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Brett Watson

@brettjwatson.bsky.social
483 followers 557 following 96 posts

Resource economist at UAA studying mining, fishing, and the Alaska PFD. 🏳️‍🌈

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Reposted by Brett Watson
UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research @iser-alaska.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
💡 ISER in the news: @universityofalaska.bsky.social Anchorage's @brettjwatson.bsky.social, associate professor of applied and natural resource economics, weighed in on last week's Alaska LNG announcement. Read more from @adn.com: www.adn.com/politics/202...
adn.com
South Korean official says Trump announcement on Alaska LNG went ‘far beyond what was agreed’
The governor and Republican incumbents in competitive U.S. Senate and House races said they expect South Korea to ultimately invest $54 billion. Some industry observers cast doubt on that prospect.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
It’s PFD week! I chatted with AKPM about what we as economists know about how people respond to receiving cash.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Just a working paper for now but currently under review!
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New working paper from Jacob, @kevinberryecon.bsky.social, Hannah and me on valuation of hurricane evacuations. Our contribution to the “Mayor of Amity Island” problem 🦈. Mayor knows the value of staying when the coast is dangerous but didn’t property count the value placed on leaving.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Shared some thoughts on how fisheries issues are shaping the U.S. senate race in Alaska.
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Reposted by Brett Watson
UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research @iser-alaska.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Despite rising oil prices, Alaskans still face ongoing budget challenges and big decisions that will shape the state's future. ISER's @brettjwatson.bsky.social recently presented an analysis of Alaska's fiscal options to the Anchorage Downtown Rotary Club. 📸 Courtesy of Treece Hanley
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Nice day for a walk
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
A normal moose.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
[point values are not shown in brackets]
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
A YTD comp from past 5 years would be a useful context add!
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Been reading a lot lately about how Alaska’s election system advantages plurality wins as parties jockey to get favorable top 4 composition. Are there any examples of spoiler candidates in FPTP systems or is this spoiler effect unique to RCV/IRV?
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
My UAA/ISER colleague Brock Wilson breaks down federal employment losses in Alaska. Really cool data he’s put together for this project.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
That’s what ISER is here for.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
My friend Mouhcine Guattabi likes to say that it’s an economist’s job to tell you things that you already know and boy did I do a good job in this article. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/u...
nytimes.com
A Critical Political Season Could Decide if Alaska Is a Failed ‘Petrostate’
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Reposted by Brett Watson
Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets @ak4sb.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
This Week's Friday Column| We explain why significant changes in Alaska's oil tax code are needed "to better align the interests of the oil producers with the fiscal requirements of the state." #akleg buff.ly/dUNARBM
bgkeithley.substack.com
The Friday column: The Gaffney Cline Report hits at least one nail squarely on the head
We explain why significant changes in Alaska's oil tax code are needed "to better align the interests of the oil producers with the fiscal requirements of the state"
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Shared my thoughts on VZ/Alaska with @matt.akmemo.com www.akmemo.com/what-does-tr...
akmemo.com
What does Trump's vow to 'indefinitely' run Venezuela's oil fields mean for Alaska? Not much, at least for now
Even setting aside the geopolitical implications of Trump's regime change in Venezuela, the economic and logistical challenges don't make it a particularly attractive investment.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
media.tenor.com
a man is saying cast it into the fire
ALT: a man is saying cast it into the fire
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
I’m already on the propane and propane accessories committee and the ad hoc task force to conduct the feasibility study on a department foosball table (scoping study benefit cost ratio estimated at 5:1).
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Today I got to celebrate my UAA tenure and promotion. Very grateful for friends, family, and my professional network for their support over the years.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Kevin and I have not discussed this to coordinate the market, but my house is amazingly renting for the same nightly rate.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
Ruh roh
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
My favorite genre of panelist commentary: "The streets are full of $20 bills. To date, the (N=large) working groups/commissions/task forces we have assembled to figure out how to pick them up have failed, but task force N+1, with the 'right people' is really gonna crack this."
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Recessionary indicator or Hacienda coupon?
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
AI does have some good use cases!
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
If I get to pick the 30 minutes, this deal only has upside.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
I know.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Need a Letter Box style user review site for vaccines. Here’s my contribution: “MMR vax has been great. Got it and the boosters at the recommended ages and have been Measles, Mumps, and Rubella free ever since!”
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
The government picking me as a winner: Haha fuck yeah!!! Yes!! The government picking me as a loser: Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Nationalizing small but strategically critical industries is a reasonable approach. The efficiency gains foregone just can’t be big enough to matter in the context of some of these markets.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Not helping, but this is being primarily driven by structural factors (in-state labor required for processing) and cyclical factors (abundance and non-tariff price factors).
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Alaska's manufacturing employment in May was 9,200 jobs, the lowest level of May employment in that industry in at least 24 years. Seafood getting pummeled.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Do interest rates have anything to do with oil prices or nah?
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Reposted by Brett Watson
NBER @nber.org · 03/07/2025
While building costs have only ever had limited explanatory power over US housing prices, even these imperfect correlations have weakened further in recent decades, from Brian Potter and Chad Syverson www.nber.org/papers/w33958
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
“And when every mineral is critical…”
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character from the movie the incredibles is wearing a black and white suit and a mask .
ALT: a cartoon character from the movie the incredibles is wearing a black and white suit and a mask .
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Alaska’s production tax was setup in the world where the state was the resource owner. Tax credits for the production tax were offset with revenue from royalties. But marginal barrels are now on fed not state land and our tax code probably needs a rethink under this new regime.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Sorry we missed you last night!
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Not a fan of the Chilli’s Triple Dipper?
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Hear that AKLeg, tax Kevin!
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
When you walked into my office in early February of 2020 telling me to go to the store to stock beer and rice while wearing an N-95, that was a good leading indicator.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Meanwhile, on the west coast:
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Man. That correlation is not great.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
I have a new piece out today in The Conversation about Alaska LNG. I have more to say about this issue, but these are some of my high level thoughts for a national audience.
theconversation.com
Alaska, rich in petroleum, faces an energy shortage
Alaska produces a lot of crude oil, but many of the state’s utilities, businesses and homes run on natural gas, which is in dwindling supply near population centers.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Still need a few more months of hard data before we can get a clear picture of what the macro impacts of the escalated tariffs are.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Seems like there’s a potential solution to this problem that involves creating a new inland CDQ group.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Interesting stats on attendance at United Methodist Churches in Alaska.
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Reposted by Brett Watson
Janelle Shane @janelleshane.com · 13/04/2025
1. LLM-generated code tries to run code from online software packages. Which is normal but 2. The packages don’t exist. Which would normally cause an error but 3. Nefarious people have made malware under the package names that LLMs make up most often. So 4. Now the LLM code points to malware.
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
The strategy board game industry is in a crisis mode. Most game publishers are very small businesses that can't absorb these costs or pass them on. "the collective mood among [board game manufacturers] is almost universally a mixture of despair, frustration, confusion, and anger."
boardgamegeek.com
Tariff Talk from Publishers on Costs, Sales, Conventions, Projections, and More | BoardGameGeek News
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
How achievable are net zero pathways without CCS? Seems like the social gains from marching down the steepest part of the experience curve could be large. If DAC-EOR tech is carbon negative at the margin (given oil demand inelasticity) this seems like a win?
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
@kevinberryecon.bsky.social just showed me we had a 17% increase yoy on declared economics majors last Wednesday. Interesting timing
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Brett Watson @brettjwatson.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Keep thinking about how these signals are paradoxical. The more dire the warnings, the more likely the admin is to reverse course, and the less likely the warnings materialize. Does crying wolf keep it at bay?
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