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Bruno Castanho Silva

@bcastanho.bsky.social
3.8K followers 939 following 328 posts

Ass. Prof. of Methods in Empirical Social Research at FU Berlin and EB member @methodsnet.bsky.social Politics, methods, and occasionally memes bcastanho.github.io

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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Absolutely stoked to have received the Best Paper Prize 2025 from @ecpr-ead.bsky.social at #ecprgc26 🥳 You can read the published paper, co-authored with @bcastanho.bsky.social, in the EJPR: doi.org/10.1017/S147... The pun in the title had to go, unfortunately...
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Vivien Fabry @vivifabrien.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I will present tomorrow at 9:00 on a paper I am working on with @bcastanho.bsky.social focusing on the perception of disabled candidates. If 9:00 is too early for you there is another very interesting panel on disability at 16:15 today! ;)
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Out: far-right voters as "concerned citizens" In: far-right leaders as "athletic, handsome, and fresh faced"
dw.com
Siegmund wants to make Saxony-Anhalt a model for AfD rule
The AfD's lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund aims to turn his small federal state into a blueprint for right-wing extremist politics across Germany.
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
💡Do populism and protest go hand-in-hand? Maybe not. ➡️ @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social & @bcastanho.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social
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Musa Okwonga @okwonga.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Germany, 2026. A far-right politician calling for the mass deportation of 20 million people, to loud applause. A clear call for mass violence.
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Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Our findings reaffirm the importance of disentangling populism from thick ideologies. Populist parties are not fundamentally different in their street mobilization behavior than other parties, they are simply more often radical.
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Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
New article with @bcastanho.bsky.social out now in @ejprjournal.bsky.social !  ✨ We map protest mobilization calls by MPs across Europe to disentangle the role of radicalism and populism in explaining party involvement in protest politics. 🪧 doi.org/10.1017/S147...
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Happy to see this out, fruit of a great collaboration w @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social! Looking at European MPs' Facebook posts from 2018-21 calling for protests, we find that mobilization is better explained as a feature of radical than populist parties
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Musa Okwonga @okwonga.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The editor in chief of The Economist referring here to the AfD’s leader as a “perfectly thoughtful person“ instead of what she truly is - a driver and enabler of German fascism - is a huge part of the problem.
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I guess this citation kills any chance of me entering the US
Screenshot from researchgate showing a new citation to my work coming from an article published in a journal with the acronym JIHAD
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Puzzled English fans wondering why others root against England are overestimating the importance of questionable general English history/politics and really underestimating the importance of questionable **football-related** English history
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Amazing how the English pretend to be all about stiff upper lip and fair play, and are out there flopping like they’re Neymar. Kane was embarrassing in Norway’s first goal, then the other guy falling like a sack of potatoes in the goal that was VAR’d. Pathetic.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
What a world cup of awfully shot penalties
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Sure he's talking about those 90% ball possession 1 shot on goal matches
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
VAR this
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Politische Vierteljahresschrift @pvs-journal.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Looking for speeches from all German state parliaments? @cgnguyen.bsky.social , Eric Beltermann, Sabine Kropp & Antonios Souris have you covered. Introducing the StateParl Corpus. Now open access with PVS: doi.org/10.1007/s11615-025-00643-5
doi.org
Decoding German Politics with StateParl—A Text Corpus of Plenary Protocols in the 16 German Länder Parliaments - Politische Vierteljahresschrift
The availability of large amounts of machine-readable text data has enabled political scientists to explore a variety of novel and innovative research questions. In this context, parliamentary documen...
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Perspectives on Politics @poppublicsphere.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!! It’s Not #Polarization; It’s the #Radicalization of the #Political #Right By @pettertornberg.com doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Don't get me wrong, the FIFA decision was outrageous and it's great the US got their ass handed to them by this mediocre Belgian team, but European fans the last two days here be like...
Meme with Mel Gibson giving notes to actor playing Jesus, characterized and bloodied, with Mel Gibson saying "And FIFA's so corrupt, it's ruining the game just to please Trump" while the bloody Jesus character represents the rest of the world
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Trump has not ruined international football. FIFA has. For decades. Yes, the bluntness of Trump is mindblowing but this is FIFA business as usual. Not only in autocracies. Look at the massive corruption in how Germany became host of the 2006 World Cup. An event we still refer to as Sommermärchen.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Unprecedented* * Except for the precedent from six month ago when FIFA did the same for CR7 and UEFA said nothing
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Anica Bitten @anica.com.br · 30/06/2026
Patrick rezando, legenda: gracias a dios nací en lationamerica
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Probably my most "oh-in-my-days" take is that if me and my friends survived navigating KaZaA and eMule to listen to music at the impressionable ages of 12-13, then teens today a) should survive YouTube content relatively unscathed and b) will most certainly find workarounds for any ban
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
All efficient countries are alike. Every dysfunctional bureaucracy (like these three) is dysfunctional in its own way
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Anita Gohdes @argohdes.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Post-doc position at @scripts-berlin.eu! If you are a survey researcher interested in cross-national research on how people perceive liberalism, democracy etc, take a look! You’ll get to work with 🥳 @swenhutter.bsky.social: www.wzb.eu/en/jobs/post...
wzb.eu
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow (f/m/x) (ID 402)
For the research project “Public Attitudes towards the Liberal Script” (PALS) at the Center for Civil Society Research, in collaboration with other research units and the Cluster of Excellence...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 28/05/2026
TIL heat is really killing a lot of people in Europe. hannahritchie.substack.com/p/heat-guns-...
Heat versus gun deaths in the European Union and the United States. Average annual deaths per 100,000 population, as close to the year 2024 as possible. Heat deaths are based on excess death methodology, not the number recorded on death certificates.

US, heat: 1.94
European Union, guns: 1.24
US, guns: 13.27
European union, heat: 12.57
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Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Many of you have asked me for a full-blown desktop version of SciLove. Here it is! 👇 My favorite part is the redesigned feed: now features a progress bar plus an article queue so you always know what’s next.
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
65.2 🫐 The honest, the efficient, & the trustworthy 🕊️ 🏭️ 🚓 @adinaakbik.bsky.social & Christina L. Toenshoff examine the relationships between national stereotypes and #Policy preference within the EU, uncovering the influence of stereotypes in #PublicOpinion
buff.ly
The honest, the efficient, and the trustworthy: National stereotypes and public support for EU redistribution | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
The honest, the efficient, and the trustworthy: National stereotypes and public support for EU redistribution - Volume 65 Issue 2
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 02/05/2026
I know a lot of you folks just love lavaan, so here’s the lavaan job you’ve all been waiting for!
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Pit Rieger @pitrieger.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
New paper out in the EJPR! Coalition governments delegate international negotiations to single ministers, but their coalition partners are left on the sidelines. I look at when those outsiders use public dissent to constrain ministers.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Here I sit hoping it'll be just another instance of market manipulation and not actual genocide and/or nuclear war
Photo showing the main indexes of US stocks in the red at the moment
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Well here's a case of a foreigner receiving government handouts while the local population struggles
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MethodsNET @methodsnet.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🤖 Create models that fit your research. Join @cklamm.bsky.social at @methodsnet.bsky.social Summer School for "Large Language Models: Tune & Train Your Own Models." Hands-on with HuggingFace, quantization, and custom datasets. Deadline: April 20! 🔗 methodsnet.org/course/d08-l... #MethodsNET #AI
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Cool and fun to use!
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Someone opening a beer bottle with a lighter
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MethodsNET @methodsnet.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
MethodsNET Summer School 2026 at CEU!🎓 Don't miss the opportunity to join our specialized tracks in: • Causal Inference & Mediation • LLM Tuning & Training • Statistics in the Age of AI 🗓️ Deadline: April 20 🔗 Register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... #MethodsNET #AcademicSky #ResearchMethods
docs.google.com
MethodsNET Summer School with CEU 2026 Registration
Important Information Complete in English only. Do not complete in capital letters. The details provided for this registration will be used for all future communication and certificates. If you are no...
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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
People often ask how to get social media and online platforms' data these days after a lot of them shut down academic access This course by Noëlle Lebernegg at the @methodsnet.bsky.social summer school gets you covered 👇 Registrations open methodsnet.org/course/d04-c...
methodsnet.org
D04: Collecting Data from Large Online Platforms with APIs, Webscraping and DSA applications – MethodsNET
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MethodsNET @methodsnet.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
The methodology evolution is coming. On Feb 11th, #MethodsNET opens the Call for Proposals for our next conference. We’re looking for innovative takes on qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods. Check out the conference details here: methodsnet.org/conference/3... #AcademicSky #MethodsNET
methodsnet.org
3rd MethodsNET Conference 2026 – MethodsNET
3rd MethodsNET Conference 2026 The global hub for research methods innovations, excellence and smart use . 28-30 October 2026, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Th
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Feels like half the negative reviews I write these days could be replaced by this figure Srsly people, don't underestimate the importance of framing and convincing your reader that your research is important. That's usually not as self-evident for others as it may be for you
Peter Griffin looking annoyed with a bold print saying "oh my god who the hell cares?"
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Thinking a bit too fast huh
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Happy to be part of this project, and excited for the work ahead!
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Lots of takes these days on how "even after Trump the world will not see the US as a reliable partner anymore" from people who I thought would know that Latin America or the Middle East are part of the world
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Oh so brave to speak out like this, can we please interview him now on something he can actually act on, like idk supporting the use of Russian frozen assets to support Ukraine?
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Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Here's a short write-up of our recently published study: 📰"What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation" TLDR: Most believe taxing the rich brings equality & growth! Elite fears are not shared. www.cambridge.org/core/blog/20...
cambridge.org
What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation « Political Science and International Relations# « Cambridge Core Blog
For decades, political leaders, economists, and business elites have repeated a familiar warning: tax the rich too much, and everyone will suffer. Higher taxes on the wealthy, they argue, might reduce...
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Applies equally well to academia
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Journal of Public Policy @jpublicpolicy.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
A new blog post by @beckerbastian.bsky.social, @bcastanho.bsky.social and Hanna Lierse - t.ly/Cs6xb ! The article, entitled “Taxing your cake and growing it too: public beliefs on the dual benefits of progressive taxation”, is available here: tinyurl.com/2cc7x4jf
t.ly
What People Really Think About Taxing the Rich – the surprising beliefs behind progressive taxation « Political Science and International Relations# « Cambridge Core Blog
For decades, political leaders, economists, and business elites have repeated a familiar warning: tax the rich too much, and everyone will suffer. Higher taxes on the wealthy, they argue, might reduce...
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MethodsNET @methodsnet.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
📅 Tomorrow: Registration opens. Join leading experts for the MethodsNET Summer School with CEU. High-demand courses fill up quickly. Secure your spot in the global research community. #MethodsNET2026 #AcademicSky #Methods
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Oh Mechahitler is getting access to nukes cool cool cool cool cool
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
There's a chance that for the first time ever these two groups largely overlap, no?
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