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Bruno Castanho Silva

@bcastanho.bsky.social
3.8K followers 940 following 329 posts

Ass. Prof. of Methods in Empirical Social Research at FU Berlin and EB member @methodsnet.bsky.social Politics, methods, and occasionally memes bcastanho.github.io

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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Christoph Nguyen @cgnguyen.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Do identities like "not woke" or "not a boomer" bring people together? And if they do, what does that do to democracy? @sabrinajmayer.bsky.social and I explore this question in our new project on negational identities, funded by the Fritz Thyssen Stiftung. www.polsoz.fu-berlin.de/en/polwiss/f...
polsoz.fu-berlin.de
New project:
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The joyful Monday morning of telling my int'l friends that it doesn't matter how bad they think the Brazilian election results were last night, it's actually worse than that
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The problem is that the fine wiggles in politicization imply some kind of measurement. This is not a theoretical graph stating "in general X has a curve like this and Y like this". It looks like an empirical statement that in 2000 there was a peak of politicization. That needs data to back it up
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Absolutely stoked to have received the Best Paper Prize 2025 from @ecpr-ead.bsky.social at #ecprgc26 🥳 You can read the published paper, co-authored with @bcastanho.bsky.social, in the EJPR: doi.org/10.1017/S147... The pun in the title had to go, unfortunately...
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Vivien Fabry @vivifabrien.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I will present tomorrow at 9:00 on a paper I am working on with @bcastanho.bsky.social focusing on the perception of disabled candidates. If 9:00 is too early for you there is another very interesting panel on disability at 16:15 today! ;)
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Out: far-right voters as "concerned citizens" In: far-right leaders as "athletic, handsome, and fresh faced"
dw.com
Siegmund wants to make Saxony-Anhalt a model for AfD rule
The AfD's lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund aims to turn his small federal state into a blueprint for right-wing extremist politics across Germany.
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
💡Do populism and protest go hand-in-hand? Maybe not. ➡️ @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social & @bcastanho.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Musa Okwonga @okwonga.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Germany, 2026. A far-right politician calling for the mass deportation of 20 million people, to loud applause. A clear call for mass violence.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Probably a result of my impressionable-years in following American politics having been the birth of the Tea Party, but it's insane to me that Republicans will likely not bat an eye for the absence of Reagan
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Our findings reaffirm the importance of disentangling populism from thick ideologies. Populist parties are not fundamentally different in their street mobilization behavior than other parties, they are simply more often radical.
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Leonhard Schmidt @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
New article with @bcastanho.bsky.social out now in @ejprjournal.bsky.social !  ✨ We map protest mobilization calls by MPs across Europe to disentangle the role of radicalism and populism in explaining party involvement in protest politics. 🪧 doi.org/10.1017/S147...
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Happy to see this out, fruit of a great collaboration w @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social! Looking at European MPs' Facebook posts from 2018-21 calling for protests, we find that mobilization is better explained as a feature of radical than populist parties
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Musa Okwonga @okwonga.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The editor in chief of The Economist referring here to the AfD’s leader as a “perfectly thoughtful person“ instead of what she truly is - a driver and enabler of German fascism - is a huge part of the problem.
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Any self-respecting fan in the stadium should boo every second past the 15 minutes
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I guess this citation kills any chance of me entering the US
Screenshot from researchgate showing a new citation to my work coming from an article published in a journal with the acronym JIHAD
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
For sure there's some bias on what people see and want to see. My take is mostly from observing Brazilian and south American fans and commentary, and my impression from them is that it has very little to do with colonialism itself, since that's a constant
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Might be an obnoxious minority, but indeed they're loud and unfortunately that's what travels
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
That goal is not even the first thing that comes to mind if you're south American. I'm not getting into the merit, but there's a general narrative that that world cup was setup with outside influence for England to win
theguardian.com
Why not everyone remembers the 1966 World Cup as fondly as England | Simon Burnton
Fifty years ago England won the World Cup gloriously at home, right? Not according to many teams who branded the tournament ‘a conspiracy against Latin America’ blighted by poor refereeing
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Very different scales. What there is comparable to the general belief of England stealing their way to a single WC title and then banging on about it nonstop for sixty years?
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Puzzled English fans wondering why others root against England are overestimating the importance of questionable general English history/politics and really underestimating the importance of questionable **football-related** English history
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Amazing how the English pretend to be all about stiff upper lip and fair play, and are out there flopping like they’re Neymar. Kane was embarrassing in Norway’s first goal, then the other guy falling like a sack of potatoes in the goal that was VAR’d. Pathetic.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Do they still have fixed effects and Diff-in-Diff, but correcting for spider density?
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Omg my only answers are José Luís Peixoto and... JK Rowling. I really need to pump up those numbers for the crowd I'm sitting at 3 or 4 read
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
"The man who would change Russia" but thinks that change doesn't even require Putin to leave power... like what?
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
A dissident Russian oligarch, the adult-in-the-room in Trump's administration, and the English men's team that will definitely bring it home this time walk into a bar
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
One life, he got to do what he should
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
What a world cup of awfully shot penalties
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Sure he's talking about those 90% ball possession 1 shot on goal matches
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
But I think in the future, people doing data analysis will need a knowledge of coding that is equivalent to what people today doing it have of how to estimate regression parameters by hand. Which is to say, most only know the concepts but not the actual workings and that's fine
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
I think it still makes sense to know the basics at least to know what to prompt in order to get what you need, and to judge if the output makes sense (even for data wrangling), so I'd say anyone doing data analysis needs to have a grasp of coding.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
VAR this
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Politische Vierteljahresschrift @pvs-journal.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Looking for speeches from all German state parliaments? @cgnguyen.bsky.social , Eric Beltermann, Sabine Kropp & Antonios Souris have you covered. Introducing the StateParl Corpus. Now open access with PVS: doi.org/10.1007/s11615-025-00643-5
doi.org
Decoding German Politics with StateParl—A Text Corpus of Plenary Protocols in the 16 German Länder Parliaments - Politische Vierteljahresschrift
The availability of large amounts of machine-readable text data has enabled political scientists to explore a variety of novel and innovative research questions. In this context, parliamentary documen...
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Perspectives on Politics @poppublicsphere.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!! It’s Not #Polarization; It’s the #Radicalization of the #Political #Right By @pettertornberg.com doi.org/10.1017/S153...
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Don't get me wrong, the FIFA decision was outrageous and it's great the US got their ass handed to them by this mediocre Belgian team, but European fans the last two days here be like...
Meme with Mel Gibson giving notes to actor playing Jesus, characterized and bloodied, with Mel Gibson saying "And FIFA's so corrupt, it's ruining the game just to please Trump" while the bloody Jesus character represents the rest of the world
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
On the stands, through their AC spacesuits, half of Brazil fans chant for the mummy of our boy Neymar to come in and save the day
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Reposted by Bruno Castanho Silva
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Trump has not ruined international football. FIFA has. For decades. Yes, the bluntness of Trump is mindblowing but this is FIFA business as usual. Not only in autocracies. Look at the massive corruption in how Germany became host of the 2006 World Cup. An event we still refer to as Sommermärchen.
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Unprecedented* * Except for the precedent from six month ago when FIFA did the same for CR7 and UEFA said nothing
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Thought the same. Clear dive
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Anica Bitten @anica.com.br · 30/06/2026
Patrick rezando, legenda: gracias a dios nací en lationamerica
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Sei não se não era caô pra torcida não encher. Se vai pra prorrogação ia "segurar pros pênaltis"
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Evergreen this year
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Same commentators who'll concede Vini Jr is talented but they don't like him because of his ahm... attitude?
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Congrats!
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Probably my most "oh-in-my-days" take is that if me and my friends survived navigating KaZaA and eMule to listen to music at the impressionable ages of 12-13, then teens today a) should survive YouTube content relatively unscathed and b) will most certainly find workarounds for any ban
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
A couple years ago I went to Paris and had the same feeling. Wasn't sure if the stereotype changed or I just had lived so long in Germany by then that Parisians felt incredibly friendly by comparison
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Bruno Castanho Silva @bcastanho.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
All efficient countries are alike. Every dysfunctional bureaucracy (like these three) is dysfunctional in its own way
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Anita Gohdes @argohdes.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Post-doc position at @scripts-berlin.eu! If you are a survey researcher interested in cross-national research on how people perceive liberalism, democracy etc, take a look! You’ll get to work with 🥳 @swenhutter.bsky.social: www.wzb.eu/en/jobs/post...
wzb.eu
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow (f/m/x) (ID 402)
For the research project “Public Attitudes towards the Liberal Script” (PALS) at the Center for Civil Society Research, in collaboration with other research units and the Cluster of Excellence...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 28/05/2026
TIL heat is really killing a lot of people in Europe. hannahritchie.substack.com/p/heat-guns-...
Heat versus gun deaths in the European Union and the United States. Average annual deaths per 100,000 population, as close to the year 2024 as possible. Heat deaths are based on excess death methodology, not the number recorded on death certificates.

US, heat: 1.94
European Union, guns: 1.24
US, guns: 13.27
European union, heat: 12.57
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Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Many of you have asked me for a full-blown desktop version of SciLove. Here it is! 👇 My favorite part is the redesigned feed: now features a progress bar plus an article queue so you always know what’s next.
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