Reposted by Casey Cox
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Who’s next?
Here is Dr. Peterson’s letter of resignation, which he just shared with the faculty.
Casey Cox
@ccrismancox.bsky.social
200 followers 178 following 115 posts
Political science professor. Nerd. All opinions are my own
![chatgpt log:
What would be an easy way to calculate the tariffs that should be imposed on other countries so that the US is on even-playing fields when it comes to trade deficit? Set minimum at 10%.
Reasoned about trade tariffs and deficits for 10 seconds v
A straightforward (if naïve) method is to set the tariff rate for each trading partner equal to the percentage share of the trade deficit relative to that country's total imports-always no less than 10%. In formula form:
Tariff Rate (%) = max(10, (Trade Deficit ÷ Total Imports) *
100)
For example, if the US runs a $20 billion deficit on $100 billion worth of imports from a country, the calculated rate is (20/100)×100 = 20%. If the deficit were only 5%, you'd still impose a 10% floor.
This method ignores the intricate dynamics of international trade-such as elasticities, retaliatory measures, and supply chain nuances-but it provides a blunt, proportional rule to "level the playing field." One might implement it in Python like so:
[code]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreigbalqxjorllnpelbwe5kcla5fdedxvgv3cicxdsrbdxarodif5ba)
![Grok:
the deficit. The deficit as a percentage of total trade is
$295B/$582B = 50.69%. Using the formula Tariff% = 10% +
(Deficit% × Scaling Factor), we choose a scaling factor of 50 for illustration:
• Tariff = 10% + (50.69% × 50) = 10% + 25.345% = 35.345%, rounded to 35.3%.
This means a 35.3% tariff on Chinese goods could be proposed to offset the imbalance, aiming to reduce imports and encourage domestic production or exports.
Extending to Other Countries
To provide a broader view, here's a table of top US trading partners with 2024 deficits, using data from The Motley Fool and similar calculations (assuming scaling factor of 50 for consistency):
[data table headings]
Country
Deficit
(USD
Billion)
Total
Trade
(USD
Billion)
Deficit %
Calculate d Tariff %
China
-295
582
50.69%
35.3%
Mexico
-172
840
20.48%
20.2%
Vietnam
-123
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~30%
25.0%
Ireland
-87
(Data incomplet e, estimate)
~25%
22.5%
Germany
-85
(Data incomplete estimate)
~20%
20.0%](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:iyz5zf463ic52vqbonyu2ebu/bafkreietqlxsi5akdrvtp2rwqpc6kt6g6bbb2dppqcfn2j4q7xkofn4f4y)
