Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 19/09/2026This has to win the Internet today: "The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets" 000
Reposted by Dan CiuriakAlan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 03/09/2026My Trade Secrets today. The El Niño of 1877-8 killed 50 million; the 1997-8 El Niño just 22,000. Floods and crop failure in Bangladesh in 1974 killed 1.5m; in 1997-8 almost none. As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.as.ft.comHow free trade can shield us from El NiñoClimate shocks have progressively become less damaging over time 4408
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026"non-working royals"....nice non-work if you can get it. 000
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 23/05/2026Charts from @adamtooze.bsky.social and @pkrugman.bsky.social show striking changes in a time frame that coincides with the "age of machine knowledge capital" in my "ages of capital" parsing of economic history (The Ages of Capital: A Primer - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....). How about that? 000
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 24/04/2026More on surveillance pricing & price discrimination - www.theguardian.com/business/202.... "What thrives in the shadows of asymmetric information but not in the light of symmetric information has more to answer ... than textbook treatment to date has concluded." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....theguardian.comJetBlue sued over claims it uses customers’ personal data to set ticket pricesLawsuit follows exchange on X in which airline suggested customer should clear cache or book with incognito window 120
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/04/2026Hausmann and Velasco walk from equity market valuations of the leading US AI firms to implied US current account balances: How is the world to make the implied payments? It's a good questions! @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/GtWGqWj.prosyn.orgThe Real Question About the AI FutureRicardo Hausmann & Andrés Velasco ask what kind of world economy would vindicate today's market valuations of a handful of US firms. 120
Reposted by Dan CiuriakDon Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Marathon talks? Compared to what? It took years for Obama to deliver a detailed Iran deal. The Trump admin are packing it in after 20 hours. (H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social) 1402554665
Reposted by Dan CiuriakKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 12/04/2026Right, no, but apart from THAT... 610531
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 09/04/2026In my blogpost on the USMCA/CUSMA renegotiation (sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...) I note some disruptions caused by the war including helium for semiconductors. Who knew? Brian Potter walks us through it in his excellent Construction Physics www.construction-physics.com/p/helium-is-...construction-physics.comHelium Is Hard to ReplaceThe war in Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has unfortunately made us all familiar with details of the petroleum supply chain that we could formerly happily ignore. 000
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 08/04/2026FAFO - climate change version: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/c...nytimes.comHeat Wipes Out Western Snowpack, Raising Fears of Drought, Wildfire 010
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 08/04/2026Happy TACO Tuesday. As a light diversion, I offer some thoughts on the value proposition in play in the USMCA/CUSMA review - including the value of data - against the backdrop of a 2026 remake of Dog Day Afternoon, a film in which things go badly wrong. sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...sagecanada.substack.comNegotiating CUSMA on a Dog Day AfternoonDan Ciuriak is director and principal of Ciuriak Consulting and senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation where he writes on the digital economy. 000
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 26/03/2026What is Canada's exposure to a trade war and US tariffs? Smaller than advertised! www.cigionline.org/articles/sma...cigionline.orgSmaller Than Advertised: Canada’s Real Trade Risk with the United StatesCanada should attempt to negotiate a new trade deal, using its leverage and protecting its interests to achieve a fair, win-win outcome — a possibility that looms much larger following the U.S. Suprem... 184
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 19/03/2026New from me on a very timely topic of price discrimination (algorithmic, personalized pricing) in a digital economy context. www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/wh....pymnts.comWhen the Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good: Price Discrimination, Affordability, Precarity and Market Dynamism | PYMNTS.comPrice discrimination is facing growing consumer and regulatory backlash due to the emergence of “surveillance pricing,” which uses personal data to set 000
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 29/01/2026New from me on a new Canadian commentary channel, substack.com/@sagecanada: Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies substack.com/@danciuriak/.... Canada has provided the world some life lessons in what not to do. Hope we have learned ourselves.substack.comDon’t Be Stupid When Trading with FrenemiesAway from the performative noise, Canada-China trade policy is back where it started 010
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 25/01/2026This is a very timely summit. Disinformation impact is generated by market power in information space as I discuss in "The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=394...papers.ssrn.comThe Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information SpaceIt is a commonplace saying that we live in an age of disinformation, in a “post-truth” world, one of secrets and lies. And as revealed by periodic leaks by whis 010
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/12/2025Almost 2 years ago, in an article for the substack.com/@nupeaceandw... (nupeaceandwarcenter.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...), I wrote out the analysis that that made the case for what this NYT editorial proposes www.nytimes.com/interactive/.... But the analysis pointed in a very different direction. /xnytimes.comOpinion | To Outbuild China, America Needs FriendsFor the sake of global security and freedom, the world’s democracies must collaborate better. 110
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 13/11/2025Too much vodka after being notified it was going to the front. 011
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 21/09/2025As the Trump Administration continues it destructive assault on the foundations of US prosperity (in this case on the "brain gain" that fuels American innovation), it is fair to ask "Cui bono" - who benefits. My answer on the Trump I policies is aging nicely: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446....papers.ssrn.comTrade Politics Under the Influence: A Retrospective on the Trump Administration’s Trade PolicyThe Trump Administration made a fundamental break with longstanding US trade policy. This break might be explained as expressing Trump’s affinity for traditiona 000
Reposted by Dan CiuriakDmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 21/06/2025"The world's richest man logs onto the platform he bought to yell at the AI he had built for fact-checking conservative mega-influencer Catturd2" is a sentence so stupid that future history books may just skip this decade. 8531146
Reposted by Dan CiuriakCITP @thecitp.bsky.social · 16/06/2025Super interesting paper by @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social advocating for the establishment of a Caucus of small, open economies as a new, informal group to facilitate a collective response within the @wto.org. A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....https://lsen.bsky.social 032
Reposted by Dan CiuriakAlan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 14/06/2025I'm not a fan of the yah-boo British parliamentary culture at all, but I do feel that when someone lands an absolute zinger of a question like this and literally brings receipts, there should at least be a chant of "NICE ONE MAGGIE" from the public gallery or an airhorn or something. 29717
Reposted by Dan CiuriakHarlan G. Cohen @harlangcohen.bsky.social · 09/06/2025Intriguing proposals for collective action at the WTO, drawing on GATT history to confront the current moment. From the always insightful @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social 021
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Nope. See: "Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=504.... It's about income distribution and the changes wrought by technological change.papers.ssrn.comPopulist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of PopulismThe 2016 election of Donald J. Trump marked a profound shift in U.S. trade policy, building on populist critiques of globalization and structural trade imbalanc 010
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 31/05/2025Cass is off-base in his critique of comparative advantage and Noah Smith is off-base in saying Cass makes a "useful substantive point" on this. See Misunderstanding America: A Journey Through Trade Economics with a Broken Compass papers.ssrn.com/abstract=509.... www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-anti-e...noahpinion.blogThe anti-economists have overreachedBefore you criticize something, at least try to understand it. 020
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 30/05/2025A "mis-step"? Is it any different if racism and institutional viciousness results in deportation of a man who worked namelessly on building a railroad or someone who would go on to build technology for your adversary, making him your adversary in the process? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/o...nytimes.comOpinion | The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History 010
Reposted by Dan CiuriakAlan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 22/05/2025As @ciuriakd.bsky.social says, just set one up across the border in Nova Scotia. Authentic weather, authentic accents. 293
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 22/05/2025I'm sure Canada would welcome Harvard to establish a campus a short ferry ride away from Cambridge Mass. in Nova Scotia - Harvard North in the True North, Strong and above all Free. 031
Reposted by Dan CiuriakAlan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 16/05/2025First Trump fell out with Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen and now he’s got the Moody’s Blues. #coat 920932
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 12/04/2025In my contribution, I show how the reciprocal trade formula works when you put it into a standard trade model. But first, let's identify the countries that rip-off the US - and the countries that the US rips off. I show the same chart for Sweden. In trade, everybody is ripping everyone off! 230
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 30/03/2025As we approach tariff shock week, it is useful for Canadians to recall that we've been there before - many times actually. policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/ju... - each response to trade shocks involved trade liberalization! That's one reason why Canada is still standing, bruised but not bowed.policyoptions.irpp.orgCanada’s multi-faceted trade diversification challengeWe’ve dealt with historic trade shocks, but the perfect storm we face requires a hard look at 4Gs: gravity, geopolitics, geoeconomics and governance. 010
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 25/02/2025The 24th of February was always going to have its portrait go up on the Wall of Infamy. Now it gets to have it twice with the US siding with Russia in a UN vote on the 3rd anniversary of Putin's 3-day SMO. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/w.... Feckless thy name is United States.nytimes.comU.S. Votes Against U.N. Resolution Demanding Russian Withdrawal from UkraineThe United States opposed a resolution demanding Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, but won Security Council approval of one calling for peace without assigning blame, exposing fissures between allies. 000
Reposted by Dan CiuriakMark Cuban @mcuban.bsky.social · 09/02/2025This is the most relevant article to NIH and research cuts I’ve seen. Imagine if this was today , how many people would be saying “Why are we studying Gila Monsters and their impact on diabetes ? That’s wasted money !” globalnews.ca/news/9793403...globalnews.caHow a Canadian scientist and a venomous lizard helped pave the way for Ozempic - National | Globalnews.caIn 1984, Dr. Daniel Drucker, an endocrinologist from the University of Toronto, discovered a hormone that helped pave the way for popular diabetes drugs such as Ozempic. 11264857812421
Reposted by Dan CiuriakPeter Ungphakorn @coppetainpu.bsky.social · 06/02/2025“If Canada were to follow suit and blame foreigners for our mistakes, Canada would have a legitimate case to impose massive tariffs on US exports in response to our opioid crisis. But our crisis is our fault, just as the US is theirs.” By @ciuriakd.bsky.social www.asiapacific.ca/publication/...asiapacific.caA Faulty Case: Deconstructing Trump’s Call for a Trade War on CanadaThe claims of a “crisis” on the Canada-U.S. border related to flows of fentanyl and illegal immigration, on which Trump's tariffs are based, are specious. 0113
Reposted by Dan CiuriakStu Duncan @studuncan.bsky.social · 03/02/2025Actual journalism: www.wired.com/story/elon-m...wired.comThe Young, Inexperienced Engineers Aiding Elon Musk’s Government TakeoverEngineers between 19 and 24, most linked to Musk’s companies, are playing a key role as he seizes control of federal infrastructure. 084
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 30/01/2025New from me: "The Consequences of the America First Trade Policy: What We Learn from the 1971 Nixon Measures" - papers.ssrn.com/abstract=511.... Here's the skinny.../xpapers.ssrn.comThe Consequences of the America First Trade Policy: What We Learn from the 1971 Nixon MeasuresThe "America First Trade Policy announced by US President Donald Trump has galvanized debates about the emerging populist trade economics and the broader c 144
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 07/10/2023On 26 April 1937, when Guernica was crowded on market day, Hitler bombed, a defining act of terror. On 5 October 2023, when the locals in Hroza, a village of 110 was gathered for a wake, Putin sent a missile, killing half the population, an act of terror. History's horrors echo. 120
Dan Ciuriak @ciuriakd.bsky.social · 06/10/2023As I look out my window there is blue sky. Time to start here. So, new from Anna Artyushina (socioanna.bsky) and me www.cigionline.org/articles/can.... The age of machine knowledge capital is the new Big Bang. The nerdy backgrounder: Trading AI papers.ssrn.com/abstract=450...cigionline.orgCanada Needs an Artificial Intelligence AgencyThe new agency will need to be staffed with the country’s best and brightest. Work on this should begin now. 030