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Arthur Leichthammer

@aleichthammer.bsky.social
1.4K followers 516 following 221 posts

Policy Fellow Geoeconomics @ Jacques Delors Centre, Berlin

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Reposted by Arthur Leichthammer
Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Finally read the new AfD strategy paper on Europe. It casts 2029 as a “historic window” to reorient the EU’s foundations through Treaty change, with a right-wing majority in the EP and a German government with AfD participation both within reach. Thread on some notable points:
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Philipp Jäger @ph-jaeg.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Rejecting the IAA because of opt-in/opt-out would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Trade relations are, obviously, important. But the IAA can be implemented in a way that it doesn't harm them. And the threat of exclusion to EU market can even open some export markets for the EU.
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
⏰ You can still register for the upcoming Henrik Enderlein Fellowship Lecture at the @hertieschool.bsky.social. Join us for a conversation on the societal foundations of Europe's #resilience and the role of state capacity in maintaining public trust. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social Sign up now 👇
delorscentre.eu
Henrik Enderlein Fellowship Event
The Henrik Enderlein Fellowship welcomes incoming Fellow Corina Ajder and honours outgoing Fellow Marija Golubeva. An evening of keynotes and discussion.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
So, in the first half of 2026, German exports: 🇺🇸 to the US: −6.1% 🇨🇳 to China: −12.2% 🇪🇺 to the rest of the EU: +7.5% Since Germany is looking for a new growth model, there might be a clue somewhere in here.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Gestern hat Friedrich Merz gemeinsam mit anderem Staats- und Regierungschef gefordert, der Vorschlag zum nächsten EU-Haushalt müsse um „mehrere Hundert Milliarden“ gekürzt werden. Durch die deutsche Debatte geistern dabei wieder ein paar Mondzahlen. Daher nochmal der Versuch einer Einordnung.
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Yann Wernert @wernertyann.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Am 7. Juli entscheidet sich Marine Le Pens politisches Schicksal. Oder doch nicht? Ich durfte dazu ein paar Gedanken für den Spiegel beisteuern. Die Kurzfassung: Le Pen und Bardella brauchen die Loyalität des jeweils anderen, um 2027 zu gewinnen. Es wird schwierig. www.spiegel.de/ausland/mari...
spiegel.de
(S+) Marine Le Pen: Jetzt beginnt für Frankreichs Rechtspopulisten die schwerste Phase
Jordan Bardella, Chef des Rassemblement National, löst sich Schritt für Schritt von seiner Ziehmutter Marine Le Pen. Am 7. Juli entscheidet ein Gericht, wer von beiden ins Rennen um den Élysée geht.
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
🛰️ One month ago at the French Embassy Berlin: Building a European Security Architecture in Space. Two panels, one message – Europe must act strategically & together. Swipe through for a few of the standout quotes on Europe's path to autonomy, security, and competitiveness in #space. Link below.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Was bei den Diskussionen hier zum Reformpaket nicht untergehen sollte: Die Bundesregierung stellt sich in der EU-Industriepolitik gerade grundsätzlich neu auf. Neuer Handelsschutz gegen China; EU Präferenz in strategischen Sektoren und Joint Venture Regeln für chinesische Investitionen 1/2
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Merz will die EU anführen– bisher mit gemischtem Erfolg. Kein Gespür für den europäischen Prozess, keine Fähigkeit, Partner einzubinden, so der Vorwurf. Doch das Vorpreschen ist kein Versehen, es ist Methode. Mein neuer Artikel für @internationalepolitik.de: internationalepolitik.de/de/fuehrung-...
internationalepolitik.de
Führung im Alleingang
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz möchte innerhalb der Europäischen Union wieder mehr Verantwortung übernehmen.
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Machtpoker am Golf – Unser Policy Fellow @aleichthammer.bsky.social war gestern Teil der phoenix runde. 🎤 Er unterstreicht: "Wirtschaftliche Abhängigkeiten werden zunehmend als Druckmittel benutzt." Die Straße von Hormus ist dafür ein Extrembeispiel, aber kein Einzelfall. Link in den Kommentaren.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Great to see the Commission is developing a key missing tool that can increase political unity and strengthen EU trade credibility. @etiennehoera.d-64.social, @aslak.bsky.social and I laid it out last year with a transatlantic trade war in mind: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
This summer, the EU plans to finally get serious about Chinese industrial policy. The Buy European rules in the Industrial Accelerator Act could be a key part of the answer. The catch: in their current form, they may do more harm than good. @ph-jaeg.bsky.social and I have some ideas to fix them.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Have a read: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
delorscentre.eu
Use What You Have: Why the EU Must Stop Kicking the Trade Can Down the Road
Policy brief: Old trade tools are weak and new ones too slow for Chinese overcapacity. The EU should use safeguards with quotas and monitoring.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
I argue that the EU should make better use of the existing safeguard mechanism. With defensible baselines, country-specific tariff-rate quotas, sectoral targeting and systematic import surveillance, safeguards can provide immediate protection while limiting collateral damage to trading partners.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Anti-dumping & anti-subsidy measures are overburdened and too case-specific to address a cross-sectoral shock. New instruments, meanwhile, would take years to design, legislate and operationalise. Nor would they remove the political difficulty of agreement or the risk of Chinese retaliation.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
As EU leaders gather at the European Council tomorrow to discuss mounting Chinese import pressure, a consensus is emerging that industrial overcapacity poses a systemic threat to Europe’s manufacturing base. Far less settled is what the EU should do about it.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Fantastic new OECD data comparing international subsidies in key sectors. "For Chinese firms, almost 60% of their global market share gains can be explained by the subsidies received." Worth keeping in mind when people insist Europe’s competitiveness problem is mainly about overregulation.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
how come you grouped sweden and germany lol?
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
the clock is ticking
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
mieser slay, thu
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Luise Quaritsch @luisequaritsch.eurosky.social · 19/05/2026
The latest reports about the suspension of DMA fines against Google confirm what @aleichthammer.bsky.social and I wrote last year in an opinion piece for @table.media: With Trump, negotiations are never settled. Concessions today only fuel new demands tomorrow. www.delorscentre.eu/de/publikati...
delorscentre.eu
Why the DSA is not up for negotiation
Just days after unveiling details of the transatlantic trade arrangement, Donald Trump threatened retaliatory tariffs over the EU’s digital laws. Brussels must now draw a line: its rulebook is not up ...
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Jannik Jansen @jannikjansen.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Some seats still available for Wednesday's keynote with Spanish FM José Manuel Albares @delorsberlin.bsky.social @hertieschool.bsky.social Madrid's emphasis on multilateralism & international law has been widely noted. A chance to hear the rationale firsthand. www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
At the risk of not being able to visit my friends in the US anymore: the ongoing evidence of full-fledged kleptocracy is insane www.ft.com/content/f921...
ft.com
Donald Trump traded hundreds of millions of dollars in US securities in first quarter
Transactions relating to companies including Nvidia, Palantir, Paramount and Boeing listed in disclosures
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
We are very pleased to welcome Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares next Wednesday for a keynote speech on the future of Europe. The keynote will be followed by a discussion with me and Q&A with the audience. Join us! Spaces are limited, register here: www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...
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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
📣 How can the EU shape foreign investment? Our latest policy brief by @jannikjansen.bsky.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social looks at the Industrial Accelerator Act and what it means for Europe’s industrial strategy, zooming in on the principle of selective conditionality. Link in the comments.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Great to see Sweden, Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany and NL pushing for stronger rule of law conditionality in next MFF, as reported by FT. Especially good to see their proposal to introduce reverse QMV for sanctions, which I also argued for in this JDC paper: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
This report and @palmapolyak.bsky.social’s recent work on European gigafactories diagnosing the same failure: weakly conditioned investment rules and badly integrated and governed subsidies are causing many incoherences that are undermining EU industrial policy at the moment we need it the most.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Sometimes it takes a whole village to raise a paper (or smth like this) Genuinely proud of this one - many a sleepless nights with @jannikjansen.bsky.social coming to fruition For the German readers amongst you, Handelsblatt covered us exclusively www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...
handelsblatt.com
Handelspolitik: Experten kritisieren Abschwächung von EU-Investitionsvorgaben
Die EU will strategische Sektoren vor unlauterem Wettbewerb aus China schützen. Eine dem Handelsblatt vorliegende Analyse zeigt, warum das geplante Gesetz dieses Ziel nicht erreichen könnte.
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
German Foreign Minister Wadephul gave a keynote speech on the EU yesterday titled "Boldly shaping the future of Europe", with several proposals for institutional reform: www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/... Quick thread on the main points:
auswaertiges-amt.de
Rede von Außenminister Johann Wadephul auf der XIII. Adenauer Konferenz - „Mutig die Zukunft Europas gestalten“
Kohle und Stahl, zwei Roh- und Werkstoffe, die über Jahrhunderte sowohl Auslöser als auch Grundlage für Krieg in Europa waren. Sie bildeten 1950 das Fundament eines der erfolgreichsten&...
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Ein Unternehmen gründen in nur 48 Std, das in ganz Europa operieren kann, ohne viel Papierkram oder Kosten - das ist das zentrale Versprechen von EU Inc. Ob EU Inc. ein Gamechanger für Europas Startups wird, darüber spreche ich mit @marleneschoerner.bsky.social: open.spotify.com/episode/3OIB...
open.spotify.com
EU Inc. – Gamechanger für Europas Startups?
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China. But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves. New paper & thread 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Suspending funds is the EU’s strongest tool to safeguard rule of law. In Hungary, release of frozen EU funds was a key factor in Péter Magyar’s campaign. The Commission wants to enshrine RoL conditionality in the next MFF. In a new paper, I take a closer look: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...
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Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Die @szde.bsky.social berichtet heute Morgen über mein neues Papier zum Vorschlag der EU-Kommission, EU-Gelder im neuen mehrjährigen Haushalt stärker an die Rechtsstaatlichkeit zu knüpfen: www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/unga...
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Marlene Schörner @marleneschoerner.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Young, innovative firms often struggle to grow in Europe, and access to finance is a key issue. Now the EU is setting up a €5bn public-private fund: The Scaleup Europe Fund. In my new policy brief, I discuss whether this is a good idea and how the fund should be designed. Main takeaways 👇
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Yann Wernert @wernertyann.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Kommunalwahlen, Endergebnisse: Frankreich ist mehrheitlich mitte-rechts in der Fläche, links in den Großstädten, und es gab Trostpreise für die Ränder und Renaissance. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse und ihre Folgen: 🧵 www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Of course, yet if you look at the market shifts these specific words have caused so far... Not saying this is not dangerous, but rather to stay calm for the moment and react firmly to concrete plans or measures rather than to every snippet/TruthSocial
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
🚨🚨 Unusual with such moral integrity for a European political leader: Spanish PM Pedro Sanches insists that #Spain won't temper criticism of #Trump's attacks on #Iran over fear of reprisals and commercial pressure. 👇 www.politico.eu/article/pedr...
politico.eu
Sánchez says Spain won’t temper criticism of Trump’s attack on Iran over ‘fear of reprisals’
Spanish PM insists he won’t bow to U.S. commercial pressure, as he leads international opposition to the strikes against Tehran.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
End/ For now the threats are half-baked. But the EU should still take note. The right response is simple: close ranks early to prevent pressure points and hit back hard if coercion materialises
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
8/ So while Trump’s rhetoric sounds dramatic, replicating a Lithuania-style pressure campaign against a single EU member would be difficult for Washington. Tariffs/blockades targeting a single EU country would also be hard to enforce and could lead to mysterious trade flow changes
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
7/ Important caveat for today: the US does not have the same toolkit China used. Beijing spent years building a sophisticated and restrictive economic coercion apparatus, using informal pressure via customs authorities, regulators, and supply chains: tools that are harder to deploy for Washington
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
6/ The pressure Vilnius felt most strongly came from inside the single market, when European firms exposed to China became the main transmission belt for Beijing’s coercion. Surely, there is a lesson there.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
5/ In the end, the impact was real but limited. Lithuania’s CHN exports collapsed and companies faced disruption but Vilnius did not reverse its policy and eventually bilateral relations stabilised. But the episode highlights both how creative economic coercion can be and why EU solidarity matters
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
4/ More creatively, Beijing targeted wider supply chains, warning EU companies that using Lithuanian components could jeopardise their CHN market access. Entire shipments could be blocked if it contained just one Lithuanian component. A particularly receptive conduit: German car industry 'sigh'
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
3/ China used a mix of direct and indirect pressure: • Lithuanian exports blocked or delayed • Lithuania temporarily removed from Chinese customs systems • Food export approvals halted • Freight routes disrupted At its peak, trade flows essentially collapsed.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
2/ But that doesn’t mean economic punishment of a single EU country is impossible. An insightful precedent: China’s pressure campaign against Lithuania in 2021 after Vilnius allowed a Taiwanese Representative Office. And Beijing got surprisingly far.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
1/ An interesting question, however, is whether individual EU member states can, in fact, be hit by bilateral trade sanctions. The EU runs a common commercial policy, so trade measures generally apply to the entire bloc, not individual states. So “cutting trade with Spain” isn’t simple.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
🧵 Trump wanting to cut all trade ties with Spain over use of US military bases is getting attention and some say Merz should've piped up more strongly. For now, it's mostly rhetorical pressure ('waffle'), so the damage is limited. If it becomes any more concrete, the EU must decisively rebuke.
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Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
This is the way. And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.
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Arthur Leichthammer @aleichthammer.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/publications...
single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu
Industrial Accelerator Act
Industrial Accelerator Act Regulation
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