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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

@ak4sb.bsky.social
188 followers 11 following 6.1K posts

A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.

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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 2h
Monthly PFC Performance Charts | Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we have revised our monthly charts, which show the Permanent Fund's performance against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/4vSQLEJ). #akleg 1/4
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 3h
The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg 1/5
bit.ly
Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts
Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 4h
Exports as a %ANS| Due to COVID, a material share of ANS was exported to Asian (primarily Chinese) mkts from 2Q 2020 to 1Q 2022. However, from shortly after the start of the Ukraine War (Apr22), most has gone to the USWC, w/ only sporadic dels (CY26 YTD: 4%) to Asia. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 5h
USWC Supply Chart| Monthly as data becomes available from EIA we take a look at supply sources into PADD V (USWC) refineries. #akleg YTD (thru Jul), Alaska running ⬆️ 2.6% v. 2019 USWC mkt share (21.5% v 18.9%), but due to lower demand, vols ⬇️ 47kbd (401kbd). US sources 44.2% of total USWC supplies.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 6h
Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 7h
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.58% v PFC 6.11% * 3-yr: S&P 22.97% v PFC 9.89% * 1-yr: S&P 15.57% v PFC 10.37%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 8h
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $96 (+$1.05bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$30mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 9h
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $14), mid (⬆️ $3) & long-term (⬇️ $6) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev). 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (9.28.2026)
The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🤔🤔🤔 www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-korea-…
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.79% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.89% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 15.74% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $94 (+$940mil) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$49mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 25% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -14kbd (-3%) v. F'cast. 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed: YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels): > Crude demand: 82% & 90%; > Domestic share: 85% & 98%. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Ironically, the amount of the PFD cut this year for the same family of 4: $10,000, or a tax rate on that same middle-income Alaska family of 4 of more than 10%. You can thank your #akleg member for that (or not) at this fall's ballot box. buff.ly/vHZxEQL
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.58% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.99% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 16.5% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $94 (+$936mil) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$60mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekl…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Weekly Top 3 (9.28.2026)
The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-frida…
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
000
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.65% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.95% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $96 (+$1.0bn) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $72 (+$32mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Tuesday Chart| #akleg Given Southcentral winter service concerns, we have started a new weekly chart tracking the current status of the two commercial Cook Inlet gas storage fields, based on the public dashboards each maintains, as well as the most recent aggregate (all fields) DNR Dashboard.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This week's Top 3| Just how big are Alaska's tax expenditures? We do some dollar tracing. And coming attractions: after defined benefits & K-12, childcare. #WhoPays? The proponents, who cares. #akleg T'row 6:05a on The Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/7wk5op2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Applying U.S. income-group spending patterns to Anchorage/Mat-Su prices, here is an estimate of 2026 YTD inflation vs. 2025 by income bracket. Middle & lower-income households show higher inflation thru 2Q 2026. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg buff.ly/UfNE3ZK
buff.ly
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
000
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.30% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.92% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 18.62% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $95 (+$997mil) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $71 (+$27mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Monday Charts | Consistent with the approach explained at bit.ly/3QhAUju, each Monday we compare current futures market prices for projected #AKLNG in-state-only (Phase 1) and #AKLNG export (Phase 2) prices against market alternatives. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ
buff.ly
The Weekly Top 3 (9.21.2026)
Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg buff.ly/UfNE3ZK
buff.ly
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
000
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Most classify tax expenditures (revenue losses from provisions that create select discounts) as indirect govt spending. If we included them in the spending swoop chart, they (90% of which go to #OilCos) would be at least the second-largest category. #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg 1/4
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ship in maint., 1 FF underway to Asia. #akleg * Deliveries month to date: 13.5 * Not in ANS service: 1 CP in maint * Asia: 1 FF (likely EM chartered) * USWC: 9 (4 CP, 3 HIL, 2 EM, 0 MPC)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $104, ahead of Brent (+$3.28), and Brent/WTI avg (+$5.86). #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ
buff.ly
The Weekly Top 3 (9.21.2026)
Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others
000
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.30% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.92% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 18.62% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $95 (+$970mil) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $71 (+$27mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg buff.ly/UfNE3ZK
buff.ly
The Friday column: Once you see the math on this, you can’t unsee it
Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it.
000
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg 1/6
bit.ly
Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts
Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…
100
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.18% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.87% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 17.43% v PFC 11.36%
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg FY27: > Spring RF: $75 > Actual FYTD: $90 > +Futures: $95 (+$984mil) FY28-36: > Spring RF: $71 > Futures: $70 (-$12mil)
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $13), mid (⬆️ $2) & long-term (⬇️ $7) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev). 1/2
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This Week's Column| This week, we explain how the ongoing spike in oil prices is creating a key fiscal policy issue for this election cycle that candidates for #akgov and the #akleg need to address. buff.ly/O9RZ36h
buff.ly
The Friday column: This election’s fiscal question: What would candidates do with additional oil revenue?
This week, we explain how the ongoing spike in oil prices is creating a key fiscal policy issue for this election cycle that candidates for Governor and the Legislature need to address.
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ
buff.ly
The Weekly Top 3 (9.21.2026)
Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
PFD Estimates| Monthly, as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through August 2026. #akleg 1/5
bit.ly
Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Updating some monthly charts on the Permanent Fund
As regular followers of our Facebook, LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), and Bluesky pages will know, monthly, as information becomes available, we regularly publish a series of charts looking at the…
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Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg * 5-yr: S&P 13.22% v PFC 6.27% * 3-yr: S&P 22.88% v PFC 9.20% * 1-yr: S&P 17.12% v PFC 11.36%
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