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Mike Gibilisco

@mgibilisco.bsky.social
609 followers 437 following 185 posts

Professor and political scientist at Caltech researching and teaching about conflict, political institutions, and connections between models and data. michaelgibilisco.com

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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Decided to fight a windmill today and see if @caltech.edu HR can fix the typos in the official EOE claims in job descriptions.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Come to LA they said; we don’t have humidity mosquitoes they said.
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Mr. Blabalino 🇳🇴🇺🇸💙 @blabalino.com · 20/09/2026
This is an actual public service ad created by the Norwegian government regarding this problem. If you think the Internet sucks now, you're not alone.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Besides the measles, it is a great airport.
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Linde Center for Science, Society, & Policy at Caltech @caltechlcssp.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
New research from @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social, @caltech.edu: Securing the Vote Against Autonomous AI Read & subscribe: electionscience.substack.com/p/securing-t...
electionscience.substack.com
Securing the Vote Against Autonomous AI
As Anthropic's Project Glasswing identifies thousands of vulnerabilities, election officials must race to patch the gap before November
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Come work with us! And please tell your students to come work with us! #polisky #econsky
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Didn’t the Simpsons already do this?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
After working through second and third derivatives, I am ready to abandon Bayes learning for something with an easier functional form.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Cue the john williams's jurassic park theme song
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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
Currently in FirstView: In “Measuring the Quality of Answers in Political Q&As with Large Language Models,” @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social and Jacob Morrier develop an approach for measuring the quality of answers in Q&A sessions using data from the Question Period in the Canadian House of Commons.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
These always strike me as strong associations and I’ve always wondered how these observed rates vary by field. Eg: effect of family background of becoming an MD/physician or JD/lawyer?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
If we write papers using LLM generated data, and those papers are then used to create another version of LLMs and then new datasets for new papers, will the process converge? If not, will it be stationary?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
There are social scientists at #Caltech, @caltech.edu! I think they do pretty good research...at least some of the time. www.caltech.edu/about/news/m...
caltech.edu
Modeling Violent Terrorism as a Tug of War Between Competing Groups
Mike Gibilisco, professor of political science, and his co-author seek an understanding of how competing terrorist groups react to one another's violent attacks.
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Colin Camerer @cfcamerer.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
This is close to stenography: “An unnamed source told me all these things [many clearly false] so am repeating them to you” How is this different than publishing a press release?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Next question: does monterey pdf word count pick this up? I dont know if I can sacrifice 1 of my 5 implications for this.
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Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
What remains of USAID? Practically nothing ("a shell") and millions will die because of Trump and Musk
nytimes.com
What Remains of U.S.A.I.D. After DOGE’s Budget Cuts? (Gift Article)
The few hundred programs that survived DOGE’s purge reveal the future of foreign aid.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Stand aside \bot here comes \swordcontradict
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Emily Kracht @emikracht.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
Social, Behavioral, & Economic Sciences is getting hit with a 67.6% cut, worse than other programs within NSF. Funding for archaeologists comes from the division for Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences, which is facing a 77.3% cut. It appears every post doc program has been 100% cut.
Screenshot of NSF budget cuts to various programs
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Farouk "Peter" Beardsley @sodiumboat.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
I am looking at NSF's budget request, in awe at the disinvestment in learning anything. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/00-NSF...
nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov
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Dr. Jessie Christiansen @aussiastronomer.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
TO BE PERFECTLY CLEAR, THE PROPOSED NSF BUDGET CUTS NEARLY A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE FROM NSF ACTIVITIES. FOR INSTANCE, JOBS.
A screenshot of the number of people involved in NSF activities being reduced from 330,100 to 90,000.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
@caltech.edu and I both agree that international relations needs more theoretical models and fitting those models to data.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Even after 8 years, I don’t fully understand caltech’s skip day, but this is the first year with an inflatable dragon outside my office.
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Dave Siegel @daveasiegel.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Happy to see that this is now out. The R package associated with the project, IRTM, can now be found on CRAN. Or can you still download it from my github. We'll continue to update it over time. This is a brief thread about what IRTM can do. 🧵 (1/7)
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
This is a neat paper that illustrates the benefits of combining theory with new data. You will find this interesting!
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
I am never excited for 9am meeting, but today is dissertation defense day!
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
The coconut milk is bad!
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
First day of class for the spring quarter
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chelsea g. summers @chelseagsummers.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
This is just to say I have texted the war plans that were in the Defense Department and which you were probably saving for people with a security clearance Forgive me they were delicious so sweet and so cold
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Brad Smith @bradsmithunc.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
This is a fantastic paper. If you ever wondered “why would I want to use a structural approach?” this paper is a shining example.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Incredibly excited to see this paper with @ccrismancox.bsky.social at @iojournal.bsky.social. We study outbidding using new models, methods, and data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. #polisky
cambridge.org
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Tug of War: The Heterogeneous Effects of Outbidding Between Terrorist Groups - Volume 79 Issue 1
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Rediscovering my love of integration by parts.
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Eli Perencevich @eliowa.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Just got the dreaded email. University of Iowa is halting all NIH grant submissions. Losing a generation of scientists here will send the state backwards. What a travesty.
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Dave Vanness @djvanness.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Penn State also pausing new NIH submissions and pausing acceptance of new awards. #academicsky
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ArtButMakeItSports @artbutmakeitsports.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
At the Deathbed, by Edvard Munch, 1895
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DrLostCauses @acpacek.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
As a UIUC grad I’m very familiar with this. This is beyond devastating. I joked about Lysenkoism taking root here awhile back but it’s not funny anymore. Science that feeds people is now under very grave threat.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
We played OuiSi in my writing seminar to practice justifying creative choices and then providing feedback on the choices. This is our creation.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
I might not survive this conference
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Is mdpi trolling me?
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
PSA to job market candidates: if you didn't get a particular flyout, it may have had nothing to do with the quality of your interview. Departments have a myriad of internal constraints and goals that are unobservable to you, and the process is a lot more complex than you think.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
The Ira Glass "taste gap" quote made it on my writing syllabus this semester, but I cannot remember what podcast I first heard it on. Was it This American Life?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
This holiday season I’m thankful for coauthors who understand I couldn’t meet this afternoon because I had to start the dry brine this evening.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
People seem to think that ABMs have been limited because they’re too simple, motivating llms, but the real problem is they’re often too complex. More often than not if you dig a little their dynamics are driven by some leading order choice in behavior or parameters.
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 13/10/2024
Proof: intermediate value theorem
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
Caltech is hiring this year in economics! Please share with your students and anyone who may be interested. #EconSky Target Fields: applied micro, finance, and behavioral/experimental applications.caltech.edu/jobs/econ
applications.caltech.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics | Caltech Applications
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Zsuzsanna Chappell @zsuzsannachappell.bsky.social · 26/09/2024
#academicsky
Man standing on left: "netflix and chill?"
Woman sitting on the right: "nah, PDF and cry"
by art is where I belong
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Ken Opalo @kopalo.bsky.social · 26/09/2024
We are hiring an IR scholar who works on Africa! apply.interfolio.com/155789
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 17/09/2024
Overleaf can fail to compile a document without a bug. Sometimes refreshing makes the problem go away, but doing so means I lose the ability to "undo and redo" recent changes which are helpful to debugging code. So I have to judge: are my latex mistakes more frequent than overleaf getting stuck?
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Mike Gibilisco @mgibilisco.bsky.social · 17/09/2024
below the conventional threshold of 0.05
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