Writer Sarah Wilson argues we’re hurtling toward the same end as ancient Rome and the Mayan civilisation – but there’s plenty to fight for

A daily game that challenges our understanding of human cultures. Ten objects. 5,000 years of human history. Guess where and when each artifact was made. See how you rank.

We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the i...

(Forthcoming Article) - Multiple lines of research aim to quantify the economic impacts of climate change. We show that the effects of climate change on economic activity depend on how climate change alters weather across time and space. Changes in contemporary weather have direct effects on output; changes in past weather and in expectations of future weather induce adaptation; and changes in weather elsewhere around the globe introduce a general equilibrium effect. Using this framework, we argue that estimation of climate impacts faces a trilemma. A methodology can have at most two of: (i) robustness to a particular economic model’s structure, (ii) interpretation as effects of persistent, widespread, anticipated climate change, and (iii) quasi-experimental identification. We summarize the literature on climate damages in light of the trilemma. A solid body of knowledge has developed around direct effects, and recent work has made substantial progress towards understanding adaptation and spatial spillovers.

Weather forecasts in low-income countries are about 20 years behind those in high-income countries, worsening economic losses and increasing vulnerability to climate-related risks.