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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 7h

There has been some chatter that on January 3rd, Speaker Johnson will fire the Clerk of The House (Kevin McCumber) and replace him with someone who will side with Trump and not allow the new Congress to convene.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 9h

There is now a higher chance that Dems win more than 249 seats in the House (16%), then gaining around 230-233 seats (15%).

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 9h

VoteHub Current Tossup Midterm Results [Senate] (10/1): *states that VH currently shows NC: D+40.3% (-.8) [FLIP] FL: D+23.3% (-9.1) [FLIP] OH: D+20.1% (+5.6) [FLIP] AK: R+8.9 (-.2)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10h

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 9/30): *Requested ballots ONLY Statewide: Dems: 860,400 (+17.4k) GOP: 680,003 (+14.3k) Ind: 391,731 (+8.5k) Total: 1,932,134/15,211,481 (12.7% of '18) St. Johns: Dems: 9,561 (+152) GOP: 8,064 (+220) Ind: 4,192 (+140) Total: 21,817/144,654 (15% of '22)

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 19h

Florida Democrats have notched their first monthly voter registration lead Since 2021. In September 2026, Democrats added 29,633 active registrations compared to 29,140 for Republicans and 24,751 for others.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 17h

The Senate has now officially gone into recess until after the midterms. Midterms are on November 3rd. The next time they will both be in session will be November 9th.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

FWIW, we haven't had any Senate polls from WY or WV because people say "it's heavily Republican". We said that about Idaho, and now it's possible it flips. It's an R+18 state.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Insane. Never would've thought I'd see the center of the country go from solidly red to flipping in the span of 2 years. Can't even imagine what '28 brings.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 9/28): *Requested ballots ONLY Statewide: Dems: 842,983 (+183k) GOP: 665,664 (+180k) Ind: 383,207 (+95k) Total: 1,937,798/15,211,481 (12.7% of '18) St. Johns: Dems: 9,409 (+66) GOP: 7,844 (+68) Ind: 4,052 (+10k) Total: 21,305/144,654 (14.7% of '22)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Not everyday you see New Mexico have a NHC cone in it!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

DDHQ probability Dem/Ind wins (9/29): Iowa nears flip. R+23: Wyoming (1%) R+21: West Virginia (>1%) R+18: Idaho (3%) R+17: Oklahoma (2%) R+15: Alabama (5%) R+15: Arkansas (4%) R+15: Kentucky (5%) R+15: South Dakota (3%) R+14: Tennessee (3%) ↑ R+11: Louisiana (12%) [+2] ...

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

VoteHub Current Midterm Results [Senate] (9/29): *states that VH currently shows NC: D+41.1% (-9.5) [FLIP] FL: D+32.4% (-2.5) [FLIP] OH: D+14.5% (-8.7) [FLIP] AK: R+9.1 (+9.1)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

With the landfall of Polo in New Mexico, this will now create the wet El Nino this winter for FL as an approaching cold front and Polo's remnants coincide with each other. We will see our last heat index near 100 on Sunday, then eventually see lows as low as the low 60s in the days ahead.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Every county I've lived in and how they voted: Sarasota ('00): 51.6% GOP Cherokee ('04): 79% GOP Cherokee ('08): 74.8% GOP Sarasota ('12): 53.1% GOP Sarasota ('16): 53.8% GOP Sarasota ('20): 54.7% GOP Sarasota ('24): 58.4% GOP St. Johns ('26 expected): 66.3% GOP

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

How Roberts County, TX is trending in each election (the most Republican county in the US) '20: R+93% (Pres) '24: R+92.1% (Pres) '26: R+91.2% (Gov) / R+83.6% (Senate)

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Florida Polling: Governor: 🔵Jolly: 48% 🔴Donalds: 46% Senate: 🔴Moody: 48%* 🔵Nixon: 47% Change Research / Sept 27, 2026 (Current FL-GOV model: GOP 53% - DEM 47%) (Current FL-SEN model: GOP 52% - DEM 48%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...

unitedstatespolling.com

Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic

Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I've genuinely put in more work on a video than this, and technically this was paid with my tax dollars.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This is honestly the first time in a long time I've seen Halloween celebrated in a long time. Doesn't feel like it's been this celebrated since like '18/'19. Hope I can get in the mood too. Since then, my celebratory side has pretty much plummeted, and I used to like holidays alot!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

VoteHub Current Midterm Results [Senate] (9/28): *states that VH currently shows NC: D+50.6% [FLIP] FL: D+32.4% [FLIP] OH: D+23.2% [FLIP] AK: EVEN

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Sleeper races for Senate (in my opinion) (9/28): (DDHQ chance to win) From Safe R seats: SD: Brian Bengs (I) (3%) [+1] ID: Todd Achilles (I) (3%) AR: Hallie Shoffner (4%) KY: Charles Booker (5%)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

DDHQ probability Dem/Ind wins (9/28): Iowa nears flip. R+23: Wyoming (1%) ↓ R+21: West Virginia (>1%) ↑ R+18: Idaho (3%) [+1] R+17: Oklahoma (2%) R+15: Alabama (5%) R+15: Arkansas (4%) R+15: Kentucky (5%) ↑ R+15: South Dakota (3%) [+1] R+14: Tennessee (3%) ↑ R+11: Louisiana (12%) [+2] ...

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Overall top 5 longest Dem droughts: (year of next election for seat) [percentage to win seat according to DDHQ '26/Kalshi '28] 1913: Kansas (2026) [22%] ↑ 1932: Kansas (2028) [27%] → 1948: Idaho (2026) [3%] ↑ 1954: South Carolina/Wyoming (2026) [28%/1%] ↑ ✅ 1960: Texas (2026) [57%] ↑

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

New straw poll shows that Carolyn Rodrigues places a close second in the UN Secretary General position.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

FiftyPlusOne now moves Idaho into "Likely R" territory, alongside with The Economist. This is still realistically the most difficult state that Dems/Independents could flip this season, but have a few more weeks to change that.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 9/23): *Requested ballots ONLY Statewide: Dems: 659,521 (+552k) GOP: 485,625 (+445k) Ind: 287,592 (+249k) Total: 1,466,997 (9.6% of '18) of 15,211,481 St. Johns: Dems: 9,343 (+9k) GOP: 7,776 (+7k) ↑ Ind: 2,997 (+2k) Total: 20,116 (14% of '22) of 144,654

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

36 days remain until the Midterms. Earliest early voting states next in 7 days. -BALLOTS OUT- NC, AL, PA, WI, MN, SD, VA, VT, DE, KY, AR, WV, NY, NJ, MI, TX, IN, ID, OK, LA, MS, ME, MD, GA, MO, KS, IL, NE, ND, CA, FL, MT, NV, NM, WY, OH, IA, CT, MA, NH, RI, AZ, SC, TN, AK

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

We are back! BlueSky appropriately down the past few hours as I was waking up. Will be posting other things shortly and do some catch up.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Got home about an hour ago. Should hopefully post updates and gather myself tomorrow by noon. Just had a little snack but way to tired to do anything but post this. Will be soooo fun catching up on everything...

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

JUST IN: Today El Niño Broke its Record Hottest Temperature Ever! 🥵 Today the El Niño region surpassed 2015 for the highest temp ever measured in the El Niño (3.4) region. It comes 2 months earlier than typical peak (late Nov/ Dec)…

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Polling USA Senate Rating Changes: Iowa: 🔴Tilt GOP -> 🔵Tilt DEM Georgia: 🔵Likely DEM -> 🔵Safe DEM Maine: 🔵Lean DEM -> 🔵Tilt DEM Florida: 🔴Tilt GOP -> 🔴Lean GOP - September 27, 2026 - usapolling.substack.com/p/republican...

usapolling.substack.com

Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic

Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 27/09/2026

Breaking News! Code: FUBAR!!! The preliminary Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature for September 25th was 29.822°C. This breaks the previous highest temperature ever recorded in the region of 29.815°C, set on November 17th, 2015. The Climate 8-ball is exiting, stage right.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The fact that I can match with someone on Tinder and then she immediately unmatches after I say one sentence is literally my dating life in a nutshell, regardless of where I live.

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

As I predicted on my podcast weeks ago, Grassley won’t run in 2028 if Rob Sand wins the governor’s race. It’s probably the only thing that will finally get him to leave.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I would suggest for JKL to end his show January 20th, 2029!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Since I am currently in GA, it’ll be pretty difficult for me to be stream the numerous hurricanes affecting HI, CA/AZ/NM and NY (nor’easter). I’ll see what I can do, but don’t count on it. Will be back in FL Sunday, hopefully with a new course in life. Maybe get a quick job there, then move here 😆

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Grant Tosterud @granttosterud.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Southern New Mexico is now inside the NHC forecast cone. Polo will weaken significantly over Mexico, but its moisture could still get pulled north into NM. This does NOT mean a hurricane will hit NM, but heavy rain and flash flooding will return early next week. #NMwx

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

BREAKING: TRUMP ALLIES SAY IF DEMS WIN THE MIDTERMS, HE WILL ISSUE MARTIAL LAW. ALLIES SAY IF RIOTS HAPPEN, MILITARY WILL TAKE OVER THE STREETS.

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Nebraska - Senate Polling: ⚪Osborn: 47% 🔴Ricketts: 46%* GBAO / Sept 8, 2026 (Osborn Commissioner)

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Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Tucker Carlson told NPR that Donald Trump should be removed from office via the 25th Amendment over his threats against Iran.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Surprised NHC isn’t naming this, potential hurricane like conditions for NYC Sunday!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Loving it here in Young Harris and gets me inspired to move here. Thinking maybe my next idea is to continue sending in job applications, but each week do it county by county ty and then move north each week. I’m in a dire situation now for money at this point. Would like to live here though!

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026

No president has ever gone into a midterm election as unpopular as Trump is today. Not even George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's net approval is twice as low as it was at this point in 2018. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/no-preside...

blog.fiftyplusone.news

Democrats hit midterm high as Trump approval reaches new low

No president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular. Not even George W. Bush in 2006.

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

BREAKING on MS NOW: MS NOW, CNN, and Politico have filed a notice of noncompliance with the Temporary Restraining Order Judge Kelly issued on Trump's media ban and are asking him to set an immediate hearing.

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Dr. Jessie Christiansen @aussiastronomer.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Congrats to the whole PRIMA team on the selection of NASA's first Probe Explorer mission!!!!!! @caltechipac.bsky.social will be PRIMA's science center, and we look forward to working with everyone over the next decade on this exciting project! www.nasa.gov/news-release...

nasa.gov

NASA Selects Far-Infrared Telescope as First in New Mission Class - NASA

NASA announced Wednesday a mission to explore the history and evolution of the universe, PRIMA (PRobe far-Infrared Mission for Astrophysics), is advancing to

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 23/09/2026

Trump winces in pain during the loud military flyover as Xi shows no reaction

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

One of the craziest runs I’ve ever seen of the GFS. Has snow in the northern tip of TX (around 34 degrees) while Brownsville has 91 degree temperatures at the same time! Insanity! El Niño about to rear its ugly head big time!

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