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Alan Swallow

@alanswallow.bsky.social
171 followers 287 following 201 posts

Retired pension risk manager, actuary, with an interest in wider economy. England rugby fan, who likes the French. And Spain. Likes balance.

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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Heard some weeks ago someone refer to the likely Burnham move being a double lock with a little chain on the side. Can’t recall where. But seems quite appropriate. A lock on a longer leash. Agree. New earnings test a lock nonetheless. Just within a different set of locks.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Reviewed”, not “received”.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The Turner pension commission envisaged such an agreement be found before the triple lock is relinquished. None of which is to deny that benefits need to be received for those of working age and capacity.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
As we have discussed before, state pension needs a step up, IMO. £13K is nowhere near a liveable pension. I think we discussed say £15k plus higher auto enrolment contributions that permit lower risk investments. And this framework would allow letting go of the triple lock.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Should our aspiration be that after 35 years you get a pension so low you are means tested? What indignity to have this for the rest of your life. I look forward to how all benefits to be recast. But key to be avoided is undignified, poverty trap, mitigated only by expensive, non planned support.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Quick search: Universal credit -single standard amount over 25 is £424.90 pw. State Pension with 35 years credit is £241.30 pw. ? UC addition for health condition £217.26 pw. Plus pension credit and allowances possible for pensioners. Etc But. Pensioners are pensioners for rest of their life.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Where does the book “Debt: the first 5000 years” feature in helping tell the story?
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Critically for me, many (eg carers, disabled, …) don’t get any private provision. And those that do have Defined Contribution pot within which group there are many losers (look at spread of outcomes around the averages used in charts). How to square that circle? More saving not an answer for them.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Await conclusions of Pensions Commission with interest. A real problem to solve, implied by your chart showing declining private pensions, is that the State Pension is insufficient to live off (even at £13000 pa), yet many will have insufficient funds beyond that.
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 12/09/2026
Things I was frightened of as a child: -Quicksand -Spontaneous human combustion -Sinister men conspiring to take away women's rights
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By Cory Doctorow (GPG 0xBF3D9110957E5F4C) @doctorow.pluralistic.net · 12/09/2026
Remember: every time you repeat a story about how awfully, terribly dangerous their products are, you help them raise more investment capital, which is a key input for their business (hooking up statistical engines to money-furnaces): peoples-things.ghost.io/youre-doing-...
peoples-things.ghost.io
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
One reason England does so well is our second generation immigrants outperform their peers which is not true in most OECD countries. We are also very good at integration. And it's v sad that this is never acknowledge in debates on immigration.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
What news do they consume? I have a number of friends in that camp but their info on what is happening in the world is very different to the info I receive. Garbage in …
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Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Been taking CDC raw data as largely reliable until now. Can't justify that now that they're revising counts for political purposes. Johns Hopkins sources data direct from the individual state departments of health, and is probably the best place to go. publichealth.jhu.edu/ivac/resourc...
publichealth.jhu.edu
U.S. Measles Tracker | International Vaccine Access Center
Measles outbreaks have hit multiple U.S. states, vaccination & rapid reporting are critical to limit the spread & hospitalizations
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
“Live in the heart of the city” double album? Saw them at Hammersmith Odeon for that tour. Brilliant. And saw their first tour, at Coventry Apollo. Not so keen on their less blues like style a bit later on.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Whitesnake in 70s very rooted in Blues. Those first tours were great, with unforgettable Heart of the City tour in 80. Great live band Love the Bobby Blue Band song, which was on the Lincoln Lawyer.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
My Nan’s brother, Manchester Regiment boxer from Crumlin (South Wales), killed by machine gun bullet in last weeks of the war. In a small cemetery in corner of a farmer’s field donated by the French people, in Briastre.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Probably they are focused just on the dark red data and how this amount has grown to make their talking points. But ….
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
You can demand a return to "Christian values", or you can attack empathy as "suicidal". You cannot do both.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Plus. Means testing was ruled out by the previous pensions commission for good reason. Our “auto enrolment” of low pension contributions to create a saving pot for those in employment falls apart. Means testing state pension incentivises opting out of this when a lifetime view is taken.
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Sean Jones KC @seanjones.org · 04/08/2026
What I love about Bluesky is what I loved about old Twitter: if I want to find out about something (however recondite) there will be someone here (often with a PhD in it) and the time and patience to share their knowledge. /1
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Joe Sarling @joesarling.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Getting flashbacks to reading Piketty in 2013
ft.com
We’ve moved from income world to wealth world
Passive wealth gains increasingly matter more than earnings for one’s standing in society
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
We all die. The excess deaths represent shortened life expectancy. There is some evidence that in periods after the heatwave we have fewer than expected deaths. However terrible, the better question, surely, is how much are lives shortened? I think the better Covid reporting covered this.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Whilst in no way doubting the very cear severity of the changed climate we are living with, and that it will get hotter from here too, I would ask for a better framing of the excess deaths figure. With some scientific thinking behind it.
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Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 30/07/2026
++BREAKING++ The UK and Spanish governments have issued a joint statement overnight: "[We] agreed that this summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life." www.gov.uk/government/n...
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Like sure point out that lots of spending promises and no new taxes will likely lead to more borrowing than expected. But the false precision is so misleading.
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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
With the release of today's data the impact of the UK summer heatwaves is becoming increasingly clear. Deaths were unusually high for the time of year during the May and June heatwaves, and unusually low during the weeks in between. Need to wait a few more weeks to see the impact of July heatwave.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
To state the obvious, there two things are not compatible.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Though NI doesn’t address the wealthy pensioners vs those in poverty issue. Much better to simplify the tax system, and as part of that ensure wealthy pensioners are paying appropriately.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
State Pension has to be seen in pensions context as a whole. Last pensions commission found it doesn’t work alongside our preferred “auto enrolment” solution. New pensions commission ought to be looking at this in the round. Better and easier solution ought to increasing tax on wealthy pensioners.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Competition and barter was between enemies. Social cohesion, cooperation in teams, and give and take, was within communities. Survival of the most adaptable, not the strongest. If memory serves me correctly.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Some good stuff out there. Dasha. Zach Bryan.. ?
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Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Spot the explosive UK bond risk premium vs USTs after swapping out fx & OIS:
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Our elections increasingly follow pattern of USA, based on vibes, presentation and unchallenged misinformation / reports based on poor logic, bad data, and inability of reporters/ presenters/ recipients to think through what is presented.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I find it difficult talking to friends who absorb Times Radio, Talk Radio, BBC, GB News, etc who are bothered by welfare costs. I think they are focused on non pensioner benefits, especially disability and NEETs. Without working out why mixes of categories change over time. Very frustrating.
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
UK tax is going to be the highest since 1945. But public spending won't increase; in fact most of us will experience a decline in public services. Here's why - in a thread that I'd love to be completely wrong.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
The 1980s version wasn’t bad either. Compared to now. At least the State could still shoulder risks regular folk cannot provide for.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Probably means it isn’t just down to one person but down to a number behind him who still see him as useful, whose interests are not ours. Otherwise they would act?
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
This point from @ldfreedman.bsky.social (who's been in Washington this week) is key. Out of malice and stupidity the Trump administration has destroyed its own decision-making capabilities.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Britain sold £300 million of 30-year gilts today at a tender, paying investors the highest return for this type of bond since May 1998 (including regular auctions). Tiny sale so not hugely significant in that sense. But a tangible sign of the potential cost of the Iran War on debt issuance?
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Jen Mercieca @jenmercieca.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
“Fascism does not, generally speaking, believe in the possibility or utility of perpetual peace...War alone keys up all human energies to their maximum tension and sets the seal of nobility on those peoples who have the courage to face it.” The Doctrine of Fascism, 1932.
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
A tax barrister sued me personally for £8m for libel after we linked him to a tax avoidance scheme. Today the High Court struck out the claim, granted summary judgment, and ruled it was a SLAPP. The judgment is highly critical.
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Dr Paul Dorfman @drpauldorfman.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Time to get a move on with the renewable evolution. www.newscientist.com/article/2518...
newscientist.com
Shift in the Gulf Stream could signal ocean current collapse
Models show that as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation gets weaker, the Gulf Stream will drift northwards. There are signs that this is already happening, and a more abrupt shift could wa...
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Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Anyone who wants Britain to join the war in Iran needs their head examined open.substack.com/pub/iandunt/...
open.substack.com
Anyone who wants Britain to join the war in Iran needs their head examined
They don't know what they want to achieve, why they're doing it or what the consequences might be. They are lost in the void.
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Neil Lewis @neil-lewis.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
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Warren Oates @warrenoates1.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
The first part of the statement covering background and what has happened.
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Ian Smith @iankmsmith.ft.com · 02/03/2026
Bonds are no port in this storm, as inflation fears intensify “We are seeing bonds again failing to provide protection against risk-off events, even as gold delivers,” said one HF investor www.ft.com/content/b4ad...
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Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
If you haven’t read it, Hillary Clinton’s opening statement is powerful stuff. open.substack.com/pub/borowitz...
open.substack.com
Hillary Destroys the Republicans
They’d soon regret sending her a subpoena.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Fantastic photo. Love them. See one or two who roam the hills at top of our road. They appear close to the main roads from time to time. Though the much larger Red Kites have also become quite a common site too. If you look.
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Alan Swallow @alanswallow.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
It affects me massively. Without it there is no one to care for my father in law who has dementia. And insufficient staff to pay for my state pension when it starts in near future. And my father’s death last year would have been a whole lot worse without the staffing of NHS that relies on them.
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