Reposted by ConradDan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 08/10/2026Kemi Badenoch wants to exempt the family home from inheritance tax. But that creates a perverse incentive for elderly people to *upsize* to save IHT. That could double the cost of the policy, and push £100bn+ from savings into housing. A 🧵 on bad tax cuts. 44867366
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 07/10/2026What stands out here is Maipi-Clarke's approval is much higher than the others % saying doing good job Maipi-Clarke: 61% Waititi: 41% Ngawera-Packer: 37% Ferris: 29% Lines up with her being the incumbent so far whose vote share isn't dropping a lot in these Māori electorate Curia polls 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/10/2026IA-GOV is very obviously Likely D at this point He leads by 9 points in the average Also look at some other numbers for Rob Sand in this NYT/Siena poll Net favourability: +22 Is Rob Sand too far left? Too far left: 23% (Dems 53%) Neither too far left nor too far right: 63% (Dems 35%) 020
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/10/2026🇧🇷 In Brazil, polling averages had Lula up by between 1 to 4 points in the first round. In the end, this is was the final result 🔵F. Bolsonaro: 47.0% (+3.8) 🔴Lula: 45.2% (-3.2) ⚫️Others: 7.7% (-0.6) NE Brazil still delivered big margins for Lula, but every state shifted in favour of Bolsonaro 110
Reposted by ConradPublic Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 05/10/2026📚 As the new academic year gets underway, take a look at our Methods Briefs From conjoint analysis and polling to AI agents and LLM-assisted coding, these short guides offer practical introductions to methods and emerging challenges in public opinion research 🧵⬇️ 132
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 04/10/2026🇧🇷These returns are not looking good for Lula at this stage Looking at some progressed states Federal District (91% counted) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 51.3% (-0.4) 🔴Lula: 38.1% (+1.2) Tocantins (81%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 50.7% (+6.7) 🔴Lula: 43.1% (-7.3) Paraná (76%) ⚫️Bolsonaro: 60.2% (+4.9) 🔴Lula:30.8% (-5.2) 120
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 04/10/2026The Zionism is Racism motion is really grim. I've always thought of the Greens as a generally agreeable party, who are sometimes a bit overly simplistic and opportunistic. This change didn't happen overnight, but the motion solidifies that there is now a significant antisemitic part of the party 240
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I love how the NYT/Siena polls have Democrats winning the Senate, potentially with Kansas, and still has Susan Collins winning Maine. 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I study politics for a living and even I want the leaflets to just stop 😭 For the record Green: 9 Labour: 4 Restore: 2 Reform: 1 Workers Party: 1 CPA: 1 310
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Oof, that's a pretty rough poll for Qiulae Wong. Also not great for the Greens, their party vote is down 6 points here as well. 010
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I didn't know who this guy is but I guess I have LatAm leftie vibes? 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Big shift among Māori voters at this election coming up according to this poll TPM of course will of course be hoping that this doesn't affect their focus on the electorate vote too much, but apparently Greens going hard for the electorate vote in Wairiki?? www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...rnz.co.nzPoll says Māori are turning to the Greens for their party voteMāori are turning to the Greens for their party vote with a new poll revealing a change described by commentators as "massive". 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 30/09/2026How good are these Māori electorate polls from Curia? Not great it turns out. They massively underestimated the TPM vote across the board, an average absolute error of 15 points. This was most pronounced here in Te Tai Hauāuru. 110
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I wonder if the polls are just gonna be a repeat of what we saw last time in the campaign period... 110
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Was curious how a certain previous controversial change to welfare received by older people introduced by this Labour government polled when it was announced Turns out, means-testing WFA initially had net support when it was announced! Support: 47% Oppose: 38% DK: 15% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-... 110
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Top-two primary system polling close in another poll. It's a slightly stronger 7 point lead, but still the most closely contested ballot measure. commonwealthbeacon.org/by-the-numbe... 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 29/09/2026To be clear, I really don't think Andy Burnham will go for an early election. I just find it very curious the amount of stuff seemingly they're announcing at this point to go in the next manifesto... 020
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I wrote this thread up and expanded on it in a substack article I'm reminded of the old adage "all politics is local". In a small state like Maine, a statewide race can feel like a local affair. But the consequences of the local extend far beyond the state. conradaml.substack.com/p/the-state-...conradaml.substack.comThe state of the race in New EnglandAn analysis of the latest University of New Hampshire poll of the region 010
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 24/09/2026UNH just dropped polls across New England and they're q interesting Key takeaways —ME-SEN remains close (it's a Tossup imo, not Lean D) —Phil Scott is genuinely vulnerable this cycle —Dems ahead in ME-02 —NH-01 is surprisingly close scholars.unh.edu/survey_cente...scholars.unh.edu UNH Survey Center | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | University of New Hampshire The Survey Center conducts mail, telephone, Internet, E-mail, and self-administered surveys for university researchers, public agencies, non-profit organizations, private businesses, and media clients... 110
Reposted by ConradTom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The complete and total collapse of state function in the face of far right extremists. It is frankly ludicrous that Daniel Thomas continues to be at large given the series of crimes committed which he has literally filmed. 281173380
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Is it a good and workable policy? No. But is it going to expand the LibDems' appeal to new voters? No. But is it going to make their lives easier during coalition negotiations in a hung parliament? Also no www.theguardian.com/politics/202...theguardian.comEd Davey promises £17bn income tax cut if Lib Dems are electedGrowth created by rejoining EU single market and customs union would fund change, Davey tells the party’s conference 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 20/09/2026CDU are currently projected by Infratest dimap to be out of M-V Landtag! They have never not won seats in a Landtag before, pretty historic moment. 110
Reposted by ConradReto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Not suprising that the Linke got the most votes among younger voters in Berlin. Yet, the size of their vote share among under-35 year-olds is stunning. 26222
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Just to add to this, even only a third of Republicans think this proposal is appropriate! 031
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 16/09/2026This is good news for Hipkins because it makes the likelihood of Opportunity supporting a Labour government more likely (they're not going to want to piss off their new voters), and if you include Opp's numbers with the left bloc then they're maintain a small lead over the government at the moment. 100
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Freshwater Strategy has very different numbers for this, suggests it's a more left-leaning group 🟢Green: 26% 🔴Labour: 13% 🟠ACT: 9% 🔵National: 8% ⚫️NZ First: 3% 🟡Other*: 21% 🔴Left: 39% 🔵Right: 20% *Presumably mostly TOP voters www.thepost.co.nz/politics/361...thepost.co.nzIs Opportunity knocking? Meet the voters backing Qiulae WongWho is voting for Qiulae Wong’s Opportunity Party? New polling reveals where its supporters came from, and a striking preference for who they want to lead the next government. 100
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 15/09/2026So intrigued by the high levels of opposition to something that is normal in a number of other countries and seems to me to be a great way of countering the influence of wealthy donors 110
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026New SVT projection based on 10% counted is much closer than the exit poll showed 😬 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Really interesting but makes sense, the Liberal coalition in Sweden has totally changed, becoming far more right-wing reflecting their stronger embrace of SD 39% of their 2022 voters lost to left-bloc parties Only 9% of their 2026 voters previously voted for a left-bloc party 100
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Very similar to the SVT poll in terms of blocs, but has a better showing for SD and C, and a worse one for V and M 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Oh wow, SD doing worse than expected in the exit poll, look to be behind M now 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I remember SVT doing a sort of Eurovision-style reveal of the exit poll numbers in the last Swedish election so I really hope we get that again 100
Reposted by ConradGeorge Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Inheritance tax is paid by less than 5% of estates and couples can already transfer up to £1m in property tax-free. Abolishing it would be regressive, unmeritocratic and a bad use of £9bn. 3535896
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Labour drop in the polls is still going, but both major parties are now polling just below 30% on average. I can't find a single poll prior to this Parliament where that has happened The Labour+National vote had actually been pretty steady this Parliament until 2026 when Opportunity started rising 100
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Like I was listening to an interview with Ulrich Siegmund and he literally points to the Danish model of dealing with migrants as evidence that their position in not extreme! Co-opting far right idea does not keep them at bay, it provides them with legitimacy! 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026The thing about a successful cordon sanitaire is you need clarity about what it is that is objectionable about the far-right and why and too often these days mainstream parties really fail to set that out. 021
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026The exit poll questions are surprisingly good for the CDU given the vote percentage I think? —Clear lead on preferred Minister-President (+8) —Schulze has net positive job approval (+15), including across all parties except AfD and BSW —CDU is the least negatively viewed party 100
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026AfD remaining one short of a majority on the latest projection, but eyes will remain on those numbers until the bitter end no doubt... 000
Reposted by ConradMujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 06/09/2026The AfD’s victory was principally a mobilisation surge. The extraordinary increase in turnout - from 60.3% to around 76.5% was overwhelmingly advantageous to the AfD. People who had withdrawn from politics did not return to defend the centre; they returned to punish it 412682
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 06/09/2026The two exit polls are very similar —Very very slim majority for non-AfD parties —But within MoE that AfD could get majority —AfD did notably better than the polls, CDU notably worse —Seems like some would-be Linke voters tactically voted Grüne —BSW within MoE to reach threshold 120
Reposted by ConradDeutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 06/09/2026SACHSEN-ANHALT: Wahlbeteiligung um 16 Uhr (Urnenwahl), laut Landeswahlleitung 2026: 65,3% 2021: 41,0% 2016: 47,1% 2011: 40,2% 2006: 31,4% 2002: 44,4% 1998: 60,4% 1994: 43,8% #ltwst #ltwlsa 16929
Reposted by ConradDeutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 06/09/2026SACHSEN-ANHALT: Wahlbeteiligung um 14 Uhr (Urnenwahl), laut Landeswahlleitung 2026: 54,4% 2021: 27,1% 2016: 35,4% 2011: 28,5% 2006: 20,1% 2002: 30,8% #ltwst #ltwlsa 25114
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 05/09/2026What's even supposed to be so outrageous here, the Foreign Aid budget is already a set % of GNI. If you want to get rid of it all (which is a ridiculously stupid idea) then just say that, but what they're talking about is a relatively inexpensive public health measure in Pakistan, why is that bad? 000
Reposted by ConradCarla Denyer @carladenyer.bsky.social · 04/09/2026We need a government that will be upfront with the public, not parrot fossil fuel talking points. A Prime Minister who will protect our national security and long-term prosperity. He must say NO to more drilling in the North Sea.politicshome.comNorth Sea oil and gas is a test of leadership for Labour and they’re already failingThis summer we reached an inflection point. From now on, people living in the UK will only become more familiar with the real-world consequences of... 923583
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Hinson (R) leads by 5 points in the latest Emerson College poll for IA-SEN With Suffolk also being an R+5 for this, Iowa feels firmly in the Lean R column now But also clear split ticket voting with the governor's race IA-Gov Emerson: D+3 Suffolk: D+4 emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-po...emersoncollegepolling.comIowa 2026 Poll: Hinson Leads Turek for U.S. Senate, Sand Maintains Edge over Lahn for Governor - Emerson PollingVoters Concerned about Tariffs, Impact of Data Centers The September Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa…Full Release & Results 000
Conrad @conradaml.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Obviously the campaign hasn't even started yet really but I do worry about Labour running too much of an attack campaign against Zack Polanski in H&SP. They will have to do a bit of negative campaigning but some of the attacks in G&D got quite ridiculous imo. 120