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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

"The UAE must abandon the illusion of strategic exceptionalism, and rebuild its autonomy through a collective Gulf security order" My new piece for @middleeasteye-rss.bsky.social unpacking the friction between middle power narrative and small state reality www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-...

middleeasteye.net

How the Iran war shattered the illusions of the UAE as a rising power

The UAE must abandon the illusion of strategic exceptionalism, and rebuild its autonomy through a collective Gulf security order

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

I don't agree with every phrasing in this @andreaskrieg.bsky.social piece but I think the core framework of the IRGC as a state military that is structured like a non-state militia is a really useful one it's built to endure more or less precisely this war dawnmena.org/america-is-b...

dawnmena.org

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

Every war the West has fought in the post-9/11 “War on Terror” era has ended in some form of stalemate or outright defeat. Tactical battlefield successes never consolidated into sustainable strategic ...

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Mi Ra SOUL @flipcritic.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

For the past year or so, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social has been a guiding light for me in understanding Middle East geopolitics (and beyond). This is one of his most thoughtful episodes on what's going on (not just the usual fear mongering elsewhere). youtu.be/KNRXCXz8yXs

youtu.be

"Fourth #Gulf War is highly unstable, with unlimited potential for escalation"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Mi Ra SOUL @flipcritic.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

This panel hosted by @andreaskrieg.bsky.social at the Paris Defense and Security Forum is one of the most comprehensive I've listened to with regards to the geopolitical and maritime realities of the War in Iran. I learned things here that have not been covered by MSM www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQXG...

youtube.com

PDSF 2026 - Supply chain security around the Strait of Hormuz

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

DAWN @dawnmenaorg.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

"Neoconservative narratives of imperial regime change projected by Israel and the United States will do more to confirm the IRGC’s worldview than challenge it," writes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the group's role in the Israel/U.S.-Iran War.

dawnmena.org

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

My longer read on the flawed US/Israeli assumptions when fighting a networked militia with a state "Israel and America are now at war with the largest militia network in the world — a network of networks engineered to endure attrition indefinitely" #IRGC #Iran #Trump dawnmena.org/america-is-b...

dawnmena.org

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Rebecca Kennison @rrkennison.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

“The issue with the Strait of Hormuz is really not a military one. … It’s a market issue, and confidence cannot be restored by the military. Confidence can be restored through diplomacy only.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

aje.news

How Iran defied Trump threats to emerge as Strait of Hormuz gatekeeper

Trump has called on other navies to help open the strait, but countries are instead striking deals with Iran.

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

“For now, the Gulf feels abandoned by the US: asked to do diplomacy, punished for doing it, and left to absorb the blowback - again.”

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Hannes Baumann @hannesbaumann.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

"[The Gulf's] business model is ... built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model that the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Frederick Deknatel @freddydeknatel.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the Gulf's nightmare: "It is built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."

middleeasteye.net

Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out

From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Jacobin Magazin @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

»Realistischer ist ein langwieriger Konflikt mit Eskalationsspitzen und ruhigeren Phasen: eine intensive Anfangsphase, gefolgt von Abnutzungskämpfen mit geringerem Tempo, in denen der Iran versucht, den Druck auf Israel und die US-Partner im Golf aufrechtzuerhalten«, meint @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.

jacobin.de

Trump wird im Iran keinen schnellen Sieg erringen

Die USA und Israel haben Irans Kommandostruktur schwer beschädigt – doch das System ist darauf ausgelegt, Führungskrisen zu überstehen. So droht der Angriff zu einem längeren Konflikt zu werden, der in der Region und auf dem Weltmarkt für Chaos sorgt.

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Jan Pi @dr-john-von-pi.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

The info of #Iran ’s networked command structure I got from the arabdigest.org podcast with defence & security analyst & Gulf specialist @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. The #US+ #Israel war against #Iran is upending security in the Gulf states & creating global anxiety & uncertainty. 1/

arabdigest.org

Arab Digest Home - Essential reading from independent sources

Arab Digest Home - where business leaders and experts on the Middle East and North Africa come together to share analysis and insight

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

My take ✒️ "Israel is fighting Iran to the last Gulfie" How the Gulf states became collateral damage in Israel's War and why strategic autonomy is required to neither become pawns in Israel's new "order" nor leave Iranian aggression unanswered www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf...

middleeasteye.net

Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out

From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

" #India is a country that doesn't want to choose sides. It does not want to be pushed into certain alignments or into a zero-sum game. And that is the sort of game Netanyahu is in. That does not necessarily align with Modi’s vision for India as a great power" #Israel youtu.be/X_eyWhxxuFU

youtu.be

What's driving 'special relationship' between Israel and India? | Inside Story

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

“With elections due later this year, Netanyahu has a clear incentive to project statesmanship and to argue that #Israel isn't diplomatically isolated and that it can still convene meaningful regional and extra-regional partnerships,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...

aljazeera.com

What’s Netanyahu’s planned ‘hexagon’ alliance – and can it work?

Analysts call PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance pitch a 'fantasy world' as Israel faces growing international isolation.

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

This is, unfortunately, true. “Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” @andreaskrieg.bsky.social told Amwaj.media

amwaj.media

Where the Saudi-UAE rift Leaves Oman, Qatar

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have long simmered beneath the surface. However, developments in southern and eastern Yemen in Dec. 2025 and Jan. 2026 made such fricti...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

“Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” Krieg told Amwaj.media. amwaj.media/en/article/w...

amwaj.media

Where the Saudi-UAE rift Leaves Oman, Qatar

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Monica Marks @monicamarks.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Academia needs a reckoning about Epstein. Not only in terms of the amount of lechery & sexual harassment that flies beneath the radar—and it’s a lot. But also about the tendency, deeply embedded amongst university leaderships, to hire & kiss up to the criminally immoral.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

My take on the #UAE's Brotherhood conspiracy theory and the far-Right: "It is a dangerous attempt to shape discourse, influence attitudes, polarise constituencies, and ultimately subvert policymaking in the UK" www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/brit...

middleeasteye.net

Britain must reject the UAE's Brotherhood bogeyman

The Islamist bogeyman of the “Muslim Brotherhood” is back as a catch-all scarecrow wielded by networks fuelled by the UAE and Israel

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

As Bibi arrives in DC: "Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests." www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...

andreaskrieg.com

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

"The #UAE have a long history of delegating statecraft to surrogates and intermediaries, working through networks and creating interdependencies they can weaponize" #Libya #Sudan #Ethiopia #Somalia #Yemen Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Hff...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 09/02/2026

"There is an agreement on a framework of a nuclear deal... Qatar and Oman believe that this can be a first step into something that in a first instance looks like the JCPOA 2.0 to which other elements can be added such as missiles. But it is tiny steps at the time" youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k

youtu.be

"Slightly closer to diplomatic off-ramp with Iran than war this week"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..." youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

"@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.” “Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries" www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

washingtonpost.com

After Yemen rift, Saudi Arabia aims to oust UAE from wider region

Saudi Arabia, alarmed by what it sees as aggressive moves by its onetime ally, is working to counter the influence the UAE has built around the Red Sea.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure" www.dw.com/en/albania-w...

dw.com

Albania: What role does the MEK play in the Iran protests?

Some 3,000 members of the opposition People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (MEK) are sheltering in Albania. It has been claimed that the MEK plays an important role in the protests in Iran. Some ex...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

My piece for @aljazeera.com ✍️ "Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control" Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...

aljazeera.com

Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy

Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to 'help' Iran's protesters. But he has few good options.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering". "By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm" www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...

linkedin.com

Israel moves Yellow Line deeper into Gaza, satellite images show

Israel placed and later moved control markers in three areas, with placed deeper inside Gaza than maps suggested.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

"I don’t think there’s such a thing as a decisive strike against Iran, because that would require a long, drawn-out military campaign — and I don’t think the Trump administration is ready for that. youtu.be/KXWM4Sddjv0

youtu.be

What purpose does the massive US military presence in the Gulf serve? | Inside Story

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

As MbS enters the 3rd phase of his reign, #Saudi has a unique opportunity to build a KSA-centric regional order as it is pushing back against the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists I look at what Riyadh needs to do to create a Pax Saudiana #Sudan #Yemen #Somalia amwaj.media/en/article/p...

amwaj.media

Pax Saudiana: The return of Saudi statecraft?

One useful way to read the recent escalation along Yemen’s southern coastline is not as a local quarrel over ports and militias, but as a signal that Riyadh now believes it has an opening to reconstit...

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

“An Emirati ‘exit’ in uniform does not necessarily mean an exit in influence,” he said. “If Abu Dhabi judges Yemen remains central to its broader maritime and geo-economic posture, it will retain levers through partners, finance, logistics, and political sponsorship.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Megan O’Toole @meganotoole.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

“Saudi Arabia has fired what amounts to a warning shot across an ally’s bow: the era in which the UAE could build a separate sphere of influence inside Yemen, while sheltering beneath the label of a ‘Saudi-led coalition’, is ending” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

middleeasteye.net

Yemen war: Mukalla strike shows Saudi Arabia has run out of patience with Abu Dhabi

Unprecedented attack caps years of tensions between Riyadh and the UAE over their differing regional visions

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

My new piece on how #Saudi is enforcing red lines desperately trying to contain the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists across the region For Riyadh #Yemen is not a chessboard, but its backyard Abu Dhabi's foothold will be maintained by surrogate network www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/yeme...

middleeasteye.net

Yemen war: Mukalla strike shows Saudi Arabia has run out of patience with Abu Dhabi

Unprecedented attack caps years of tensions between Riyadh and the UAE over their differing regional visions

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

"We might not like what the UAE are doing, how they're doing it. But they have made themselves indispensable in all these conflicts. I call it weaponized interdependence. They've created a web that is so all encompassing that you'll have to eventually speak to them" www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 23/11/2025

My MEE podcast on the roots of Abu Dhabi's strategic thinking and culture, the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists and how it transformed from a small state to a middle power by intervening in #Sudan, #Yemen, #Somalia, #Libya and #Egypt youtu.be/au8rfmdUGvo?...

youtu.be

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.» www.nzz.ch/internationa...

nzz.ch

Von Kamelreitern zu High-Tech-Piloten – wie Drohnen den Sudan-Krieg verändern

Drohnen sind das neue Machtinstrument in Afrikas Kriegen. Nirgendwo zeigt sich das so drastisch wie im Sudan. Eine visuelle Analyse über diese neue Waffe – und die Mächte im Hintergrund.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 07/11/2025

My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan "Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table" www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...

middleeasteye.net

The UAE has taken Sudan to the brink. Now it must use its power to end the war

By doubling down on the RSF, Abu Dhabi expanded the brutal civil war. It should now leverage that entanglement to push for deescalation

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

"This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

newarab.com

How the fall of El-Fasher could cement Sudan’s partition

Marking one of the bloodiest chapters in the brutal 18-month war, the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF could permanently alter Sudan’s map

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Merlyn Thomas @merlynthomas.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

For Palestinians, a line on a map can be the difference between life and death. BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal. Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Israel maintaining control deeper inside Gaza than expected, new boundary markers suggest

Israel has placed boundary markers up to 520m deeper inside Gaza than expected under the ceasefire deal with Hamas.

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Reposted by Dr Andreas Krieg

Merlyn Thomas @merlynthomas.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

Multiple experts suggested the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF troops. "This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

"This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

yahoo.com

Turkey, Qatar step up bid to protect Gaza truce

Turkey and Qatar intensified efforts to preserve the fragile Gaza ceasefire, with their leaders meeting in Doha Wednesday as diplomatic and intelligence chiefs coordinated to prevent renewed fighting,...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 16/10/2025

"As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

'Worse than starting from scratch': how big is the task of rebuilding Gaza?

BBC Verify investigates the damage done by two years of war, which could take $70bn and decades to repair.

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence. youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw

youtu.be

"The Gulf has generated strategic autonomy through network-centric statecraft"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

"Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza's civil and governance infrastructure. With Hamas severely degraded, the vacuum may be filled by rival factions. This chaos could serve Israel’s interests, providing a pretext to re-enter under the guise of restoring order" youtu.be/_n1-xR-LF34

youtu.be

"Collapse of law and order in Gaza greatest threat to peace plan"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 11/10/2025

Citing Sarajevo, Grozny, and Mosul, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social said: “There are precedents, but #Gaza is totally different. There it was one single city — here it is four times that — one massive strip of land.” www.thetimes.com/world/middle...

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

"A transition to sustainable peace in #Gaza lacks four elements: (1) a mutually hurting stalemate; (2) effective leadership on both sides; (3) committed international guarantors; and (4) a viable DDR program for disarmament amid an open-ended IDF withdrawal plan" youtu.be/7GhxRS9ohgs

youtu.be

What is next for the Palestinian resistance movements? | Inside Story

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

"Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”

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