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

If you aggregate the primary votes by party in the Alaska US Senate primary so far 🔵DEM: 49.3% 🔴GOP: 48.6% ⚫️OTH: 2.1% And with the outstanding vote being mostly in Democratic House Districts, the Dem margin could increase by ~1pp once all the votes are counted

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Reform are out of touch with the vast majority of the public when they say things like this. Energy policy is certainly contested, but this is not America; the British public are largely agreed that climate change is a serious problem for the country.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The result is that the parliamentary left bloc (Lab+Grn+TPM) has gone from being only 2 points behind the government coalition (Nat+ACT+NZF) on average to now being 5 points behind — so more clearly behind But the parliamentary left+Opportunity is maintaining a 1 point lead over the government

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

What's interesting about this is that (according to Talbot Mills) only 18% of current Opportunity voters voted Labour in 2023, and it seems to be that most of the movement towards Opportunity in the polls is coming from Labour

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

I desperately need a better picture of City Hall that looks good in portrait but I just refuse to change it until I can think of something more me-coded!

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Closer than expected but it's open primary which can have high volatility, though would be curious to see where this sits in terms of historic polling misses cause El-Sayed was consistently leading by double digits in the latest polls Still a win is a win, and El-Sayed to me was a lot better!

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

Looking wistfully down under at a Labor government that has a competent PM with solid party discipline and is actually able to like, ya know, do stuff as a result

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Looking very likely that Greens will take control of Lewisham Council, was already likely once they won the mayoralty but now ward results are coming in They'd need a ~15% swing from Labour to win, only in Ladywell have they come just short of that but Grn vote was already high in 2022 there

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

All the Conservative held seats are in and for the most part they were ok, lost 2 to Labour, 2 to Reform, and 1 to the LibDems. Labour meanwhile is facing off a strong Green challenge in their seats, remains to be seen if there's any more areas where the Greens go the distance and win seats

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

The Tories hold on to their one seat in Tower Hamlets, in Island Gardens. But Labour lose their seat here to Aspire Island Gardens result 🏘️ASP: 26.2% (+1.2), 1 seat (+1) 🔵CON: 22.9% (-3.0), 1 seat (=) 🟢GRN: 18.1% (+4.7) 🔴LAB: 13.0% (-11.6), 0 seats (-1) 🟣RFM: 10.0% (+10.0) ⚫️OTH: 9.8% (-1.3)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Labour have lost two seats so far in Tower Hamlets, one to the Greens in Bow West and one to Aspire in Stepney Green You can in the Stepney Green result that their vote is splitting to both parties: 🏘️ASP: 47.6% (+8.0) 🟢GRN: 17.6% (+10.8) 🔴LAB: 16.2% (-19.9) ⚫️OTH: 18.6% (+1.1)

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Labour have flipped seats from the Tories in New Addington North and Waddon, but lost seats to the Greens in Crystal Palace & Upper Norwood and Fairfield. There aren't really any more Lab-Con marginals left to declare so I think those are done (net +2 for Labour) but other parties still in play

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Looks like Labour will remain the largest party on Croydon council, though probably in NOC. Tory vote is dropping by more than Labour's in the key wards. Labour's vote in general actually holding better than in the rest of London — though 2022 was worse for Labour in Croydon than rest of London.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Full result from Camden. 🌹Labour held on to their majority 🟢But it was a big swing across the borough from Labour to Green, particularly in the south of the borough 🟠LibDems got swings to them around Hampstead 🚩Andrew Feinstein's party Camden People's Alliance had an electoral pact w Greens

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Tories one seat short of a majority in Wandsworth, Enfield, and Barnet good coordinated trolling from the electorate

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

This was slept on, I didn't see much talk about Greens taking Waltham Forest but was absolutely a possibility and it's one of the more dramatic results so far in London

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

A pretty poor showing for Reform in the Croydon mayoral election. Outside of Havering they've been doing worse than expected basically everywhere in London.

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Obviously not brilliant for Labour but better than I'd ballparked I was expecting and wonder if they'll hold a bunch of seat too because the opposition is split between NIP and Greens

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Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

The result in South Hornchurch showing that Reform doing what they need to do to win control of Havering — i.e. winning seats from the RAs 🟣RFM: 38.0% (+38.0) 🏘️HRA: 25.6% (-18.0) 🔴LAB: 11.5% (-17.0) 🟢GRN: 8.7% (+3.7) 👤IND: 8.1% (+8.1) 🔵CON: 6.1% (-16.9) 🟠LD: 2.0% (+2.0)

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