iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Casey Breen

@caseybreen.bsky.social

1.9K followers 101 following 54 posts

Demographer. Assistant Professor @ UT-Austin. caseybreen.com

Posts Replies Media

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

This new method can be used to monitor trends in crude death rates over time.

110

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

However, the household estimate from the *probability* sample was much higher than other estimates, which may reflect strategic over-reporting (high levels of NGO operations in the area have been hypothesized to create incentives to overreport deaths).

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

From the quota sample, our estimates based on different types of respondent reports (i.e., reports on neighbors, kin, and household) produce similar and plausible crude death rate estimates. As we reweighted to account for selection into the quota sample, the estimated death rates increased.

110

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

To account for selection into our quota sample, we constructed survey weights under several scenarios reflecting different hypothetical levels of auxiliary data availability for weighting targets.

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

An advantage of the network approach is that each interview provides mortality information on many more people than a typical mortality survey that asks respondents only about their household or siblings.

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

Qualitative fieldwork suggested testing two different types of personal networks as the basis for estimates: deaths among immediate neighbors and deaths among kin.

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

We collected original data in Tanganyika Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, a realistic setting where such emergencies have happened in the past. Study design involved two data collection efforts: a quota sample possible in a humanitarian emergency and probability comparator sample.

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 19/11/2025

We adapt the network survival method to the unique setting of humanitarian emergencies. The idea behind the network survival method is that respondents can report on 1) the size of their social network and 2) deaths in their social networks. This info can be aggregated to estimate death rates.

100

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

Our estimates show large gaps in adoption levels and gender inequality within and between countries. In most countries, adoption is increasing over time and gender inequality is decreasing — with notable exceptions, such as Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban Resurgence.

110

Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

We construct these subnational estimates by training machine learning algorithms on Facebook user count data, satellite and geospatial data, and household survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).

120