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Casey Breen

@caseybreen.bsky.social
1.9K followers 101 following 54 posts

Demographer. Assistant Professor @ UT-Austin. caseybreen.com

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Luca Maria Pesando @lucampesando.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
📢 Job: I am hiring *TWO* 3-year Postdocs to join us at #NYUAD to work on household demography in Africa and school segregation in the Global South. More information below. Great research and family benefits. Deadline: Jan 15, 2027. To apply: apply.interfolio.com/193571 apply.interfolio.com/193489
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Jeffrey Swindle @jeffreyswindle.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
My department at UC Irvine is hiring at the Associate/Full Professor level. Our department is called Criminology, Law & Society, and we have faculty from every social science field (soc, anthro, econ, poli sci). So, our search is broad. (1/3) recruit.ap.uci.edu/JPF10413
recruit.ap.uci.edu
Associate Professor/ Full Professor
University of California, Irvine is hiring. Apply now!
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We're hosting our 2nd annual CenSoc Users Conference on December 4th, remotely. Please consider joining us! docs.google.com/document/d/1...
docs.google.com
CenSoc Users Conference 2026
2026 CenSoc Users Conference Hosted by the CenSoc Project Organizer: Casey Breen We invite submissions for our second annual CenSoc Users Conference. The conference will be held remotely on Decem...
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
How well can we predict which children will end up poor adults or rich adults? Or how much education they'll earn? In a new working paper, @zparolin.bsky.social and I show the predictability of life outcomes depends on the country and outcome. www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications... Highlights below! 🧵👇
Title: Rags or Riches? Predicting Life Outcomes from the Birth Lottery Across Five High-Income Countries

Authors: Orestes P. Hastings and Zach Parolin

Abstract: The stratification of life outcomes is a central concern of sociology, but to what extent can adult outcomes be predicted from childhood circumstances? Although decades of research have identified important family and socioeconomic factors associated with mobility and attainment, these models explain only a modest share of individual variation in outcomes. Using harmonized longitudinal data from the Cross-National Equivalent Files (CNEF) and an ensemble of machine-learning models, we estimate the predictability of adult outcomes in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and South Korea. Predictability varies substantially across outcomes and national contexts: educational attainment is more predictable than economic outcomes, poverty is far more predictable in the U.S., and income mobility is substantially less predictable than overall attainment outcomes. Additional U.S. analyses show that adding race, wealth, parental incarceration, and other variables improves predictions only slightly. We further show that predictability captures a distinct dimension of stratification not fully captured in other traditional measures of mobility, inequality, and opportunity. Together, these findings provide new insights into where and how the birth lottery most strongly shapes life chances.
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Mark Hayward @mdhayward.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Mateo Farina and I are excited to share a Perspective recently published in Milbank Quarterly. We argue that the "race between education and technology" plays an especially important role in the growing educational divide in US mortality. 🧪 @Milbank Memorial Fund www.milbank.org/quarterly/ar...
milbank.org
Public Policies in Historical Context and the Association Between Education and US Older Adults’ Health | Milbank Quarterly
In this perspective, we have reviewed the historical evidence on the association between education and health in the United States, arguing that attention to public policies related to both education ...
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Congrats!!!
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Matt Hall @fertmortmig.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
📣📣📣Cornell Population Center is hiring for its next Rhodes Postdoctoral Fellow The fellowship is competitive and provides ample time for pursuing independent and collaborative research. Welcome applications from all scholars interested in population research. Please share widely!
academicjobsonline.org
Cornell University, Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy
Job #AJO32452, WDR-00060532 Frank H.T. Rhodes Postdoctoral Fellowship, Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, US
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Frank Edwards @frankalready.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
new paper: we update risk estimates for child welfare system outcomes (investigation, confirmed, foster care, termination of rights) by race/ethnicity using 2016-2023 data. Black and AIAN kids still most likely to have system contact, but rates are down across the board compared to mid 2010s
A two panel plot showing estimates of lifetime risks of investigation and confirmed maltreatment for seven racial and ethnic groups. There is a slight downward trend over timeA two panel plot showing risk estimates for foster care and termination of parental rights. Foster care rates have a noticeable downward slope. Termination rates have a smaller negative change over time.
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IUSSP @iussp.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
N-IUSSP: Can we really predict individual-level longevity? by Casey F. Breen and Nathan Seltzer www.niussp.org/health-and-m... #demography #populationstudies
niussp.org
Can we really predict individual-level longevity? - N-IUSSP
Disparities in life expectancy across sociodemographic groups are large in the U.S. Still, using linked Census and mortality records for men born in 1910, Casey Breen and Nathan Seltzer find ... Read ...
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Mathew Kiang @mathewkiang.com · 24/06/2026
Looking for a postdoc? Interested in infectious disease modeling? Love causal inference? Want to work with @mlipsitch.bsky.social? Come do a postdoc with us at Stanford! postdocs.stanford.edu/prospective/...
postdocs.stanford.edu
Open Postdoctoral position, faculty mentor Marc Lipsitch | Office of Postdoctoral Affairs
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Nico Pinchak @pinchak.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
New in @sfjournal.bsky.social, just in time for summer reading 📚☀️ Cohesive schools are widely thought to curb youth offending, but the evidence is quite mixed. I find that popular boys in such schools may experience more leeway to offend—what I call a "code of cohesion." doi.org/10.1093/sf/s...
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
I’m late, but want to Blue Sky celebrate the amazing @ridhikashyap.bsky.social & her Early Career Award from the @popassocamerica.bsky.social!! 🎉🏆👏🙌. Sometimes good things *do* happen to good people :). #demography @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social
Ridhi Kashyap holding award plaque and Jenn Dowd holding champagne
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
New in PDR! Happy to see this one out. Structured Inequality, Uncertain Lifespans: Demographic Perspectives on Predicting Individual-Level Longevity onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Population and Development Review</em> | Population Council Journal | Wiley Online Library
There are striking disparities in life expectancy across sociodemographic groups in the United States, shaped by structural forces such as racism, class inequality, and policy environments. To what e...
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Looking forward to talking tomorrow at UPenn and sharing some new work I’m really excited about! www.pop.upenn.edu/events/2026/...
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Zack Almquist @zalmquist.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
New paper with @ihsankahveci.bsky.social, Amy Hagopian and others at Social Networks - www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... check it out!
sciencedirect.com
Understanding the personal networks of people experiencing homelessness in King County, WA with aggregate relational data
Personal networks among people experiencing homelessness are vital but often overlooked. Drawing on a unique three-year data set (2022–2024) from over…
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BK Lee @letitbk.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Happy to share our new paper published in PNAS! Using epigenetic clocks and egocentric network data, we find each additional "hassler" in your close social network is associated with ~9 months of extra biological age and 1.5% faster pace of aging.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Academia teaches you critical thinking, mostly about your own life choices
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Highly recommend blocking off some time today to read this fantastic paper!
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Ramina Sotoudeh @ramina-sotoudeh.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Our paper with Ginevra Floridi out in Sociological Science now! We use sequence analysis, LCA & survival models to map how parental financial and co-residential support unfolds across young adulthood. We find 3 distinct pathways & a gendered relationship between marriage and independence. 🏡🧑‍🧑‍🧒‍🧒💸
sociologicalscience.com
Pathways to Independence: The Dynamics of Parental Support in the Transition to Adulthood
Article: Pathways to Independence: The Dynamics of Parental Support in the Transition to Adulthood | Sociological Science | Posted November 25, 2025
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Stéphane Helleringer @shelleringer.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
I’m recruiting a postdoctoral associate at NYU Abu Dhabi. Position is for 3 years with excellent salary, housing and benefits. Please share widely. For more information and application, link ⬇️ apply.interfolio.com/177935
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Favorite books on *undergraduate* teaching?
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
This method would benefit from more application, validation, and refinement in real humanitarian settings ... Special thanks to fantastic collaborators from NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social for supporting methods development in this space!
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
This design could be deployed remotely in settings where operational constraints prevent humanitarian groups from reaching insecure areas, meaning it could potentially be applied to estimate death rates in a wide range of humanitarian emergencies.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
This new method can be used to monitor trends in crude death rates over time.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
However, the household estimate from the *probability* sample was much higher than other estimates, which may reflect strategic over-reporting (high levels of NGO operations in the area have been hypothesized to create incentives to overreport deaths).
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
From the quota sample, our estimates based on different types of respondent reports (i.e., reports on neighbors, kin, and household) produce similar and plausible crude death rate estimates. As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
To account for selection into our quota sample, we constructed survey weights under several scenarios reflecting different hypothetical levels of auxiliary data availability for weighting targets.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
An advantage of the network approach is that each interview provides mortality information on many more people than a typical mortality survey that asks respondents only about their household or siblings.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Qualitative fieldwork suggested testing two different types of personal networks as the basis for estimates: deaths among immediate neighbors and deaths among kin.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We did several weeks of in-person fieldwork (cognitive interviews, focus groups, etc.) to better understand the types of social networks people could report accurately on in this setting.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
— Quota sample: sampled respondents from 3 health zones at major transit hubs (e.g., markets, taxi stops, ports, health clinics, and footpaths) who were coming into Kalemie City (N = 2,526) — Probability sample: sampled respondents probabilistically across 3 health zones in their HH (N = 2,785)
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We collected original data in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, a realistic setting where such emergencies have happened in the past. Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
We adapt the network survival method to the unique setting of humanitarian emergencies. The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Reliable estimates of death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies are critical for assessing the severity of a crisis and for allocating resources. However, in many humanitarian settings, logistical and security concerns make conventional methods for estimating death rates infeasible.
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Our new paper develops and tests a network-based method for estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies. Joint w/ @dennisfeehan.bsky.social and team from Geneva-based NGO @impact-initiatives.bsky.social academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Estimating death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies using the network survival method
Abstract. Reliable estimates of death rates in complex humanitarian emergencies are critical for assessing the severity of a crisis and for effectively all
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Valerie Mueller @valmuellerasu.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Our new pub finds flooding impacts on fertility differ in Bangladesh: “We detect…flood-related increases in childbearing among less-educated and higher parity women but find flood-related fertility declines among childless women and those in urban areas.”
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dldmagnuson.bsky.social @dldmagnuson.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Pleased to be part of the history making "IPUMS USA Full Count Census Data" special issue in Historical Methods 58(4). @ipums.bsky.social @stevenruggles.bsky.social @mattanelson.bsky.social @juliariveradrew.bsky.social @evanrobertsnz.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/toc/vhim20/5...
tandfonline.com
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History
IPUMS USA Full Count Census Data Collection. Volume 58, Issue 4 of Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History
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Trish Homan @pahoman.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
New publication with @susanshort.bsky.social in @lancetrh-americ.bsky.social. We analyzed 2025 revisions to womenshealth[dot]gov under the Trump administration -documenting how credible health content was replaced with ideology: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Rewriting women's health: a content analysis of the Trump administration's revisions to womenshealth.gov
In 2025, the Trump administration instituted rapid changes to the data and information available on US government websites. We conducted a content ana…
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Elaine Hernandez @emhernandez.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Oh hey, little update. Indiana University Department of Sociology is hiring this fall. Keeping you on your toes deadline is 11/16. We’re looking for an assistant professor specializing in sociology of medicine, health, and/or well-being broadly defined. indiana.peopleadmin.com/postings/30984
	IU Bloomington Sociology
Location	Bloomington
Position Summary	
The Department of Sociology (https://sociology.indiana.edu/index.html) at Indiana University, Bloomington, invites applications for a tenure-track position at the level of Assistant Professor to begin in the fall of 2026 in the general area of sociology of medicine, health, and/or well-being broadly defined. We encourage applicants whose research in medicine, health, and/or well-being would complement department strengths in the areas of education, social psychology, political sociology, sociology of the family, sociology of inequality, stratification, and population.
 
The tenure home for this position will be in the Department of Sociology. Ph.D. in Sociology is required at time of appointment. Applicants should apply online at https://indiana.peopleadmin.com/postings/30984 including a cover letter; CV; statements on research and/or teaching; up to three writing samples; and contact information for three letters of reference. Applications must be complete by November 16, 2025, to receive full consideration. Applications will be considered until the position is filled. Queries can be sent to Fabio Rojas (frojas@iu.edu), Department of Sociology Chair, or Jennifer Barber (jenbarb@iu.edu), Chair of the Search Committee.  
 
Indiana University is an equal opportunity employer and provider of ADA services and prohibits discrimination in hiring. See Indiana University Notice of Non-Discrimination here which includes contact information.
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Sociology at Oxford @sociologyoxford.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Women are 19% less likely to use the internet and 8% less likely to own a mobile phone than men. That’s 320 million fewer women online and 190 million fewer with phones globally 🌍
Quote from Ridhi Kashyap: "This paper underscores the importance of sub-national data for a more complete understanding of inequality in digital adoption, especially in countries with the lowest overall levels of human development.

Our estimates provide a valuable lens for researchers and policymakers through which to assess areas that stand to benefit from the increasing rollout of digital programmes within global development policies, as well as those at risk of being left behind."
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Amazing postdoc opportunity!
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Adrian Raftery @adrianraftery.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Our article “Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth” www.nature.com/articles/s43..., w Jitong Jiang & Skylar Shi just published. See also the @uwnews.uw.edu release www.washington.edu/news/2025/10...
nature.com
Mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and meet the Paris Agreement have been offset by economic growth - Communications Earth & Environment
Global carbon dioxide intensity declined from 2015 to 2024 following the Paris Agreement, but total emissions still increased due to economic growth, according to a global analysis of population, gros...
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Jasmin Abdel Ghany @jasminabdelghany.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
Heart full of joy and gratitude for my depicted, literal superhero team 🦸🦸🦸🦸🦸🦸of incredible supervisors Josh Wilde, @ridhikashyap.bsky.social, @melindacmills.bsky.social, and excellent examiners @drjenndowd.bsky.social & @ftorche.bsky.social, as well as my terrific mentors, peers, & friends!!!
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
@oxforddemsci.bsky.social @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Thanks to wonderful co-authors for this collaboration: @ridhikashyap.bsky.social, @ingmarweber.de, Masoomali Fatehkia, Jiani Yan, Xinyi Zhao, Douglas Leasure
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
See paper and appendix for more on technical validation. Estimates and interactive maps are available here: digitalgendergaps.org/dashboard/
digitalgendergaps.org
Digital Gender Gaps
Digital Gender Gaps
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Our estimates show large gaps in adoption levels and gender inequality within and between countries. In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.
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