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Cook Political Report moves Kansas to a Toss-up! This is absolutely wild. They also moved New Hampsire back to Lean Dem, and moved North Carolina to Likely Democratic The question now for Kansas is: can any candidate break from the dead heat ? www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...

cookpolitical.com

A Senate Majority is Squarely in Democrats’ Sights as Kansas Moves to Toss Up; Two Other Races Shift Left

Four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate map is shifting further in Democrats’ favor — and with it, their odds of winning back the majority.While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in a...

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 12h

660 hours remain until the Midterms. More states begin in-person early voting. -BALLOTS OUT IN ALL STATES EXCEPT- CO (10/9), UT (10/13), HI, OR & WA (10/16) -EARLY VOTING IN-PERSON- CA, IN, OH, NM, WY --AWAITING IN-PERSON VOTING-- 10/7: AZ 10/9: CO 10/13: UT 10/14: IA, RI, TN 10/15: NC

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 15h

NEW — Republicans are moving $5 million into South Carolina’s Senate race, with the Senate Leadership Fund stepping in to boost Darline Graham as the contest draws increased attention. @Axios.com reports the spending is being treated as an “insurance policy.”

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Why? This feels stupid, we don't need courtrooms to become a TV/Social Media show

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I wouldn't underestimate the impact of this. Sure, 90$ isn't much in the grand scheme of things, but a struggling Senior might have a sightly better view of Trump after this, and might not vote Dem because of this. It's a small impact, but that matters in close races

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Dan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

New: Trump’s abrupt announcement to send $90 payments to seniors by dipping into a Medicare fund has rattled Capitol Hill. One GOP aide told WaPo that lawmakers had planned to use the money to offset funding for community health centers, diabetes programs and other initiatives.

washingtonpost.com

Trump announces plan to send $90 payments to millions of seniors

The White House said the one-time payments would be drawn from a fund set up to improve Medicare.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Poll Closing Times for Midterms (in EST): 12am: American Samoa & Dixville Notch 4am: Northern Mariana Islands 5am: Guam 4pm: Puerto Rico 6pm: Indiana & Kentucky 7pm and over: Rest of states

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

He is in Kansas, not California

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

Georgia GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson currently has nearly as much advertising booked as Democrats do across the governor’s races in Florida, Texas, Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Nevada combined, per @politico.com.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

NEW — Nearly 21 million Medicare enrollees are set to receive one-time $90 payments this month ahead of the midterms. Direct-deposit recipients will also receive an email or letter from President Trump in mid-October, according to CMS.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 04/10/2026

One month until first polls close.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 04/10/2026

Trump asks his supporters at a rally tonight in Ohio to "just pretend" he is on the ballot: “Even if you hate Jon Husted, even if you hate Vivek Ramaswamy, you're gonna go out, you're gonna vote.”

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Quite funny ad from Hilton honestly www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiZ5...

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

Kansas Senate polls (since 8/16) 10/1 (Trafalgar): 🔵 Hamilton +1 (R) 🆕 9/30 (NYT/Siena): 🟡 Even 9/24 (Wedgewood): 🔵 Hamilton +2 9/16 (GSG): 🔵 Hamilton +4 (D) 9/16 (Emerson) 🔵 Hamilton +1 9/10 (co/efficient): 🔴 Marshall +5 (R) 8/16 (GSG): 🔵 Hamilton +1 (D)

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

Nearly 1,400 workers were laid off at a Springfield, Ohio, truck factory just days before President Trump rallies nearby, per @apnews.com. The layoffs erased a year of job growth in the Dayton metro area. Trump won Clark County, home to Springfield, by nearly 30 points in 2024.

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Dhruv Mehrotra @dmehro.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

NEW: DHS agents tracked people observing ICE arrests, photographed them, ran their plates, pulled personal information, and added them to a Palantir database, according to newly unsealed court filings. w/ @regret.bsky.social

wired.com

ICE Has Been Dumping Protester Photos Into a Palantir Database

DHS agents not only tracked and intimidated people observing ICE activity in Maine, but stored information about them in a Palantir-built database, newly unsealed court filings say.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

The Kansas Senate race has narrowed rapidly, moving from Solid R to Lean R in our forecast since July. Adam Hamilton (D) now leads by 0.1 points in our polling average. The shift comes as the Senate GOP’s top super PAC moved nearly eight figures into Kansas from North Carolina.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Completely unamerican. You may disagree with what she did, but I remember an amendment you (Republicans) guys used to stand for... Ah right, it's the First Amendment, Freedom of Speech !

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

And he can't be removed unless you have 67 Senators convicting him. The best Dems can do is make his life hell. But I don't think that's the best strategy. Investigate his administrations, win impeachments convictions of "the worst of the worst" in his cabinet

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CNN @cnn.com · 03/10/2026

President Trump said he will give around 20 million senior citizens $90 each to help pay for their Medicare Part B premiums, marking his latest effort to dole out funds to certain Americans weeks before the midterm elections. cnn.it/4ytSUHZ

cnn.com

Trump to give $90 to senior citizens for Medicare premiums | CNN Politics

President Donald Trump said late Friday he will give around 20 million senior citizens $90 each to help pay for their Medicare Part B premiums, marking his latest effort to dole out funds to certain A...

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

If he does after January 3rd, we’d then have 5 GOP judges, 3 Dem judges. In some situations, we’d have a tied court. The only other probability that may happen after 1/3 is Thomas retiring/passing, which would then make it a 4-3 court. Dem Senate would likely halt any new justices added until ‘29.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I would hope Thilis, Cornyn, Cassidy amd McConnell would then block it because it's undemocratic, but I have lost hope that 'Good Republicans' exist in the Senate

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 02/10/2026

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito considered retiring from the court this year, but ultimately decided to stay, he told CBS News. The 76-year-old plans to reconsider retirement each year.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Dear lord, I hate those comments that insult voters because they disagree with the outcome. Jackson is a weak candidate. He hasn't done outreach to Northern Maine. Next time perhaps Maine should not chose flawed candidates.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 03/10/2026

Susan Collins continues to show crossover strength in Maine, per the latest CBS News poll. Even among voters who say Troy Jackson’s policies would leave them financially better off, Collins wins nearly one in five. And 21% of voters say Senate control isn’t a factor in their vote.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Troy Jackson leads over Susan Collins tightens to +2 pts in @fiftyplusone.news average fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate... A CBS poll found 19% of voters who disapproved of Trump will vote for Collins. Jackson needs to campaign way more and stop thinking this is a won race.

fiftyplusone.news

FiftyPlusOne - Maine General Senate Election Polls and Average for the 2026 General Election

A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: U.S. House 🟦 Democrats: 75% 🟥 Republicans: 25% Democrats average 234 seats across 1 million simulations and are at least slight favorites in 21 Republican-held seats:

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

DDHQ Forecast Update: Democrats remain favored to hold the House, with a 75% win probability and a projected seat count of 234. Democrats are forecasted to flip seats in nearly a dozen states from coast to coast.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This might matter, Hamilton will have more difficulty fighting with lot of outside ads coming in his state.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This might matter, Hamilton will have more difficulty fighting with lot of outside ads coming in his state.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 02/10/2026

NEWS — Senate Republicans’ top super PAC is pausing its ad campaign in North Carolina and shifting seven figures into Kansas, per @semafor.com.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

With the midterms coming soon, here are my predictions for the US Senate: 0. Michigan: The state will go to El-Sayed, but more narrowly than confortable. 1. Maine: If Votehub is to be believed, Jackson still has not toured the red part of the state, which might cost him the election.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

2. North Carolina : Roy Cooper looks like he will sail to victory pretty easily. Even the incumbent senator Thillis has said so. 3. Georgia: Ossof will win re-election pretty easily, in what looks like a purple state now. 4. Ohio: Brown (D) has a stable lead in polls, so I would expect him to win

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I don't expect It to go Democratic, but another gaffe from Darline Graham could help her opponent. It goes without saying, those races are correlated. If Osborn wins Nebraska, I would expect all those races to be won by Democrats. Some can buck the trend, but only so far.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

year. But I don't necessarily expect a 7 pts swing in Nebraska. The state might just be too red to be won. We'll see South Carolina : It recently poped up as competitive, probably because Darline Graham is a weak candidate. The state is Trump +18, and has last voted for a Democratic Senator in 98.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

, Nebraska seems to slowly shift from Republicans. It voted for Trump by 25 pts in 2016, but 20 pts in 2024, despite economic conditions being better in 2016 (so more favorable). Dan Osborn, formerly independent, tried to win the seat in 2024 and lost by only 7pts, in what was a strong Republican

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Nebraska: To write this thread, I looked up the state 2024 Trump vote, and it went to the president by 20 points! So the state is redder than Kansas, despite having last elected a Democratic senator (Ben Nelson) this century, not last century. To add an ingredient to an already full shopping cart

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

opponent. The state has not voted for a Democratic Senator since the Great Depression (1932). In 2024, it voted for Trump by +16 pts. This seat is at the outer limit of the Democrat reach, in other words if this seat falls, I expect all seats mentioned above to be Democratic. I don't expect it.

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

to 50% New Hampshire and Minnesota : they are too blue too shift to Republican, especially in environment. I know the polling is close for MN, but more than 10% are undecided, they will go for Dems. Kansas: Adam Amhilton, a pastor, is doing very well in polls. He is polling even with his Republican

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

much about this race, but polls show a dead-heat, technically Turek (D) is ahead by a inch. But with 8% still undecided, I expect Hinson to get most of these votes. It's a good time to remember that a candidate having a lead over the other doesn't matter much in two-way races, what you need is get

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

screw up or something damaging comes about him (I doubt it but who knows) 6. Alaska : Mary Peltola (D) looks like a uniquely strong candidate. The state is quite red, but economic issues in remote Alaska might help her win. She will win. 7. Iowa: I feel like Hinson (R) will win. I don't know as

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

tightened and if the trend continues, it might shift to 2% which would be within the MOE. I still expect this to be a Democratic pick-up, but with less certainty than two weeks ago. Especially, with the enormous amount of money to support Paxton. I would say Talarico will only win if he doesn't

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

That being said, Ohio recently lifted the state gas tax, which will ease the pain on drivers. This might ease voters concern on economy and make it a bit more difficult for Brown. 5. Texas: for much of September, Talarico (D) had a consequent lead in polls (4%). In the last week however, it has

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

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Caracter @caracter.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Quick tip : don't focus too much on the ratings change for quantitative forecasters. Look at it over several days, and assume 64% (toss-up) is the same as 65% (Lean) But recently, the most notable change has been how more and more confident the model has been for Texas

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 29/09/2026

Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton (D) tells @ms.now he would only serve two terms if elected. He would be 74 at the end of a second term.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 30/09/2026

2018 TX U.S. Senate polls (8/25-9/29) 9/20 (PPP 1): 🔴 Cruz +3 (D sponsor) 9/20 (PPP 2): 🔴 Cruz +3 (D sponsor) 9/18 (Vox Pop): 🟡 Even 9/17 (Qpac): 🔴 Cruz +9 9/14 (Ipsos): 🔵 O'Rourke +2 9/12 (Chism): 🔴 Cruz +4 (D sponsor) 9/9 (Crosswind): 🔴 Cruz +3 9/7 (Dixie): 🔴 Cruz +4 8/25 (Emerson): 🔴 Cruz +1

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