iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes (a weird year + what’s next for me/this newsletter) www.optimisticallie.com/p/changes

optimisticallie.com

🥲 Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

A weird year + what’s next for me/this newsletter

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Regardless of Warsh's rhetorical choices, he's arguably the most impactful public figure when it comes to interest rates. Interest rates are the most important variable in how we all approach financial decisions. At the very least, he needs to keep his story straight.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

🍾 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍾 My take on private investments www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-privat...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Woof, what a chart. $GOOG just posted its first quarter of negative free cash flow in at least 10 years.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

🐂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🐂 This bull market has been the product of a handful of stocks pulling the S&P 500 higher. Yet this year, nearly half of S&P stocks are outperforming the index. Are we finally in the midst of a strong, broad, raging bull? www.optimisticallie.com/p/a-full-bull

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

I have had many thoughts since returning to work, but these two are constants: Working moms are superheroes. This is the hardest thing I’ve ever done.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

If inflation is a risk you’re worried about, stocks can be your antidote. Inflation may eat into your budget, but it also helps companies build pricing power. Be both an employee and a shareholder. Annualized change in the S&P and CPI by decade:

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Not me immediately CTRL+Fing "task force" on the Fed minutes

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

🎆 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎆 Why I'm still heavily invested in America: www.optimisticallie.com/p/united-sta...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

📢 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 📢 Kevin Warsh — the new Fed chair — is a man of few words. He's actively reining in Fed communication, a tool his predecessors have leaned on heavily (esp Jay Powell) And your portfolio is part of this experiment. optimisticallie.com/p/a-smaller-...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Happy Fed day to all who observe. Gone from the podium, but forever in our hearts.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

🔥 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔥 We all know temperatures rise in degrees. Inflation does as well. And there are differences between today's hot, hot heat and the market-melting scorcher that was 2022 www.optimisticallie.com/p/hot-hot-heat

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Prices are growing faster than paychecks. American wallets are getting squeezed. This is a fact. How much will this matter to the vibes? A lot. How much will this matter to economic momentum? TBD.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

🍗 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍗 AI companies are shoving a monstrous amount of new shares down our throats. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs alone could exceed the strongest year for IPO issuance in recent history. Can we actually swallow all of this? www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-you-ca...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

There are a lot of eye-popping stats out there about the massive SpaceX IPO My favorite: $SPCX's $75 billion float alone would be equal to the second-strongest year for all IPOs since the turn of the century

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

I'm back. Why AI will never replace good research (because the best analysts chew gum 🧠) www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-best-a...

optimisticallie.com

🧠 The best analysts chew gum

Why AI will never replace good research

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Crude oil and the 10-year yield have moved in the same direction for 17 trading days (almost a month!), the longest streak since the beginning of my data in 1985. Inflation expectations rule everything around me (us).

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Trading activity (or turnover, share volume times share price) in leveraged ETFs and ETNs reached a record $45.9 billion in March Those of you who thrive in market chaos are absolutely feasting in this particular moment

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

I'm so in love with my kids. I'm so excited to get back to work soon.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Younger Americans are struggling through an affordability crisis. Their parents are sitting on $90 trillion in cash, investments and home equity, with many of them waiting until they die to pass it on. Why aren't more people giving while living? www.optimisticallie.com/p/giving-whi...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Friends, meet Theodore Patterson Cox & Isabel Marilyn Cox, born January 12. Everybody is happy, healthy and thriving (although Mom and Dad are admittedly exhausted). I wrote a stream of consciousness on some of the most important work I'll ever do. www.optimisticallie.com/p/theo-and-i...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country. bsky.app/profile/apne...

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Reposted by Callie Cox

Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation” It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

federalreserve.gov

Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testi

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 26/12/2025

Several years ago, a male colleague told me how unfair it is that women get a three-month vacation in maternity leave Boy do I think about that comment a lot as I vomit and waddle my way to the finish line.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus. But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁 www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

PERSONAL(ISH) NEWS: I hate slop research. And I'm building a research business with @thecompoundnews.bsky.social optimisticallie.com/p/slop-resea...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

Thankful for all of you ❤️ 🦃

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/11/2025

🎶 Do you have to? do you have to? do you have to let it linger? 🎶

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

🍂 ATTENTION ADVISORS 🍂 We're conducting research on how you talk about legacies, estates and inheritances in your practices. Give us 5 mins of your time, and you'll be entered into a raffle for a $100 Amazon gift card. Take the survey HERE: qualtricsxmdbbjzg4m7.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

You, the halfway tuned in cousin: wow Fed members really agree on nothing huh Me, a Fed nerd: yeah well that's what happens when the two sides of the dual mandate are in conflict OK? nobody agrees on which target to shoot at. btw pass the potatoes

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs. In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment. Higher unemployment can be good or bad. This is bad.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 17/11/2025

🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭 The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks. Just the good stuff. www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑 The economy normally drives the stock market But is the stock market driving the economy now?! I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

😵‍💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵‍💫 Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing. Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns. www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008. Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis. I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead: www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖 The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year. Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes. But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others. www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳 On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

Two interesting stats: The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date. The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂 Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market. Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it (bulls last longer than you think) optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂 I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months) Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio: www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years. This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

“Stocks can’t fall when no bad news is coming out” is the new “my team can’t lose if it’s a bye week” 😉😉😉

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

All around bad data dump for the job market this morning: Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑 What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek! TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie. Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox: optimisticallie.com/subscribe

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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡 On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates? Probably not. The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...

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