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Dan Ciuriak

@ciuriakd.bsky.social
324 followers 13 following 84 posts

Usually found behind a computer, on a bike, or on the courts with a tennis racquet. If none of the above, check the local pub and stop by for a beer.

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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Hi Molly: Beat you to it some time ago - see my "High School-ification" blog post - danciuriak.substack.com/p/high-schoo.... But I share the sentiment.
danciuriak.substack.com
High School-ification
We’re not in a simulation – we’re in a teen high-school status drama
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This has to win the Internet today: "The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets"
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I don't believe I've ever used that word in writing and have only one downloaded Canadian document in my searchable files that used it. On that sample, the probability of "ornery" being used in Canadian discourse is vanishingly small. www.readtheline.ca/p/rob-breake....
readtheline.ca
Rob Breakenridge: Canada Post is a sinkhole. Why do we keep throwing money down it?
There was a time when mail delivery was an essential federal service. Like, 30 years ago.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
1. The Blob - www.facebook.com/horrorads/vi... - I was sure it was under my bed 2. "Birth of a Monster" - www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxXK... - the monster looked like the tree outside my bedroom window 3. Fear - because I read that the only thing to fear was fear itself and I was impressionable.
facebook.com
42K views · 1.9K reactions | The Blob - Trailer (1958) | Horror Ads
The Blob - Trailer (1958)
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
My Trade Secrets today. The El Niño of 1877-8 killed 50 million; the 1997-8 El Niño just 22,000. Floods and crop failure in Bangladesh in 1974 killed 1.5m; in 1997-8 almost none. As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.
as.ft.com
How free trade can shield us from El Niño
Climate shocks have progressively become less damaging over time
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Speaking of the market's price discovery, this is one of my favourite charts of all time, from a Bank of Canada Deputy Governor - www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/11/pric... - market price discovery implies law of one price holds - oops.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Imports are going to land on Kharg Island on Delivery Day?
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
"non-working royals"....nice non-work if you can get it.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Everything is in short supply - even space. Budget constraints on pricing result in rationing of available quantities. Perhaps the Strait of Hormuz has narrowed, with cascading consequences into type-setting?
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Charts from @adamtooze.bsky.social and @pkrugman.bsky.social show striking changes in a time frame that coincides with the "age of machine knowledge capital" in my "ages of capital" parsing of economic history (The Ages of Capital: A Primer - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....). How about that?
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The years that Krugman circles in his diagram are those I classify as the era of "machine knowledge capital" or MKC. The introduction of new forms of productive capital tends to transform everything - and Krugman's puzzle is corroborative for me. Discussion here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Economic Dimension of Power for a Small Open Economy in the Age of Machine Knowledge Capital
<p>This paper examines the evolving economic dimension of national power for a small open economy, focusing on Canada’s position in the transition to the age of
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
This also links to "precarity" - elimination of consumer surplus means one shock pushes a household into a precarious state. Which means households are living on the edge. Which has implications for consumer sentiment. See Krugman's puzzle: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/lies-damne...
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
One of the interesting connections is to the issue of affordability. Perfect price discrimination transfers consumer surplus (which makes things feel relatively cheap to consumers) to producers. Elimination of consumer surplus thus makes everything feel expensive - hence borderline "affordable".
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
More on surveillance pricing & price discrimination - www.theguardian.com/business/202.... "What thrives in the shadows of asymmetric information but not in the light of symmetric information has more to answer ... than textbook treatment to date has concluded." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
theguardian.com
JetBlue sued over claims it uses customers’ personal data to set ticket prices
Lawsuit follows exchange on X in which airline suggested customer should clear cache or book with incognito window
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
This exercise raises serious questions about whether the US is actually running a massive trade deficit as the populist trade economics maintains. Diego Marroquin of CSIS takes up this issue in "Reinforce, Don’t Reopen: Why Digital Trade Matters in the 2026 USMCA Review" www.csis.org/analysis/rei...
csis.org
Reinforce, Don’t Reopen: Why Digital Trade Matters in the 2026 USMCA Review
CSIS Americas Fellow Diego Marroquin Bitar analyzes the current North American digital trade framework ahead of the 2026 USMCA free trade agreement joint review.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
In my own work, I've done a similar exercise trying to put a value on the international data flows that US platforms have been hoovering up in a very imbalanced barter trade - beads for Manhattan all over again - based on equity market valuations of data-rich firms. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.....
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Hausmann and Velasco walk from equity market valuations of the leading US AI firms to implied US current account balances: How is the world to make the implied payments? It's a good questions! @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/GtWGqWj.
prosyn.org
The Real Question About the AI Future
Ricardo Hausmann & Andrés Velasco ask what kind of world economy would vindicate today's market valuations of a handful of US firms.
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Marathon talks? Compared to what? It took years for Obama to deliver a detailed Iran deal. The Trump admin are packing it in after 20 hours. (H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social)
series of headlines detailing "marathon talks"series of headlines detailing "marathon talks"series of headlines detailing "marathon talks"series of headlines detailing "marathon talks"
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 12/04/2026
Right, no, but apart from THAT...
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
True. "It was on a cold winter's night in 1983 ..." www.bbc.com/culture/arti.... Also: "At the time, Shergar had been settling into a new life at stud..." Dream job. Why does that not happen to me? Don't answer - it would not reflect well on either of us.
bbc.com
'There is a feeling of the greatest outrage': The mystery of stolen champion racehorse Shergar
Shergar was the world's most famous stallion. When armed men seized him from an Irish stud farm on 8 February 1983, the BBC reported on a sensational true crime saga.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
In my blogpost on the USMCA/CUSMA renegotiation (sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...) I note some disruptions caused by the war including helium for semiconductors. Who knew? Brian Potter walks us through it in his excellent Construction Physics www.construction-physics.com/p/helium-is-...
construction-physics.com
Helium Is Hard to Replace
The war in Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has unfortunately made us all familiar with details of the petroleum supply chain that we could formerly happily ignore.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
FAFO - climate change version: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/c...
nytimes.com
Heat Wipes Out Western Snowpack, Raising Fears of Drought, Wildfire
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Happy TACO Tuesday. As a light diversion, I offer some thoughts on the value proposition in play in the USMCA/CUSMA review - including the value of data - against the backdrop of a 2026 remake of Dog Day Afternoon, a film in which things go badly wrong. sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...
sagecanada.substack.com
Negotiating CUSMA on a Dog Day Afternoon
Dan Ciuriak is director and principal of Ciuriak Consulting and senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation where he writes on the digital economy.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
And you👍
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
What is Canada's exposure to a trade war and US tariffs? Smaller than advertised! www.cigionline.org/articles/sma...
cigionline.org
Smaller Than Advertised: Canada’s Real Trade Risk with the United States
Canada should attempt to negotiate a new trade deal, using its leverage and protecting its interests to achieve a fair, win-win outcome — a possibility that looms much larger following the U.S. Suprem...
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Perhaps Rodrigo Chaves Robles could undertake to accepted all the vulnerable young people incarcerated by ICE (www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...), especially pregnant girls. He would have a future "Schindler's List" movie about him.
pbs.org
Pregnant migrant girls held at Texas center criticized for inadequate care
Since July, the Trump administration has been sending all pregnant unaccompanied minors apprehended by immigration enforcement to a single group shelter in Texas. Some of the administration's own chil...
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Obviously cheaper to buy the chickens from the farmer than to bomb them - and going the commercial route would have increased the supply of eggs and poultry and reduced affordability problems in the United States even as it reduced the threat of chickens smuggling drugs or engaging in terrorism.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
New from me on a very timely topic of price discrimination (algorithmic, personalized pricing) in a digital economy context. www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/wh....
pymnts.com
When the Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good: Price Discrimination, Affordability, Precarity and Market Dynamism | PYMNTS.com
Price discrimination is facing growing consumer and regulatory backlash due to the emergence of “surveillance pricing,” which uses personal data to set
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Can we get the skinny on the thin? Asking for a friend
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
The anti-ICE movement before ICE
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
I look at the implications of measuring the contribution of data and governance systems to welfare in The Invisible Elements of GDP: How Much do They Matter in International Comparisons? - papers.ssrn.com/abstract=619.... I look at Canada-US comparisons - it would be interesting to look at US-EU.
papers.ssrn.com
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
New from me on a new Canadian commentary channel, substack.com/@sagecanada: Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies substack.com/@danciuriak/.... Canada has provided the world some life lessons in what not to do. Hope we have learned ourselves.
substack.com
Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies
Away from the performative noise, Canada-China trade policy is back where it started
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
This is a very timely summit. Disinformation impact is generated by market power in information space as I discuss in "The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=394...
papers.ssrn.com
The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space
It is a commonplace saying that we live in an age of disinformation, in a “post-truth” world, one of secrets and lies. And as revealed by periodic leaks by whis
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Is a course correction possible? Path dependence is a bitch, as 20/20 hindsight shows with regard to Caesar's famous line, "Alea iacta est" ("The die is cast"). The @nytimes.com article is in this sense disingenuity incarnate. See, e.g., the story on steel: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=588...
papers.ssrn.com
Impacts of a Tightened EU TRQ on Steel: Considerations regarding out-of-quota steel tariff levels and assessment of downstream price impacts
This note provides estimates of the impacts on steel prices and production volumes in the European Union of the proposed new measures on steel that respond to t
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
But not to be out-done by Obama, the Trump administration has pulled a gun on its erstwhile allies, something that cannot be unseen, in its so-called "National Security Strategy", not to mention the attack on US institutions. Contrast "America First" with Nixon:
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Obama's pivot unpinned Putin and opened the door for war in Europe; the move to contain China led to the obvious counter, which is the Belt and Road breakout strategy (China game is Go, which is all about containment). This led Beijing to Moscow and the rest is bloody history. /x
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
But as I argued then (as validated by events in the 2 years since), the West can't “contain” China or stop its tech advance - it had to reach out to China with a partnership, not a containership. It had to follow Nixon's pivot (1972 state visit to China), not Obama's disastrous "pivot to Asia". /x
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Here's the chart that compared the "West's" assets to China's. Collectively, the US, with its then-allies, held a dominant position in every significant metric, including manufacturing output, despite having a collectively smaller population than China. /x
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Almost 2 years ago, in an article for the substack.com/@nupeaceandw... (nupeaceandwarcenter.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...), I wrote out the analysis that that made the case for what this NYT editorial proposes www.nytimes.com/interactive/.... But the analysis pointed in a very different direction. /x
nytimes.com
Opinion | To Outbuild China, America Needs Friends
For the sake of global security and freedom, the world’s democracies must collaborate better.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
You might find this fun (and of interest): The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space - papers.ssrn.com/abstract=394....
papers.ssrn.com
The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space
It is a commonplace saying that we live in an age of disinformation, in a “post-truth” world, one of secrets and lies. And as revealed by periodic leaks by whis
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Too much vodka after being notified it was going to the front.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
As the Trump Administration continues it destructive assault on the foundations of US prosperity (in this case on the "brain gain" that fuels American innovation), it is fair to ask "Cui bono" - who benefits. My answer on the Trump I policies is aging nicely: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446....
papers.ssrn.com
Trade Politics Under the Influence: A Retrospective on the Trump Administration’s Trade Policy
The Trump Administration made a fundamental break with longstanding US trade policy. This break might be explained as expressing Trump’s affinity for traditiona
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Or, as Yogi Berra reportedly said about a St. Louis restaurant: "No one goes there anymore. It's too crowded".
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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 21/06/2025
"The world's richest man logs onto the platform he bought to yell at the AI he had built for fact-checking conservative mega-influencer Catturd2" is a sentence so stupid that future history books may just skip this decade.
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
CITP @thecitp.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Super interesting paper by @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social advocating for the establishment of a Caucus of small, open economies as a new, informal group to facilitate a collective response within the @wto.org. A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
https://lsen.bsky.social‬
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Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
I'm not a fan of the yah-boo British parliamentary culture at all, but I do feel that when someone lands an absolute zinger of a question like this and literally brings receipts, there should at least be a chant of "NICE ONE MAGGIE" from the public gallery or an airhorn or something.
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Harlan G. Cohen @harlangcohen.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Intriguing proposals for collective action at the WTO, drawing on GATT history to confront the current moment. From the always insightful @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Nope. See: "Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=504.... It's about income distribution and the changes wrought by technological change.
papers.ssrn.com
Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism
The 2016 election of Donald J. Trump marked a profound shift in U.S. trade policy, building on populist critiques of globalization and structural trade imbalanc
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Cass is off-base in his critique of comparative advantage and Noah Smith is off-base in saying Cass makes a "useful substantive point" on this. See Misunderstanding America: A Journey Through Trade Economics with a Broken Compass papers.ssrn.com/abstract=509.... www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-anti-e...
noahpinion.blog
The anti-economists have overreached
Before you criticize something, at least try to understand it.
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Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
A "mis-step"? Is it any different if racism and institutional viciousness results in deportation of a man who worked namelessly on building a railroad or someone who would go on to build technology for your adversary, making him your adversary in the process? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History
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