iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Jeremy Berg @jeremymberg.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

NSF Update Funding curve overall. A little bit of progress in the past week, but only a little bit. Now by Directorate... 1/11

A line curve showing number of awards for fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal years 2021-2025 across NSF. The fiscal year 2026 curve lies well below curves for other fiscal years.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

☹️ Takes ~5 days for the system to recover after a storm like that. Hopefully you’re able to get moving soon!

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

We argue that public investment in rail upgrades can address this—elsewhere, upgrades have improved safety, which has its own merits, but also reduce the need for railroads to change their operations in response to weather, relieving congestion.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

But it's not just that. Due to the fixed, network nature of railways, efforts to manage weather risk actually result in a congestion externality—propagating delays—with most delay coming from decisions at nearby stations. Here, that's "spatial lag" > 0:

A two-panel chart plotting rail delays against daily average temperature (°C). The top panel shows "Cumulative minutes of delay" categorized by spatial lag (0=purple, 10=teal, 20=yellow). Delays spike significantly in extreme cold (<-20°C) for higher cumulative lags, with the 20-lag series reaching ~150 minutes and the 10-lag series ~100 minutes. Between 0°C and 30°C, delays are near zero. Extreme heat (>30°C) shows a minor increase (under 30 minutes). The bottom histogram displays temperature frequency, showing that most station-days occur between 5°C and 25°C, making extreme temperatures rare.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

But there's good news: we also find that railroads are adapted to their local climate, might be learning from prior accidents, and change train speed and throughput (cancellations!) in response to weather. Sorry for the delay, it's because they care.

A coefficient plot with error bars showing the "Change in speed of Amtrak trains" (y-axis) across different bins of "Daily average temperature (°C)" (x-axis).

Extreme Cold: There is a significant reduction in train speed during extreme cold. At temperatures below -20°C, the speed change drops to approximately -2.2 miles per hour.

Moderate Temperatures: As temperatures rise from -20°C, the speed deficit gradually shrinks, reaching a baseline of 0 mph in the 15–20°C range.

Heat: In the 20–30°C range, there is again a decrease in speed (around -0.5 to -0.8 mph). However, for temperatures above 30°C, the data points show a positive change, indicating an increase in speed relative to the baseline.

Uncertainty: Error bars indicate the confidence intervals for each temperature bin, which are widest at the extremes (<-20°C and 30+°C).

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

Unsurprisingly, we find that exposure to extreme cold, heat, and rain increase accidents. But the magnitude surprised us: while rail is very safe overall, weather is responsible for 8–10% of accidents and related casualties—and railroads vastly underreport it as a cause.

A two-panel vertical chart sharing a horizontal axis labeled "Daily average temperature (°C)," divided into bins ranging from <-20°C to 30+°C.

Top Panel: A plot showing the "Percent change" in rail accidents compared to a baseline (10–15°C). Two data series are plotted with error bars:

Red (All rail accidents): Shows a sharp increase as temperatures drop, peaking at a 75% increase when temperatures are <-20°C. In hot weather (>30°C), the increase is smaller (below 10%).

Blue (Rail accidents with 1+ casualties): Rising to 65% at <-20°C. However, it shows a larger 25% increase at temperatures above 30°C.

Bottom Panel: A gray histogram showing the "Percent of county-days" for the corresponding temperature bins. The distribution indicates that extreme cold (<-10°C) and extreme heat (>30°C) are rare. Most county-days fall between 5°C and 25°C, a peak at 20–25°C.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 29/01/2026

Was your train delayed or cancelled this weekend? Mine was. Do you crave research that speaks to this particular experience? Look no further. In a new paper, @xinmingdu.bsky.social and I quantify how much rail safety and operations are affected by the weather.

A screenshot of the first page of the linked published article from the Journal of Public Economics.

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 01/12/2025

A study in Nature Climate Change quantifies the potential for extreme heat events in Europe to generate mass mortality and projects tens of thousands of excess deaths. go.nature.com/483zJc3 🧪

This is figure 2, which shows temperature–mortality relationship across Europe.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 16/12/2025

For those who want a figure! "... before 2003, sequencing a hot day after another hot day can nearly double the mortality effect of that hot day ... the compounding model yields an [Aug. 2003] death toll that is closer to the total ... than the standard model ..."

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

🚨The Moore Lab at UC Davis is hiring!🚨 Post-doc for a project with @adamsobel.bsky.social on the valuation of climate information for adaptation Could be a good fit for an environmental economist or a climate scientist - flexible start date and location Apply by Dec 1st: recruit.ucdavis.edu/JPF07346

recruit.ucdavis.edu

Postdoctoral Scholar - Environmental Science & Policy

University of California, Davis is hiring. Apply now!

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 16/09/2025

Mercifully averted @ivanhigueram.com's hypothetical LinkedIn version of this (... “Some look at the world as it is and ask why. We looked at environmental hazards and said… why not us?” 🌟 #ProudMoment #ChangeMakers #Humbled #ClimateWarriors #Innovation #Leadership #AtlasDrop). Check out the site!

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Kevin Carey @kevincareywb.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

Hsiang & Burke NYT op-ed on climate change (incl. citations]: "We predict that workers will become less productive, less happy & more prone to safety errors. Demands on public services will increase while the cost of servicing new debt will probably rise." www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...

nytimes.com

Opinion | We Study Climate Change. It Endangers You and Your Children.

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 27/06/2025

it is true, you have discovered my side gig

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Andrew Wilson @ajsw.info · 24/06/2025

Topically, OSHA is currently holding hearings about a proposed workplace heat exposure rule (www.osha.gov/heat-exposur...). Final rule will be out too late to protect people this summer, but weeks like this would be safer with a Federal backstop in the 43 states that don’t have their own standards.

osha.gov

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

NEW: The Trump administration proposes nearly $1.7 billion in cuts to NOAA that, if passed, could decimate weather and climate research, including funding to nine California institutions. The @sfchronicle.com has obtained a White House document detailing the proposed budget cuts. Read it here:

sfchronicle.com

'Five-alarm fire': Read the Trump proposal that could decimate climate research

NOAA grants provide funding to nine cooperative institutions in California. Several branches of the agency could lose hundreds of millions of dollars.

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Makoto Kelp @soa-mazing.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

🚨Preprint alert: Led by Karina Chung (an undergrad!), we develop a wildfire smoke risk index that accounts for historical burned area, fuel consumption, and customized land management in Google Earth Engine 🌎 A useful tool to weigh risk-outcome scenarios 🔥 eartharxiv.org/repository/v...

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Kyle Meng @kylemeng.com · 22/01/2025

Reupping this trade model run on 25% MEX, 25% CAN, and 10% PRC cross sector import tariffs. Because…they’re back!!!

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Emily Pontecorvo @emilypont.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Wildfire smoke routinely exceeds national air quality stds. Officials can seek exemptions for smoke events, but thats getting more complicated as smoke becomes more commonplace. They can also make steeper cuts to other sources of pollution — but that may not work if smoke events continue to ⬆️.

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Marshall Burke @marshallburke.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

New paper characterizing trends in wildfire smoke PM2.5 in the US, incl. updated daily dataset and implications for air quality regulation. Below is animation of 2023. Paper: eartharxiv.org/repository/v... Data (BETA version): www.stanfordecholab.com/wildfire_smoke Quick thread:

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Dr. Judith Scott-Clayton @jscottclayton.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

I was halfway home from the airport when this guerrilla poetry caught my eye on the M60 this evening. Fitting label for a city bus.

Photo from the inside of a city bus looking out, focused on the narrow windowsill, in which a label has been pasted reading “THIS MORTAL COIL” in all-caps. The label is red with raised white letters, like would be made from an old style label-maker one might have found at an elementary school in the 80s.

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Andrew B. Martinez @andrewbmartinez.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

My chapter together with @ajsw.info on "Forecasting the Macroeconomic Effects of Physical Climate Risk" has now been published in the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Sebastian Tello Trillo @sebastiantt.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

* Please Share * We are hiring a full-time two-year RA! (or pre-doc?). Very excited about this position because you could be paired to work with many awesome economists at Batten (Ben Castleman, Andrew Simon, Derek Wu, Tim Layton) and myself! More info down here 👇 jobs.virginia.edu/us/en/job/R0...

jobs.virginia.edu

Pre-Doctoral Associate, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America | Research at University of Virginia

Apply for Pre-Doctoral Associate, Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of Virginia job with University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America. Re...

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

Even if they weren't so deadly, climate change increasing the habitable area for mosquitoes is terrible because they are extremely annoying.

Infographic of The World's Deadliest Animals showing Number of people killed by animals per year. Mosquito is first at 725,000, followed by human at 475,000. Then it's snake (50,000), dog (25,000), and then a bunch of animals at 10,000 or below: tsetse fly, assassin bug, freshwater snail, ascaris roundworm, tapeworm, crocodile, hippo, elephant, lion, wolf, shark.

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Adjusting energy assistance programs to cover heat-protective spending as well as cold-protective spending is a no-brainer adaptation strategy

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Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 23/10/2024

To all economics PhD applicants, we would like to draw your attention to the PhD in Sustainable Development at Columbia University. The PhD is for economists and scientists interested in issues related to the environment, climate change, energy, development, poverty, health, transport, inequality..

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 25/09/2024

120 CEA alumni urge congressional action to support the Current Population Survey. Grateful to Bernanke, Boskin, Furman, Heckman, Hubbard, Stiglitz & so many others for speaking up. 📉📈 #️⃣#️⃣ www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2024...

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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 21/12/2023

The Center for Business and Public Policy at the Gies College of Business is hiring a post-doc in environmental/health economics. Come work with me and David Molitor! Apply by Jan 15 for full consideration. illinois.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

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Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 20/12/2023

Well, hydrogen friends waiting for the 45V guidance, I have some very bad news for you. California is proposing to extend its biogas / RNG loopholes for hydrogen production through 2045. See pp. 29-31 of the staff ISOR, available as part of the LCFS proposal that dropped yesterday.

ww2.arb.ca.gov

Low Carbon Fuel Standard | California Air Resources Board

Accessibility Consistent with California Government Code section 7296.2, documents posted to this webpage may be made available in an alternate format or another language. Disability-related reasona...

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Noah Kaufman @noahqkaufman.bsky.social · 21/11/2023

Briefing Book is an awesome new econ policy newsletter by former White House CEA staffers. I'm grateful they let me write a post about how the Circular A-4 update will improve analysis of climate regs, www.briefingbook.info/p/the-new-ci...

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Reposted by Andrew Wilson

John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 16/11/2023

Taylor Swift as Figure 29.14 (salmon)

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Eric Verhoogen @ericverhoogen.bsky.social · 15/11/2023

Hiring committees, take note!

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