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Vali Nasr

@valinasr.bsky.social
3.1K followers 120 following 421 posts

Professor Johns Hopkins-SAIS, Fr Sr Advisor, State Dept, author of Iran's Grand Strategy a.co/d/egLBCgz

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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Mark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
nytimes.com
Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S.
In a wide-ranging interview, the Canadian leader laid out a detailed vision for breaking his country’s dependency on the United States.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Mark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
nytimes.com
Mark Carney Interview: Canada’s Leader Lays Out Vision for Breaking Reliance on U.S.
In a wide-ranging interview, the Canadian leader laid out a detailed vision for breaking his country’s dependency on the United States.
186
Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...
youtube.com
US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live
YouTube video by The Wire
043
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...
youtube.com
US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live
YouTube video by The Wire
043
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Trump ordered US to bomb Houthis on Sunday and then changed his mind. US is short on ammunition or is he worried of Houthis retaliation on Saudi oil facilities or he is keeping his powder dry for a bigger bombing campaign to come against Iran? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Gets Caught in a Dilemma Over a Saudi Plea for Military Help
The president vacillated but decided on Sunday not to join Saudi Arabia, for now, in joint strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. But he also needs the kingdom’s cooperation in his war against Iran.
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
csis.org
Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East
The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater...
0126
Reposted by Vali Nasr
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 16/09/2026
“Iran sees ample opportunity to influence the shape of an emergent order and sees itself as an important part of it,” writes @valinasr.bsky.social. Read more from @mideast.csis.org: bit.ly/4htC6ee
bit.ly
Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East
The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater influence in a more multipolar region.
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
CSIS | Center for Strategic & International Studies @csis.org · 17/09/2026
"In the vacuum left by the U.S., Iran expects that China will play a larger role in the Middle East. Its economic presence will likely increase, as will its diplomatic role in mediating peace between rival alliances," writes @valinasr.bsky.social Read: bit.ly/4htC6ee
bit.ly
Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East
The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater...
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
CSIS Middle East @mideast.csis.org · 17/09/2026
"Iran believes that its hold over the Strait of Hormuz will diminish U.S. appetite for another war with Iran, and that will in turn limit Israel’s military options," writes @valinasr.bsky.social in the second installment of The Middle East Futures Papers. www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
csis.org
Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East
The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with…
043
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
csis.org
Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East
The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater...
0126
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
JD Vance decided to get his own unvarnished account of how the war is going from US commanders in the field. According NYT what he "came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/u...
nytimes.com
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
My interview with WTFinance podcast on where the US-Iran stand-off is heading and the legacy of the war youtu.be/DmXJIDku62I?...
youtu.be
The Middle East has been Reshaped Forever | Vali Nasr
YouTube video by WTFinance
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
excellent take on ground realities of Iran's economy and why America can’t easily strangle it www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-ame...
foreignaffairs.com
Why America Can’t Strangle Iran
The sources of Tehran’s economic resilience.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I really enjoyed reading Liaquat Ahamed's 1873. It is economic history at its best. Really well-written and very informative and with much to say the economy today a.co/d/08R0H4dX
a.co
Amazon.com
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Time Is No Longer on Iran’s Side in the Battle of the Blockades
The U.S. is helping Gulf states move significant amounts of oil out of the region while thwarting Tehran’s shipments.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
My interview with the Telegraph on implications of six month of war for the regional order youtu.be/kTyBdV2-sxA?...
youtu.be
‘We’re going to see a reckoning’ of the global order: Middle East scholar’s verdict
YouTube video by The Telegraph
042
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As Trump’s economic warfare takes its toll, Tehran will be tempted to go on the offensive in search of greater leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/26/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Why Iran Might Escalate
As Trump’s economic warfare takes its toll, Tehran will be tempted to go on the offensive in search of greater leverage
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions “Any serious increase in US sanctions on China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, would risk exploding the relationship only a month before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington” www.ft.com/content/aa7b...
ft.com
China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions
Beijing says it will take ‘all necessary measures’ if Washington expands crackdown on business with Tehran
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Important piece by Nate Swanson on why Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail. “Forty-seven years of prioritizing pressure culminated in a costly war that revealed the limits of what that approach can accomplish.” www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
foreignaffairs.com
Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail
Trump's war has brought American strategy to a dead end.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions “Any serious increase in US sanctions on China, which buys 90 per cent of Iran’s oil, would risk exploding the relationship only a month before presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington” www.ft.com/content/aa7b...
ft.com
China warns US it could retaliate over Iran sanctions
Beijing says it will take ‘all necessary measures’ if Washington expands crackdown on business with Tehran
1117
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bessant's roll-out of "Economic D-Day" suggests that the baton in the Iran war has been passed from Hegseth and the Pentagon to Bessant and the Treasury. He is embracing the idea that he and the Treasury will win the war for Trump, deliver what the military hasn't.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
I told the Guardian “The whole point Iran is making is that ‘We’re not going to let him decide the sort of ebb and flow of this war. Their position is ‘We have a vote here, and we’re not just going to make it convenient for him’” www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
theguardian.com
Persuasion, denial and bluster: Trump ‘stuck’ on Iran war ahead of elections
As the president tries to extract the US from his Iran war quagmire, leadership in Tehran is only too happy to crush his midterm dreams
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I spoke with ⁦‪⁦‪Ishaan Tharoor of New Yorker Magazine‬⁩ on impact of war on US standing: “Everybody now sees America as less than it was before. Once this war is over, U.S. is going to find the rest of the world much more difficult to herd around any coherent policy.”
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I told NYT problem with Trump’s threat of economic pressure on Iran is: “there is no reasonable deal for Iran on the table. They bet that the only way to get a better deal is to accept costs now and hold the global economy’s and Trump’s feet to the fire.” www.nytimes.com/2026/08/19/w...
nytimes.com
Trump, With Limited Options in Iran, Tries Economic Pressure — Again
Iran has survived decades of sanctions. Faced with more, it is likely to escalate rather than surrender, analysts said.
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
My interview with Equator magazine: "How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next" along with personal reflections on the 1979 revolution US-Iran relations www.equator.org/articles/tru...
equator.org
Iran After America • EQUATOR
How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next
11411
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Trump cannot walk away from the war with Iran nor can he make the war low key. That would need a ceasefire, and control over the war which he does’nt have. The war is in a holding pattern. Iran will not give Trump to low key the war to his convenience.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
It was a pleasure joining Gideon Rachman for a podcast on FT to discuss Iran’s growing strategic ambitions out of the war www.ft.com/content/58a3...
ft.com
Iran’s growing strategic ambitions
Vali Nasr on how Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is changing the balance of power in the Middle East
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Iran is defying US economic pressure by "moving from a resilient economy that absorbs shocks towards a survival economy that keeps functioning but steadily loses its capacity to recover” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Excellent read in hos Iran exhausted US munitions www.nytimes.com/2026/08/11/u...
nytimes.com
How Iran Adapted Its Attacks as U.S. War Munitions Dwindled (Gift Article)
The Iranian strikes that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan show how quickly Iran’s war-fighting skills have evolved, as the Pentagon runs low on interceptors.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I told FT on new Iran national security advisor “Rezaei, as a more senior former commander and longest-serving commander of IRGC has far more authority and gravitas with military men than Zolghadr. It is tightening control by Mojtaba over IRGC & decision making.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Iran replaces top security official at crucial moment in talks over Strait of Hormuz
Mohsen Rezaei appointed head of Supreme National Security Council after Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr steps down
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
I joined John Mearsheimer on Tom Switzer’s podcast to discuss Iran comes for US in Iran war? www.youtube.com/live/oW-QcUM...
youtube.com
Mearsheimer, Nasr: What Comes Next in Iran?
YouTube video by Switzerland with Tom Switzer
031
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
great piece by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani: "Peace With Iran Won’t Last Unless It Benefits Ordinary Iranians" prosyn.org/P742xyO
prosyn.org
Peace With Iran Won’t Last Unless It Benefits Ordinary Iranians
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani argues that only rebuilding the Islamic Republic’s economy can keep a future ceasefire from collapsing.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
A month of intense bombing and the grand achievement is an Iran-Oman deal to clarify and tighten language around Iran’s control over SoH so U.S. and Iran can go back to MoU. U.S. military pressure over past month seems to have improved the MoU terms for Iran !!
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
I told FT "Trump cannot win militarily at this level  and he cannot resolve this diplomatically without paying a political cost at home." So he is "lashing out because this is not as simple and as straightforward as he had calculated.” www.ft.com/content/87b0...
ft.com
Donald Trump trapped between escalation and an Iran deal on Tehran’s terms
US president faces few good options to exit a war he once said would end swiftly with the Islamic republic’s surrender
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
I told WSJ Trump is "trying his hand now at a diplomatic solution to avoid military escalation. But there’s no clear path, either diplomatically or militarily to allow Trump to declare victory” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
I told FT Iran has escalated "to force the US to recalculate its options, following a strategy of forcing the US as far away from Iran as possible: out of the Gulf, Syria, Iraq; holed up in Israel and Jordan.”https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/46485f78-9485-43b8-a43d-2e741f5697e0
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
My interview with Equator magazine: "How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next" along with personal reflections on the 1979 revolution US-Iran relations www.equator.org/articles/tru...
equator.org
Iran After America • EQUATOR
How the West misjudged Tehran – and what the Islamic Republic will do next
11411
Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I told Nancy Youssef and Jon Levine of Atlantic “America’s calculation is that escalation would lead to surrender. Iran’s calculation is that escalation would lead to deterrence,” www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
theatlantic.com
This May Be Trump’s Biggest Error in the Iran War
Success requires knowing what motivates your enemy.
02012
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I told Nancy Youssef and Jon Levine of Atlantic “America’s calculation is that escalation would lead to surrender. Iran’s calculation is that escalation would lead to deterrence,” www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
theatlantic.com
This May Be Trump’s Biggest Error in the Iran War
Success requires knowing what motivates your enemy.
02012
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
I told NYT that in restarting the war Trump thought he could control, limiting the battlefield to where U.S. wants to bomb in Iran.“The Iranian response is to extend the battlefield much, much wider, so the United States has to defend a broader battlefield.” www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/u...
nytimes.com
U.S. Strikes Iran Again, as Trump Encounters a More Determined Adversary in Widened War
The United States is again exchanging strikes with Iran, just days after the president appeared to reject plans to escalate.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Quite an impasse: Trump has set aside is not escalating the war, because it could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of defense munitions, widene war, alienate regional allies, tank the global economy, and cause refugee crises. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/25/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Holds Off on Major War Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns
Among the worries is that expanded hostilities could dangerously drain the diminished stockpile of air defense munitions in the Middle East.
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Can the U.S. force the Strait open? “the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire is to flood the region with a global force that protects vessels. Only other way is an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...
ft.com
Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?
Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Millions filled the streets for Khamenei's funeral, a turnout Trump admitted caught him off guard. 👤 @valinasr.bsky.social on what the late Supreme Leader's death means for the fragile U.S.-Iran agreement. www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-gaza-...
dropsitenews.com
Beyond the Battlefield: What Comes Next for the Iran and Gaza Wars
Palestinian Lawyer Diana Buttu and Iran analyst Vali Nasr speak to Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain.
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
full interview 👉 youtu.be/xVDTd_OQL1U?...
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
My interview with One Decision podcast on the Iran war and what is Iran's plans for waging it and an endgame youtu.be/xVDTd_OQL1U?...
youtu.be
Iran's War Plan (ft. Vali Nasr), Burnham In, Fedorov Out, Japan's New Spy Agency, China's AI Grab
YouTube video by One Decision
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Can the U.S. force the Strait open? “the quickest way of doing this, [other than] with a ceasefire is to flood the region with a global force that protects vessels. Only other way is an arrangement with Iran, which means the Americans are going to have to lose face. www.ft.com/content/1cbe...
ft.com
Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?
Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks
1125
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I told LA Times on what might be US next steps: “Everything is dependent on the mood of one man. It’s not the system that’s making the decision; it’s not the country making the decision. It’s one man, and it depends how he feels like at one particular point in time.” www.latimes.com/world-nation...
latimes.com
News Analysis: Trump, long a critic of 'forever wars,' may be stumbling into one with Iran
President Trump railed against "forever wars," but with hostilities increasing and negotiations at a standstill, there appears no easy exit from the war he launched on Iran.
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Reposted by Vali Nasr
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I write in FT: Iran’s leaders suspected the MoU was a temporary retreat by the US, intended to relieve pressure on the global economy and prepare for another round of war. Iran believes to deter US and to compel it to negotiate in earnest Iran has to escalate the conflict. www.ft.com/content/22fd...
ft.com
Why Iran is returning to war
Its rulers believe that further escalation will force the US to offer the security and economic relief it craves
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Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I write in FT: Iran’s leaders suspected the MoU was a temporary retreat by the US, intended to relieve pressure on the global economy and prepare for another round of war. Iran believes to deter US and to compel it to negotiate in earnest Iran has to escalate the conflict. www.ft.com/content/22fd...
ft.com
Why Iran is returning to war
Its rulers believe that further escalation will force the US to offer the security and economic relief it craves
56421