iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Environmental Psychology Research Group @eprg-surrey.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Birdsong helps us feel calmer and more restored, but traffic noise may be drowning out those benefits. 🐦 Our latest research found that even low levels of traffic noise can undermine the wellbeing gains people get from listening to nature's sounds. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

theguardian.com

Mood-boosting benefits of birdsong drowned out by traffic noise, study finds

Even low levels of traffic noise can negate the benefits of listening to natural sounds, researchers say

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Visual sensory info, like VR images, has previously been shown to change valuations in DCEs, we have now extended that to auditory information. Summary: presenting sensory information, alongside textual info, in a DCE can make a big difference in how non-market goods are valued.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

When we examined possible mechanisms with post-treatment questions we found treated respondents said costs were less important, quality was more important, and they placed themselves as more connected to nature on a visual scale question.

Table titled “Mechanism regression results” showing OLS estimates of treatment effects on six mechanism outcomes. Columns report the outcome, control mean, treatment effect, robust standard error, t-statistic, p-value, and sample size. The treatment significantly increases Self–Nature connection by 0.220 points on a 1–7 scale, increases the stated importance of habitat quality by 0.066, and decreases the stated importance of cost by 0.069. Effects on the importance of habitat quantity, habitat type, and credibility are not statistically significant. Each regression has N = 1,094. Notes state that robust standard errors are in parentheses and significance stars indicate p < 0.01, p < 0.05, and p < 0.10.

Diagram showing seven versions of the Inclusion of Nature in Self scale. Each option contains two circles: a dotted circle labelled “me” and a solid circle labelled “nature.” The overlap between the two circles increases from left to right and top to bottom. In option A the circles are separate and do not overlap. In options B to F the circles overlap progressively more. In option G the two circles almost completely overlap, indicating the strongest perceived connection between self and nature.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

(note we did not observe if respondents sat and listened to sound clips to our estimand is an intention to treat effect) Treatment group had a higher willingness to pay for improvements in bird habitat quantity and quality. This was mostly driven by less weight on costs.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Both groups saw the same choice cards, but treatment group also had bird vocalisation sound clips, generated from real UK bird populations and recordings. They could compare the sounds betwe

Screenshot of a discrete choice experiment survey task asking respondents which option they prefer. A table compares an “Alternative” option with the “Current Situation.” Both options are broadleaved woodland habitat. The alternative has a medium number of bird species, shown with four bird icons, while the current situation has a low number, shown with two bird icons. Both options have baseline bird habitat size, described as an average of 213 km² per county and shown with four tree icons. The alternative requires a £200 donation, while the current situation costs £0. Radio buttons below allow the respondent to choose either the alternative or the current situation.

Screenshot of a discrete choice experiment survey task asking respondents which option they prefer. The instructions say to listen to the sound clip above each option before choosing. A table compares an “Alternative” option with the “Current Situation.” Both options are broadleaved woodland habitat. Each has an embedded 25-second audio player for “Sound of Habitat.” The alternative has a medium number of bird species, shown with four bird icons, while the current situation has a low number, shown with two bird icons. Both options have baseline habitat size, described as an average of 213 km² per county and shown with four tree icons. The alternative requires a £200 donation, while the current situation costs £0. Radio buttons below allow the respondent to choose either the alternative or the current situation.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

New paper: Discrete Choice Experiments are often used to value non-market goods. We show that auditory information, (birdsong), alongside standard text info, can make a big difference in how much people value such goods, in this case bird habitats. Link here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Abstract
We present the first estimate of the causal effect of auditory sensation on willingness to pay and the first estimate of the marginal value of bird song, using constructed soundscapes. We compare willingness to pay values for increases in bird wildlife habitat quality and quantity between samples where respondents are played recordings of soundscapes compared to respondents who do not get to listen to these simulated soundscapes. Willingness to pay for habitat quality enhancements were found to be significantly larger in the treated “with soundscapes” sample, mainly due to treatment reducing cost sensitivity. Methodologically, this paper reports on the use of simulated soundscapes in choice experiments as a means of increasing the information respondents have before making their choices.

Figure showing pooled mixed logit coefficient estimates for the full sample, taste-only specification, by group. Estimates are shown separately for ASC, cost, quality, and quantity attributes, with orange dashed confidence intervals for the control group and blue solid confidence intervals for the treatment group. The cost coefficient is negative for both groups and significantly more negative in the control group. Quality coefficients are positive for both groups and larger in the treatment group. Quantity coefficients are positive for both groups, with wide confidence intervals, especially for the treatment group. Asterisks indicate statistically significant group differences for ASC, cost, and quality.

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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

This 1952 memo from the Pentagon UFO files is superb There is no point preparing for aliens ‘because no one of consequence is going to take this rubbish seriously unless it happens. At that point, our policy will be determined in the traditional manner of grand panic.’ 🤣 www.war.gov/medialink/uf...

There likely is nothing to be done at the moment to prepare for these possibilities (the only body of writing on the subject available in an emergency is science fiction), because no one of consequence is going to take this rubbish seriously unless it happens. At that point, our policy will be determined in the traditional manner of grand panic.

Maxwell W. Hunter, II
Member, Professional Staff

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 22/07/2025

Replication Crisis xkcd.com/3117/

4-panel comic. (1) [Person 1 with ponytail flanked by person with short hair and another person speaking into microphone at podium] PERSON 1: In the early 2010s, researchers found that many major scientific results couldn’t be reproduced. (2) PERSON 1: Over a decade into the replication crisis, we wanted to see if today’s studies have become more robust. (3) PERSON 1: Unfortunately, our replication analysis has found exactly the same problems that those 2010s researchers did. (4) [newspaper with image of speakers from previous panels] Headline: Replication Crisis Solved

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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

I should say: cutting US funding for Gavi is a tragically misguided decision that can and should be reversed.

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Dr Melissa Marselle @melissamarselle.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

🚗 Noise pollution also drowns out the sounds of nature🚐 Our research shows that traffic noise reduces the calming, restorative power of birdsong 🐤 w/ @konraduebel.bsky.social, @simon-butler.bsky.social, @anthonyhigney.bsky.social, Nick Hanley & Eleanor Ratcliffe 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Hector Rufrancos @rufrancos.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

🚨 Thrilled to announce 4th Annual SGPE Summer School 🎓 One-day masterclass on causal inference 📚 Topics: SCM, matrix completion, partial ID 🗓️ 5 June | 📍Stirling, UK | 💻 Dr Anthony Higney (Glasgow) 🎟️ £50 PhDs / £100 staff Lunch & dinner included! Sign up:bit.ly/SGPE2025SS All welcome!

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Why is there such a difference in loneliness by gender for teenagers? who.int/europe/publica…

The image shows data from a WHO report on adolescent mental health, focusing on loneliness among 11-, 13-, and 15-year-olds across 44 countries. It highlights that 16% of adolescents report feeling lonely most of the time or always, with rates nearly doubling from age 11 to 15. Girls consistently report higher levels than boys. A heatmap table shows the prevalence by age, gender, and country, with darker shades indicating higher rates. Notably high rates among 15-year-old girls include the UK (40%), Belgium (French, 37%), Finland (26%), and Germany (32%), with much lower rates for boys. The report also notes that loneliness is more common among adolescents from low-affluence families.

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Enigma8750 @enigma8750.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

James Webb Satellite took a fantastic shot of the Planet Saturn with it's Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). This is just an Amazing shot that shows the planet and the rings in brilliant detail.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Paper finds heat pump adoption in UK led to 70% less carbon usage and 40% less energy. www.nber.org/202502/diges...

The figure is a line graph titled **"Heat Pump Adoption and Weekly Energy Consumption, Great Britain."**

- **Y-axis:** "Change in weekly consumption, kWh," ranging from -350 to 150 in increments of 50.
- **X-axis:** "Weeks since adoption," ranging from -50 to 90, with a vertical dashed line at week 0 marking the **"Week of heat pump adoption."**

The graph displays two lines with confidence intervals (shaded areas):
- **Blue line ("Electricity")**: Starts near zero before adoption, then jumps to approximately +50 kWh after adoption and gradually increases over time.
- **Red line ("Gas")**: Starts near zero before adoption, then drops sharply to around -200 kWh after adoption. It shows seasonal variation afterward, with consumption dropping as low as -250 kWh around week 70.

**Source:** Researchers' calculations using data from Octopus Energy.

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Ulla Rajala @ullamr.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

My favourite Minoan fresco from Akrotiri, showing boats arriving to the harbour. A detail. #FrescoFriday

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

I've read a couple of papers on external validity where they define it in a way that is much too restricted in my view. Doesn't sit right.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

What sort of information? Anything: magnitude, sign, variation, heterogeneity (maybe a drug has more of an effect on young than old e.g.)

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

How do you evaluate that? The same way you evaluate any forecast.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Workshopping here: if an estimate contains information about an ex-ante unobserved treatment then it has some degree of external validity for that treatment.

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

We should at a minimum do what Nature does, in which the referee comments and author responses are published along with the paper. Allows the paper itself to be an authoritative artifact while lifting the curtain on the debate that led its creation. (quoting @dholtz.bsky.social ) 4/

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John A. List @johnlist.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Some hope for first gens after all! Fabulous new study notes: "academics from poorer backgrounds introduce more novel scientific concepts but are less likely to receive recognition." This is good, not bad, news. Our different view on life is our super power to make change! www.nber.org/papers/w33289

nber.org

Climbing the Ivory Tower: How Socio-Economic Background Shapes Academia

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

History of Parliament @histparl.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

According to some of the records in the archive, Santa Claus himself sat in Parliament in the 15th century... But was he really in Westminster when he should have been at the North Pole? #Christmas Below, Dr Hannes Kleineke explores the mystery of 'Nicholas Christmas'

buff.ly

Medieval MP of the Month: Santa Claus in Parliament - The History of Parliament

Here's a seasonal offering from Hannes Kleineke of the House of Commons 1422-1504 Section for our Medieval MP of Month...

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Reposted by AnthonyHigney

Peter Campbell @petercampbell.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Take a look at artifact. This inscription is ostensibly part of a large stele which has evidently been broken into fragments and we are seeing one (middle) section. All the edges are broken and unfinished. Here is the problem - if this was a broken stele, some letters would be fragmentary.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Reading this paper now. Interesting but I don't quite agree with his take on "true" p-values. Will post about it next week. arxiv.org/abs/1603.07532

We present the expected values from p-value hacking as a choice of the minimum p-value among m independents tests, which can be considerably lower than the "true" p-value, even with a single trial, owing to the extreme skewness of the meta-distribution.
We first present an exact probability distribution (meta-distribution) for p-values across ensembles of statistically identical phenomena. We derive the distribution for small samples 2<n≤n∗≈30 as well as the limiting one as the sample size n becomes large. We also look at the properties of the "power" of a test through the distribution of its inverse for a given p-value and parametrization.
The formulas allow the investigation of the stability of the reproduction of results and "p-hacking" and other aspects of meta-analysis.
P-values are shown to be extremely skewed and volatile, regardless of the sample size n, and vary greatly across repetitions of exactly same protocols under identical stochastic copies of the phenomenon; such volatility makes the minimum p value diverge significantly from the "true" one. Setting the power is shown to offer little remedy unless sample size is increased markedly or the p-value is lowered by at least one order of magnitude.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Read the study yourself. t.co/BoS1kMsYlg

Abstract
Does lead pollution increase crime? We perform the first meta-analysis of the effect of lead on crime, pooling 542 estimates from 24 studies. The effect of lead is overstated in the literature due to publication bias. Our main estimates of the mean effect sizes are a partial correlation of 0.16, and an elasticity of 0.09. Our estimates suggest the abatement of lead pollution may be responsible for 7–28% of the fall in homicide in the US. Given the historically higher urban lead levels, reduced lead pollution accounted for 6–20% of the convergence in US urban and rural crime rates. Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century. Additional explanations are needed.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

They also cut the bottom off that figure.

Funnel plot with elasticity effect size on x axis and precision (1/se) on y. Shows long right tail and smaller left tail at low precision. Clear positive and significant effect towards top of funnel.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

This person is using my study/chart in a misleading way on twitter. There is a correlation here between the SE and effect size that is picked up by pub bias methods. Partly this is due to underlying study characteristics. Adjust for this and we find there is pub bias, but lead does cause crime.

Screenshot of twitter account Cremieux. Basically says lead has no effect on crime citing my meta-analysis. Inlcudes funnel plot with partial correlations on the x axis and precision (1/se) on y axis). More precise effects centered around zero PCC.

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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

I haven't fully read this piece by @jacklandry.bsky.social yet but according to his meta-analysis of only the recent spat of GI pilots, the income elasticity of labor supply on the intensive margin is...0.16. Which is broadly consistent with the literature! jainfamilyinstitute.org/guaranteed-i...

jainfamilyinstitute.org

Guaranteed Income In The Wild: Summarizing Evidence From Pilot Studies and Implications for Policy - Jain Family Institute

How to make sense of competing claims about guaranteed income?

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Elisabeth Bik @elisabethbik.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

This fearless science sleuth risked her career to expose publication fraud Anna Abalkina @abalkina.bsky.social is part of Nature’s 10, a list of people who shaped science in 2024. Holly Else reports at Nature. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.com

This fearless science sleuth risked her career to expose publication fraud

Anna Abalkina is part of Nature’s 10, a list of people who shaped science in 2024.

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Jack Wilkinson @jdwilko.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Funding available to do a PhD on statistical methods for assessing the integrity of RCTs, based in Aberdeen, with Alison Avenell, myself, Graeme MacLennan and Mark Bolland. Competitive process, funded by MRC Trials Methodology Research Partnership: www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

findaphd.com

Investigating statistical methods to assess the conduct and integrity of clinical trials at University of Aberdeen on FindAPhD.com

PhD Project - Investigating statistical methods to assess the conduct and integrity of clinical trials at University of Aberdeen , listed on FindAPhD.com

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

I also have a brief discussion of how you need to meet the assumption of exchangeability at least in meta-analysis. Happy to hear if I am wrong about anything. Only way to learn.

The authors and others have argued that this shows if effects are heterogeneous, and researchers have a good idea of the effect size ex-ante, and therefore efficiently select sample sizes to all have, for example, 80% power, there will be a correlation between the errors and the effects. This is true but would mean all the studies are estimating effects that are not only known to be different but we know how they are different. We can rank the effects. Should they be doing that? No! In general, in a (random effects) meta-analysis, we assume each study is estimating a different effect and estimate the average of the effects, but the differences are assumed to be random, drawn from a common underlying distribution.
When this is not the case, they are not i.i.d, nor exchangeable. What that means is any inference we do from this model will be off. This is important because when we test for publication bias, we are not just describing the data, we are doing inference.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

For example, I think they combine incommensurable effects.

“…[E]ach of these data sets comprises studies on disparate processes, using radically different procedures and designs. Few meta-analysts would be interested in pooling such diverse effects.”

In other words, they are combining studies that are looking at completely different things! For me, this is fatal for the empirical part of the paper. This is “combining incommensurable results” and I cannot see any good reason for doing so. For example, they are combining a replication of how much people agree “the earth is flat” with a replication of the effect of less caveolin-1 in mice!

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

I have started writing about papers as I read them to help remember them, but in case others are interested I am also putting them on my site. First one is a working paper criticising publication bias detection. I think their critique is not quite right. anthonychigney.github.io/home/blog/Tr...

anthonychigney.github.io

How Much Should We Trust Publication Bias Detection Techniques?

Publication bias occurs when the distribution of observed effects differs from the distribution of all such effects. Usually, this means there is some filter based on the magnitude or direction of the...

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

My default explanation for sudden changes in a time series is change in measurement. So glad to see another example, sent to me by a colleague who shares my cynicism. Short, clear explanation of Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry. Which is important to the story.

eryney.substack.com

Maybe it's just YOUR testosterone that's low

How the measurement tools have led us to falsely believe our T is low

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Moudhy Al-Rashid (she/her) @moudhy.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

Around 1800 BCE, a businesswoman named Taram-Kubi received 20 shekels of fine gold, presumably as payment for textiles she wove. She lived in Assur, capital of the Assyrian empire, and sent her textiles to far-flung Anatolia for her husband to sell them cdli.mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de/artifacts/28...

Beige-coloured cuneiform tablet with slightly rounded edges. It has rulings with cuneiform characters.

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Max Roser @maxroser.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

We've just made it much easier to reuse the data on Our World in Data. Here is an overview of our new features: enhanced data downloads and the Chart Data API. ourworldindata.org/easier-to-re...

ourworldindata.org

We've made it much easier to reuse our data

An overview of our new features: enhanced data downloads and the Chart Data API.

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AnthonyHigney @anthonyhigney.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

The National Milk Scheme led to large increases in Milk consumption (Hollingsworth, 1951). Much lower now.

A line graph of milk and milk products from 1940-1050 in th UK. Main point I wish to make is that milk was 383 lb per head before the war and rose to 542 lb per head by 1950.

Line graph showing UK per capita milk consumption. Going from 140 L per person in 1974 to about 70 in 2017-18.

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Alice Roberts @profaliceroberts.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Wow - @flintdibble.bsky.social has collected loads of archaeology starter packs here in this thread. Lots of fantastic people doing brilliant research and engagement here in the cerulean ether. Thank you Flint!

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