Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10hIt’s PFD week! I chatted with AKPM about what we as economists know about how people respond to receiving cash. 000
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026New working paper from Jacob, @kevinberryecon.bsky.social, Hannah and me on valuation of hurricane evacuations. Our contribution to the “Mayor of Amity Island” problem 🦈. Mayor knows the value of staying when the coast is dangerous but didn’t property count the value placed on leaving. 143
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Shared some thoughts on how fisheries issues are shaping the U.S. senate race in Alaska. 100
Reposted by Brett Watson UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research @iser-alaska.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Despite rising oil prices, Alaskans still face ongoing budget challenges and big decisions that will shape the state's future. ISER's @brettjwatson.bsky.social recently presented an analysis of Alaska's fiscal options to the Anchorage Downtown Rotary Club. 📸 Courtesy of Treece Hanley 122
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Been reading a lot lately about how Alaska’s election system advantages plurality wins as parties jockey to get favorable top 4 composition. Are there any examples of spoiler candidates in FPTP systems or is this spoiler effect unique to RCV/IRV? 121
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 08/07/2026My UAA/ISER colleague Brock Wilson breaks down federal employment losses in Alaska. Really cool data he’s put together for this project. 0134
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2026My friend Mouhcine Guattabi likes to say that it’s an economist’s job to tell you things that you already know and boy did I do a good job in this article. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/u...nytimes.comA Critical Political Season Could Decide if Alaska Is a Failed ‘Petrostate’ 000
Reposted by Brett Watson Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 10/01/2026This Week's Friday Column| We explain why significant changes in Alaska's oil tax code are needed "to better align the interests of the oil producers with the fiscal requirements of the state." #akleg buff.ly/dUNARBMbgkeithley.substack.comThe Friday column: The Gaffney Cline Report hits at least one nail squarely on the headWe explain why significant changes in Alaska's oil tax code are needed "to better align the interests of the oil producers with the fiscal requirements of the state" 011
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/01/2026Shared my thoughts on VZ/Alaska with @matt.akmemo.com www.akmemo.com/what-does-tr...akmemo.comWhat does Trump's vow to 'indefinitely' run Venezuela's oil fields mean for Alaska? Not much, at least for nowEven setting aside the geopolitical implications of Trump's regime change in Venezuela, the economic and logistical challenges don't make it a particularly attractive investment. 082
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/08/2025Today I got to celebrate my UAA tenure and promotion. Very grateful for friends, family, and my professional network for their support over the years. 1210
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 14/08/2025Kevin and I have not discussed this to coordinate the market, but my house is amazingly renting for the same nightly rate. 061
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 31/07/2025My favorite genre of panelist commentary: "The streets are full of $20 bills. To date, the (N=large) working groups/commissions/task forces we have assembled to figure out how to pick them up have failed, but task force N+1, with the 'right people' is really gonna crack this." 010
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Need a Letter Box style user review site for vaccines. Here’s my contribution: “MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!” 030
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 18/07/2025Nationalizing small but strategically critical industries is a reasonable approach. The efficiency gains foregone just can’t be big enough to matter in the context of some of these markets. 110
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/07/2025Alaska's manufacturing employment in May was 9,200 jobs, the lowest level of May employment in that industry in at least 24 years. Seafood getting pummeled. 100
Reposted by Brett Watson NBER @nber.org · 03/07/2025While building costs have only ever had limited explanatory power over US housing prices, even these imperfect correlations have weakened further in recent decades, from Brian Potter and Chad Syverson www.nber.org/papers/w33958 093
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 03/07/2025“And when every mineral is critical…”media.tenor.coma cartoon character from the movie the incredibles is wearing a black and white suit and a mask .ALT: a cartoon character from the movie the incredibles is wearing a black and white suit and a mask . 010
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/06/2025Alaska’s production tax was setup in the world where the state was the resource owner. Tax credits for the production tax were offset with revenue from royalties. But marginal barrels are now on fed not state land and our tax code probably needs a rethink under this new regime. 121
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 24/04/2025I have a new piece out today in The Conversation about Alaska LNG. I have more to say about this issue, but these are some of my high level thoughts for a national audience.theconversation.comAlaska, rich in petroleum, faces an energy shortageAlaska produces a lot of crude oil, but many of the state’s utilities, businesses and homes run on natural gas, which is in dwindling supply near population centers. 120
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 16/04/2025Still need a few more months of hard data before we can get a clear picture of what the macro impacts of the escalated tariffs are. 010
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 13/04/2025Interesting stats on attendance at United Methodist Churches in Alaska. 020
Reposted by Brett Watson Janelle Shane @janelleshane.com · 13/04/20251. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but 2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but 3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So 4. Now the LLM code points to malware. 12078743580
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 11/04/2025The strategy board game industry is in a crisis mode. Most game publishers are very small businesses that can't absorb these costs or pass them on. "the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."boardgamegeek.comTariff Talk from Publishers on Costs, Sales, Conventions, Projections, and More | BoardGameGeek News 000
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 11/04/2025How achievable are net zero pathways without CCS? Seems like the social gains from marching down the steepest part of the experience curve could be large. If DAC-EOR tech is carbon negative at the margin (given oil demand inelasticity) this seems like a win? 000
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2025@kevinberryecon.bsky.social just showed me we had a 17% increase yoy on declared economics majors last Wednesday. Interesting timing 181
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2025Keep thinking about how these signals are paradoxical. The more dire the warnings, the more likely the admin is to reverse course, and the less likely the warnings materialize. Does crying wolf keep it at bay? 040
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 06/04/2025German kids in store for a rockin Christmas this year. 120
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 05/04/2025Domestic producers respond to tariffs by raising prices. 030
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 30/03/2025Before accounting for the PFD.... cfo.dc.gov/sites/defaul... 010
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 22/03/2025Why are the lowest rates of support in rural Alaska? 110
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 15/03/2025From a state revenue perspective, Alaska’s oil tax code is poorly equipped to handle the shifting geography of production. 020
Reposted by Brett Watson John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 14/03/2025NEW 🧵 Is human intelligence starting to decline? Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s What should we make of this? www.ft.com/content/a801... 2892027813
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 09/03/2025Everyone knows the best place to start and grow a business is Sudan, because of its limited government, tax, and regulatory structures. www.wired.com/story/startu...wired.com‘Startup Nation’ Groups Say They’re Meeting Trump Officials to Push for Deregulated ‘Freedom Cities’The architects of projects like Próspera are drafting legislation to create US cities that would be free from federal regulations. 110
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/03/2025This is the first time I've seen snowbirding quantified with administrative data, and the first time I've seen absentee data from PFD applications used for any research purpose. Cool! live.laborstats.alaska.gov/trends-magaz... 1233
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 04/03/2025Jacob has been a fantastic colleague and friend during his postdoc here at UAA. I’m (selfishly) happy that the next step in his career is here in the Northwest. 050
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 03/03/2025OPEC opening up additional supply starting April 1. www.opec.org/opec_web/en/...opec.orgOPEC : Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability on healthier oil market outlook 010
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 24/02/2025Alaska’s oil production tax (and resources taxes more broadly) have dozens of mechanisms adjust on, but I hear persistent discussion on the per-barrel credits. However, that mechanism does not raise revenue with certainty! 030
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/02/2025ANC-JNU-SIT-SEA has to be the most scenic commercial route in the US. 180
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 12/01/2025Official now. After nearly a decade, Alaska hits new ATH level of employment. 040
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/01/2025“Today’s property tax revolt is a series of nested ironies. The first is that it is largely driven by property owners who are angry about how much their properties have increased in value.” slate.com/business/202...slate.comSchools and City Governments Rely on Property Taxes. What Happens When Homeowners Revolt?Reforms intended to achieve other goals may end up addressing a long-standing problem. 020
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 13/12/2024UAA is hiring in Business Analytics, open to Econ applicants. (Photo of a recent fly out) 1103
Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 04/12/2024That special day when Spotify reminds me how their algorithm and UI are overfitted and path dependent. 041