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brr

@brr.bsky.social
448 followers 299 following 1.6K posts
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 5h
the way this is trending you'd have to think Hinojosa makes this a tied race by eday
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 11h
idk this polling lookings fine here. the race tightened by eday and the final two polls (d+7.5) were pretty close
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 11h
yes but the marist poll shows Hochul is not doing great in NYC either
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 12h
I'm not sure what's going on in NY. polling does not seem to show this in PA or NJ (and not in the gov race last year either)
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 14h
this would be pretty bad if she only won by 11
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
in places this might not happen like Texas (tbd) it might just be candidate quality. and I do think hispanic voters will shift left but polls right now show they're not voting like pre-2020 yet
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
yeah ive noticed in other polls too where the hispanic R number is in the 30s and not 20s like 2018
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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This is actually a pretty disappointing poll, ngl. NBC/Telemundo's 2024 GCB poll was D+12 and their presidential poll was D+14. If this poll is right, it suggests that Latinos aren't swinging more strongly against Trump. The 2020-2024 realignment "stuck" in other words.
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
@purrtah.bsky.social
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
according to nate cohn, who runs the nyt polling, democrats are apparently strong with low propensity voters right now
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
And it’s quite something Trump’s approval sinking in GOP internals has happened in the last two weeks. That doesnt seem like late breaking undecided voters are going GOP
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
If Talarico does win by 6 he probably would've beat Cornyn too. I think he will win by 1-2
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
2018 they did underestimate Rs in the midwest
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
not true.. in 2022 they ran in opposition to the right wing supreme count and on abortion. they were running in opposition to maga in both 2022 and 2024. they run against big tech and cuts to health care and a whole bunch of other stuff
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 28/09/2026
All the State Senate seats in the US that voted for Trump, but by under 10%. Obviously Democrats hold some of these seats, but these are the big targets for Democrats in 2026. Both in defending them, and flipping them. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
tell me if im wrong bsky.app/profile/brr....
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I just cannot imagine a 2028 primary without someone credible from the left. it would just be hard to fathom after the last 2 years.
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
as much as I like Talarico and think he can win, I bet Hamilton would make Texas likely D
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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Texas Lt. Gov told GOP donors at a fundraiser today multiple state senators are in trouble, him and Abbott are locked in tight races, and he Senate race is tied
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Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Texas Statewide Poll (Marist) Senate 🔵James Talarico 50% 🔴Ken Paxton 44% Governor 🔵Gina Hinojosa 49% 🔴Greg Abbott 46% 9/17-9/20 Link to poll: maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/u...
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
it would be pretty tough to do. I think the filing deadline is in April in new york. but that's assuming no one else is running for senate
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
it would be pretty hard assuming she's not like in 7th place or anything
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
the early vote was useful in both VA elections in the last year so I think you can read a little into this
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Fairfax was 99% of Day 1 2025 on Friday but did 104% of its Sat number to now also be ahead of 2025 It’s very very early but def an enthusiastic start from VA Ds
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
the discourse
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
85 posts??
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Don't have time to dig into this rn, but VA EV Day 1: Turnout overall down from last year's day 1, but it seems like Harris-won localities held up better Harris won 38 of the 112 localities w/ proper data here But she won 17 of the 29 that exceeded 2025's day 1
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
but we saw a big shift northeast last year in new jersey and i guess virginia
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
spending is a concern but a lot of this is from super pacs who get worse rates for tv ads than candidates
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
they tried but courts ruled in favor of dems. they will probably bring it up again thehill.com/regulation/c...
thehill.com
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
a lot of this spending is from super pacs who get worse rates for tv ads than candidates.
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
full ad here bsky.app/profile/brr....
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
republican in trump+15 south florida district breaking with trump on immigration
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Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Texas Statewide Poll (Siena) Senate 🔵James Talarico 49% 🔴Ken Paxton 43% Governor 🔵Gina Hinojosa 49% 🔴Greg Abbott 45% 9/8-9/11 Link: reconmr.com/wp-content/u...
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Cornyn leaves the senate blank on his ballot?
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Hunter Dunn @hunterisntdunn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Current Republican Senator John Cornyn (Texas) is now vagueposting about a possible endorsement of James Talarico, instead of Ken Paxton (who gave a pedophile a plea deal to escape jail time). Be prepared for a truly nuclear October Surprise in the Texas Midterms
Senator John Cornyn « fAl
@JohnCornyn
Why I'm Voting for a Texas Democrat by @KarlRove wsj.com/opinion/why-im... via
@WSJopinion
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
i dont know how anyone can believe this
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
deleted
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
a little crazy how much of twitter now is just kalshi and polymarket promotion accounts farming engagement
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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
I gotta say, the whole "Charlie Kirk Effect" was the biggest nothingburger I've ever seen in my years of following elections. This was from a special election in Minnesota about a week after it happened where the Democrats underperformed by 5 points. They then proceeded to belt the GOP in November.
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
it was probably doing better with hispanic voters
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
fair, i mean more than other dems
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
he also votes with Trump a lot
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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
James Clyburn says on @meetthepress.com that he supports adding four seats to the Supreme Court: “A baker’s dozen would be a good number to have on the court.”
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
yes but why even respond. it’s not like roy cooper or talarico or troy jackson are putting out statements on hasan
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Matt Ford @mford.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Ninth Circuit panel says 3-0 that Kalshi’s “sports events contracts” are not swaps under the CEA and Nevada gambling laws aren’t pre-empted by CFTC rules for prediction markets. A massive blow to the industry: cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/op...
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
yeah it's mostly the anti-talarico ads im wondering about
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
my only reservation is paxton only seems to be airing ads now so im going to see if that makes a difference
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brr @brr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
value of a dem senate is not minimal. winning the senate and blocking supreme court appointments might be more important than anything else the next two years
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Good gut check from @fiftyplusone.news: Despite all the handwringing about shadowy new pollsters this year, there are no more of them than in past years.
A bar graph showing the number of new pollsters by election cycle.
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