iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Global total estimated fire emissions were the second-lowest in the 24-year CAMS dataset for September 2026. However, Indonesia recorded its third-highest September monthly total estimated emissions, contributing to Asia having the highest estimated fire emissions of any continent. ⬇️ @ecmwf.int

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.

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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

🌫️ Air pollution knows no borders. In 2026 so far, 40% of global population was exposed to harmful ozone pollution, & wildfire smoke & desert dust affected regional and hemispheric air quality. 🔗 Explore the full story in CAMS #AtmosphereWatch: atmosphere.copernicus.eu/air-quality/... @ecmwf.int

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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The CAMS Atmosphere Watch explores the air we share: ozone, the invisible pollutant that crosses borders; wildfire smoke that can turn local disasters into continental air pollution episodes; and dust, the global traveller. Discover the data behind it: atmosphere.copernicus.eu/atmosphere-w...

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Evolution of the 2026 ozone hole depth and size, and the total ozone loss compared to recent years until today

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The 2026 ozone hole has reached its maximum size and depth in this season www.temis.nl/protocols/o3...

Maximum size and depth of the 2026 ozone hole

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Significant less NOx emissions and therefore much smaller NO2 concentrations in the atmosphere through technical developments and decades of environmental policies. Coming years EV will help to reduce NO2 further in The Netherlands.

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Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Array @globaloceanbgc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

NSF has funded over 80% of the world's BGC-Argo floats via GO-BGC, which ends in October 2026, so the global array will start shrinking. NSF is asking US researchers to weigh in on future ocean observing priorities: www.go-bgc.org/nsf/nsf-requ...

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Rising temperatures, stagnant atmospheric conditions and intense solar radiation promote ground-level ozone formation, as shown by recent studies during heatwaves in the south-eastern USA, Europe and China. wmo.int/media/news/w...

wmo.int

WMO bulletin shows air quality and climate interlinkages

An increase in pollution from wildfires and heatwaves risks undermining international efforts to improve air quality and protect human and ecosystem health, according to a new report from the World Me...

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Ayana Elizabeth Johnson @ayanaeliza.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Could have used AI to do this for me. But so glad I grappled with this 140+ pg PDF unassisted. Gratifying use of 5 hours to take a break from the frenzy to think (and feel!) deeply what all this means. Shoutout to book reports! ayanaelizabeth.substack.com/p/i-read-the...

ayanaelizabeth.substack.com

I read the new UN climate report so you don't have to.

TL;DR they are calling for radical transformation of our society.

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Climate.us @climate.us · 09/09/2026

Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Technical users of KNMI weather data need to take action before the end of 2026. Make use of API-key

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Marco Langbroek @marcolangbroek.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

1/2 The Anak #Krakatau volcano in Indonesia showing a strong #eruption this morning, in a Sentinel 2C #satellite image from 2:55 UTC (5 Sept 2026).

Eruptive ash clouds and discoloured water in a Sentinel 2C satellite image from 2:55 UTC (5 Sept 2026).
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data. Image processing Marco Langbroek

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Mark Parrington @mparrington.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

The #Krakatau 🌋sulphur dioxide plume in the #CopernicusAtmosphere column integrated volcanic SO2 analysis, assimilating GOME-2, TROPOMI & IASI (+layer height) 🛰️ observations, valid for 6 Sept 00UTC. Data access➡️ ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/datasets/cam... @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int

Global map, centred on western Indonesia, showing the extent of the plume of column integrated mass density of volcanic SO2 as it extends from the Anak Krakatau volcano out to the Indian Ocean in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service analysis valid for 00 UTC on 6 September.

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Changing building regulations can”t keep up with climate change and associated summer heat in The Netherlands. E.g outdoor blinds or just keeping sunshine out is not obliged in the building of new appartments.

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Later today is the UN General Assembly is holding its final 114th Plenary Meeting of the 80th Session. [1] (webtv.un.org/en/schedule)... Vote: During this wrap-up plenary meeting, member states are voting on draft resolution A/80/L.104 (known as the "#CorrectTheMap" initiative).

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Summer 2003 visually compared with Summer 2026

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Michiel van Weele @michielvanweele.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Review of methods for assessing the climate impacts of aviation technologies and the resulting best practices link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

CO2equivalent over CO2 baseline climate impact for aviation

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Optimist: The cup is half full Pessimist: The cup is half empty Climate model scientist: A FULL CUP IS NOT CALCULATED, EITHER PRECIPATION IS TOO SMALL OR EVAPORATION IS TOO HIGH, AND VERY LIKELY BOTH (mid-scenario; medium confidence)

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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 20/08/2026

Wednesday El Niño update - Sea surface temperatures of course remain at record high levels in Niño3.4. While there has been little change in the anomaly field over the last week, we continue to see an exceptional eastern shift of the warm pool & another absurd westerly wind burst. Data: OISSTv2.1 🌊

Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1.

Map of August 18, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.

Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from August 11, 2026 to August 18, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1

Graphic showing the 2-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from August 4, 2026 to August 18, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

2/2 How will this El Niño unfold? Forecasters expect further, exceptional intensification. NOAA assigns roughly an 81% chance of very strong conditions during Oct–Dec 2026 and a 63% chance of a “super” El Niño peaking around Nov 2026 to Jan 2027. NOAA gives a 97% chance it persists till early spring

Daily Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly for every year since 1982 (gray), with 2026 in red and the strong 1997 and 2015 El Niño development years highlighted. Anomalies are measured against each year’s own 30-year climatology, which removes the long-term warming trend. As of early August, 2026 sits above all prior years for the date. Source: Climate Dashboard analysis of NOAA OISSTv2.1 (Niño 3.4 box, 5°S–5°N, 170°–120°W).

The El Niño that emerged in the spring has continued to strengthen rapidly. As of early August 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect, and the daily Niño 3.4 index has climbed to about +2.7 °C measured against its own era’s climatology — the trend-removed basis shown in the figure below, equivalent to roughly +2.8 °C on the conventional fixed baseline, or about +2.2 °C on the background-adjusted relative index — already well into very strong or “super” territory. No El Niño in the modern record has run this warm this early in its development: measured against each year’s own climatology, 2026 is now tracking above even the great 1997 and 2015 events at the same point in the year. The warming is being reinforced by physical ocean processes, including downwelling Kelvin waves and a large subsurface warm pool in the equatorial Pacific.

https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12122618/download-1024x666.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

2026 Outlook

With seven months of data in hand, the outlook for the 2026 annual average has shifted decisively upward. Where a month ago a record year looked unlikely, the strengthening El Niño and July’s move above 1.5 °C have flipped the balance: we now calculate roughly a 69% chance that 2026 will become the warmest year on record, up from 12% in the June update. The forecast model, which had been more skeptical of the El Niño’s near-term impact than the ENSO ensembles, has now come into closer agreement with them. The most likely alternative is a 2nd-place finish (about 30%). We currently estimate a near-certain (~99%) chance that the 2026 annual average will exceed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850–1900 average, with a likely annual range of roughly 1.52–1.65 °C. As always, because El Niño’s global impact lags its Pacific peak, an even larger warming influence — and a strong chance of a further record — is expected in 2027.

Remarkably, there is likely to be a disconnect in 2026 between record warmth in the ocean and less-than-record warmth on land. On land, we estimate a < 1% chance of record warmth in 2026, with a 47% chance of 2nd place finish behind 2024. Year-to-date the land average has been only the 4th warmest on record. While the land average is near certain to finish in the top 5 warmest, the relatively cool conditions on land early in 2026 have been holding the average back, and the expected effects of El Niño do not appear to be sufficient to create a record annual-average on land in 2026.

https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12121902/Annual_time_series_combined-1024x576.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

Same as the above image but Niño 3.4 region temperatures have been reduced by the average temperature of the tropical oceans (20° S – 20° N) to create the so-called reduced Oceanic Niño Index (rONI).

Even when correcting for the average rate of warming of the tropical oceans, as shown below, the current El Niño conditions appear unprecedented for July within the satellite era.

https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12122846/newplot-4-1024x436.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

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Rudy Sovinee @rudysovinee.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Berkeley Earth July Temperature Report There are too many unique graphs and comments. I encourage people to read it directly: berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-te... I'm highlighting a few graphics here, with details in the ALT I note: The USA had record hot month on average. Not so for many locations 1/2

♦ July 2026 was nominally the 2nd warmest July on record, with a global average of 1.56 ± 0.09 °C (2.80 ± 0.15 °F) above the 1850–1900 average — the first month of 2026 to exceed 1.5 °C — behind only July 2023 and effectively tied with July 2024.
♦ Land temperatures averaged 2.03 ± 0.20 °C (3.66 ± 0.35 °F) above the 1850–1900 average, nominally the 3rd warmest July for terrestrial regions.
♦ Ocean temperatures were 1.25 ± 0.09 °C (2.25 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850–1900 average, nominally the 2nd warmest July on record for ocean surfaces.
♦ Roughly 8.5% of Earth’s surface experienced its warmest July on record (6.0% of land and 9.8% of ocean surfaces).
♦ The 2026 outlook has shifted decisively: 2026 now has roughly a 69% chance of becoming the warmest year on record, up from 12% a month ago, and a near-certain (~99%) chance of exceeding 1.5 °C.
Spatial Variation

In July 2026, warmer-than-average temperatures covered nearly the entire globe. They were especially pronounced across the central and eastern tropical Pacific — where the developing El Niño is now unmistakable — as well as North America, the North Atlantic, Western and Southern Europe and the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Sahara, Central Asia, Siberia, and East Asia. The most striking cool anomaly was near Antarctica, with only a few small cool patches elsewhere.
July 2026 surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1951–1980 average. The broad warm tongue across the equatorial Pacific reflects the strengthening El Niño. Gray areas (notably parts of central Africa) indicate regions with insufficient data this month.
https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12120948/Month_anomaly_map-1024x572.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

$How July 2026 ranked locally against all Julys since 1850. Dark red indicates a local record warm July; dark blue a local record cold July. Roughly 8.5% of Earth’s surface experienced its locally warmest July on record (about 6.0% of land and 9.8% of ocean surfaces) — a larger fraction than in June, consistent with the building El Niño. Record warmth was concentrated across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the Mediterranean and Southern Europe, North Africa and the Sahara, western Russia and Central Asia, Siberia, eastern China, and portions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Near record cold for July was observed in parts of Antarctica. https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12121027/Month_rank_map-1024x576.png https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/$

July average temperatures across the contiguous USA (i.e. lower 48 states) from both Berkeley Earth and NOAA.

It is particularly noteworthy that July 2026 became the warmest month (of any kind) for the contiguous USA (i.e. lower 48 states) in both the Berkeley Earth and NOAA datasets. The national average set in 1936, during the height of the Dust Bowl, has long stood as NOAA’s all-time warmest monthly average, and many local records still date from that period. Berkeley Earth already had a slightly different ranking with July 2012 warmer than July 1936, but in both datasets July 2026 is now the warmest monthly-average for the contiguous USA.

https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/13131224/CONUS-July-2026-1024x576.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

How the August 2025 to July 2026 period ranked locally against similar 12-month periods since 1850.
It is in the duration of 12 months that Greenland, the Western USA, the UK, EU and a swath of Asia set records for ongoing heating.

https://berkeley-earth-wp-offload.storage.googleapis.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/12121336/12month_rank_map-1024x576.png

https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-temperature-update/

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Alan @gammacounter.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

UV flashlight even in subdued daylight shows the fluorescence of chlorophyll. Here, using a 365 nm filtered LED light, the chlorophyll molecule absorbs the UV, gets excited, and the. as it goes back to ground state it emits a longer wavelength red or reddish purple photon ~ 650–740 nm.

Photo of LED UV light with three bulbs, creating a slightly triangular shape on a green leaf. It is daylight, most of the leaf is green, except where the UV light has shined on the leaf, and it creates a red fluorescence.

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Etna activity over the last couple of days producing SO2 clouds. Not very high it seems

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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

In terms of temperature anomaly for the last three months (MJJ 2026 period), France is the most anomalous country in the world with +2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average.

Map showing 2-m temperature anomaly for May 2026 to Jul 2026 from ERA5 reanalysis. France and the whole western Europe is dark red, indicating much warmer than normal conditions.

Bar diagram showing the top 10 and bottom 10 countries in terms of temperature anomalies from normal. France ranks the first warmest.

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

We wrote a review paper about bubbles in the ocean, and then the lead author wrote a summary about the paper. Give it a read if you want to know how bubbles affect the exchange of gases between the atmosphere and the ocean. 🌊🧪

eos.org

How Bubbles Reshape Air-Sea Gas Exchange - Eos

Bubbles produced by breaking waves provide an important but often overlooked pathway for exchanging carbon dioxide, oxygen, and other gases between the ocean and atmosphere.

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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 09/08/2026

Shifting atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe since the 1980s have been the major cause of increasingly severe droughts on the continent, according to a study in Nature Geoscience. go.nature.com/4x1kDPo 🌎🧪

This is figure 3, which shows summertime WRs with significant changes in their occurrence and their imprint on European hydroclimate.

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TROPOMI SO2 @tropomiso2.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

On 2026-08-08 #TROPOMI has detected an enhanced SO2 signal of 2.92DU at a distance of 22.1km to #MaunaLoa. Other nearby sources: #Kilauea. #DLR_inpuls #S5p #Sentinel5p #TROPOMI #SO2LH

TROPOMI SO2 detection in the vicinity of MaunaLoa

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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Late last month, wildfires broke out in southwestern France near the city of Bordeaux. Earlier today, satellite imagery was able to capture a clear view of the burn scars that were left behind by the flames.

Details: This satellite imagery contains the day land cloud product from the NOAA-20 weather satellite. It was captured at 12:52 UTC on 2026-08-07.

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Michiel van Weele @michielvanweele.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Methane growth is slowing down

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Johanns (Alpen) weer @johannsalpenweer.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

De neerslag /verdeling voor de komende 10 dagen adhv de nieuwste GFS OPER #droogte

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Interesting work explaining less than 10% of the present-day rise in methane. Anthropogenic emission increase dominates for methane by large margin

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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

15 March 2027 (submission) 15 October 2027 (acceptance) Please share the preprints with us lead authors so we can include them already for the Second Order Draft

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Atmospheric Sciences @atmsciences.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

‘We demonstrate that the cascading chain of precipitation–wetland inundation–vegetation succession–CH4 emissions drives emission seasonality, characterized by a 3-month lag from precipitation to wetland inundation and a subsequent 4-month lag from inundation to peak emissions.’

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The latest RONI (Relative Oceanic Niño Index) value from May-Jun-Jul is +1.00°C, just barely into "moderate" #ElNiño territory... and rapidly on its way up. The previously-used metric, ONI, is at +1.39°C. RONI: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/roni/ ONI: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/oni/

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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Good article about potential effects of El Niño and climate change on rice production this year, quoting my colleague Sampriti Baruah. Rice is a staple for billions of people. Farmers are adapting, but the climate is changing.

grist.org

Why rice crops could be in for a weird year

Researchers explain how El Niño and global warming are combining to create "the haves and the have-nots."

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