iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 1h

Most Europeans would support a UK return to the EU • French and Italian voters are least enthusiastic, but they still broadly approve of potential UK return • Potential UK referendum could complicate talks; EU officials would be wary of investing time in talks for nothing www.ft.com/content/3d43...

104820

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 5h

France has no issue placing debt, but it does so at an increasingly soaring cost • Yields on ten-year bonds stand at 4.9%, their highest level since 2002 and far above Germany's • France pays more to borrow than Greece and Italy; ongoing budget drama could make things worse

1174

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 02/10/2026

Global grain prices are surging • Intensifying fighting in Black Sea, disruptions to fertiliser shipments through Hormuz and extreme weather fuel prices • India just registered weakest monsoon season in a decade, threatening harvests and raising food-price risks www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

02610

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 02/10/2026

Chinese firms dominate market for battery energy storage • Ten largest firms in the field are Chinese; combined, they account for 83% of global shipments • China’s battery storage capacity expanded from 2.4GW in 2020 to more than 140GW at end-2025 www.ft.com/content/b847...

0103

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 02/10/2026

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

090

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026

Five biggest hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle - could issue $1trn of new debt by 2030 • So far this year investors have provided $500bn of financing to AI-linked firms • Surge in big tech borrowing could complicate financing plans of other firms www.ft.com/content/00f9...

494

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026

Despite sanctions, US exports to Cuba are booming • US firms have shipped 850,000 barrels of fuel (mostly gasoline) to Cuba since Feb. • US allows trade with Cuba’s nascent private sector to head off humanitarian crisis & displace regime as primary supplier of goods www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

0103

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026

India's education system is failing vast majority of kids • India withdrew from global PISA assessment in 2009, when it ranked 73rd out of 74 countries • Only 7% of graduates find job within a year because of huge gap between number of graduates and number of jobs www.economist.com/asia/2026/09...

0153

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026

Drop in price of solar panels is fuelling installations across the world • Installed solar capacity totalled 1.2TW worldwide at end-2025, or three times global nuclear power fleet • China leads the way, accounting for nearly half of global solar capacity www.ft.com/content/8b70...

1177

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026

Five largest hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle - could invest $800bn this year • Capex plans focus on AI, but current estimated AI revenue remains below break-even • AI users would need to spend $1trn/year for hyperscalers to generate returns www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1103

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026

Vast majority of Chinese children do not enrol in global PISA test • China only enrols pupils from Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang (BSJZ) to PISA • After adjusting for this, score for China as a whole for maths could stand around 536, or 4th place globally www.economist.com/china/2026/0...

0133

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026

Hyperscalers' borrowing costs now stand above those of US high-quality firms • Borrowing costs started to climb in September 2025 amid massive wave of debt issuance • Higher costs reflect concerns around emergence of AI bubble; hyperscalers plan Capex of US$800bn this year www.ft.com/content/00f9...

060

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026

Exhibit A is cars: after accounting for Brexit, in 2015-25 EU car exports worldwide were flat :) EU car exports to China fell, but EU firms managed to re-orient towards other markets.

041

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026

Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown • Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports • China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3% www.economist.com/business/202...

23221

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026

Indonesian island of Karimun has become hub for Russian oil exports to Asia • Karimun terminal acts as entry point for Russian oil heading to Asia - with new Indonesian origin • Data show how sanctions policy is constant game of whack 'a mole to close loopholes www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

01812

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026

Anthropic's AI models are proving increasingly popular • On net basis Claude is model that people would like to use more the most; Grok's prospects are much less positive • Data do not account for Chat-GPT Astra 6 release, which may have changed picture in OpenAI's favour www.ft.com/content/01a7...

060

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026

Politicians are increasingly using AI to prepare speeches • Across English-speaking legislatures, heaviest AI-users are Australian and Canadian MPs, while US senators use it least • Voters dislike AI use for speeches more than for any other sort of political writing www.economist.com/britain/2026...

071

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026

Russia is expanding uranium mining operations • Russia produced 5% of global uranium output domestically in 2024; share rises to 25% when accounting for Russian overseas mines • Rosatom aims at controlling entire supply chain, from mining uranium to running nuclear plants www.ft.com/content/b711...

0182

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026

AI-fuelled tech sector now accounts for more than half of the S&P500 market capitalisation • Hyperscalers are biggest bond issuers and major infrastructure projects are mostly data centres • Even Treasuries are part of AI trade as extra power demand fuels inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

1167

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026

KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist

0102

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026

Russia's crude output dropped in August for ninth consecutive month • August output was 1.2m b/d below level agreed with OPEC+ • Drop reflects impact of Ukrainian strikes on refineries/export infrastructure, forcing cuts to crude output for lack of storage capacity www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

063

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026

Russia's sanctions-busting cryptocurrency network A7 (and its currency A7A5) keeps growing • Network had $93bn turnover in 2025, with most transactions linked to China and Hong Kong • A7A5 holders can convert coins into US dollar-pegged stablecoins instantly, with no KYC www.ft.com/content/3848...

197

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026

Revenues of most US firms present in China have been stagnating since 2023 • Data reflect fierce local competition and sluggishness of Chinese economy • Amid low returns, many US firms have stopped investing into China and are shrinking operations www.economist.com/business/202...

093

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026

On top of Hormuz, Black Sea blockade threatens food supply shock • Grain supplies have been choked off since July as war in Ukraine escalates into attacks on ports, grain terminals, vessels • Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

1134

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026

Ahead of IPO, US$2trn valuation for Anthropic is not far-fetched • In August firm expected US$65bn in revenues on annualised basis; some investors bet on annual revenues of US$320bn by end-year • Only 18 months ago, Anthropic expected 2027 revenue to stand at just US$12bn www.ft.com/content/01a7...

071

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026

Democrats appear on track for huge victory in US midterms • The Economist's modelling gives Democrats 93% chance of flipping the House of Representatives • Rise in petrol prices is key driver of Democrats’ move into landslide territory www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

0130

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026

So far AI could be a net job creator, but impact is uneven across sectors • In America roughly 1% of jobs—or around 1m positions—are now directly related to AI rollout • Most job creations are linked to software or maths; meanwhile, administrative-support sector could shed 752,000 jobs in US by 2035

3156

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 17/07/2026

China’s working-age population – those aged 16 to 59 – is contracting • In 2025 that age group made up 61% of total population, down from >70% a decade earlier • Ratio of working-age people to those over 65 – currently about 4:1 – could halve within two decades www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1101

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 17/07/2026

Turkey's defence industry is booming and eyes EU markets • Over half of Turkey’s US$10bn of defence exports went to Nato countries last year • Turkey has long strived for self-sufficiency in defence; state backing for firms is funnelled via special off-budget defence fund www.ft.com/content/cf39...

030

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 16/07/2026

China is betting hard on industrial robots • In 2024 Chinese firms installed more than half (54%) of world robots, and it accounts for 43% of global stock • Robotics shift will help with shrinking population, but it could also kill jobs fast - thus weighing on consumption www.ft.com/content/c873...

183

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 16/07/2026

Europe is building fewer cars and many of them are actually Chinese • Years of subsidies have left EU with more carmakers than market can support • Tariffs aimed at slowing rise in imports of Chinese EVs, but instead they created incentives to set up shop in EU www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

0134

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 16/07/2026

At purchasing-power parity, China’s R&D spending surpassed America’s in 2024 • China's R&D spending grew by ~10% per year over past decade (vs. ~5% in US) • Chinese researchers now publish as many papers as their American, British, German and Japanese peers combined www.economist.com/interactive/...

0136

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 15/07/2026

China could be leading the next big tech revolution after AI: quantum computing • Chinese institutions publish around two-thirds of global patents related to quantum • Quantum computers could solve some AI problems faster, reducing the energy costs associated to regular AI www.ft.com/content/7e46...

0114

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 15/07/2026

China's real estate sector looks nowhere near out of the woods • Home prices have dropped by~30% nationwide compared to their 2021 peak • Homeowners are often unable to sell without taking a loss, while heavily indebted developers are saddled with unsold flats www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

172

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 15/07/2026

AI models tend to be extremely secular and liberal (unless they’re Chinese) • Worldview of ChatGPT is more secular than average in any country • China's models are mandated to “uphold core socialist values” and are barred from contradicting official narratives www.economist.com/briefing/202...

1105

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 13/07/2026

Hormuz crisis has exposed fragility of Europe's jet fuel supplies • Home countries of carriers like Ryanair (IE), British Airways, Air France, Lufthansa (DE), Easyjet (UK) are net importers • In May the UK issued allowed imports of jet fuel made from Russian oil www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

1114

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 13/07/2026

In developed economies, majority of population thinks AI regulation matters more than fast rollout • US export controls on American frontier models would deal blow to US AI firms • G7 co-operation on AI is extremely thin, and collaboration with China virtually non-existent www.ft.com/content/16ac...

092

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 13/07/2026

In US Chinese firms are divesting clean-energy assets at fire-sale prices • Since 2025 Chinese firms have cancelled or sold renewables projects worth US$9bn, at discounts of up to 40% • In 2025 change in US tax law aimed at reducing Chinese presence in clean energy www.economist.com/china/2026/0...

0110

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 03/07/2026

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

180

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 02/07/2026

Quantum computing could be next tech boom after AI • Google and IBM target delivery of useful machines by 2030, focusing on highly-advanced applications • Quantum and AI are interlinked, as quantum devices could help to generate new data for AI models to learn from www.ft.com/content/7e46...

2101

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/07/2026

Chinese AI models are just a few months behind American ones • GLM 5.2, DeepSeek V4 pro and Kimi K2.6 are almost as good as Opus 4.8 and ChatGPT 5.5 • China's advanced models are about ten times cheaper than their US competitors, outlining China's "good enough" bet www.economist.com/china/2026/0...

0104

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/06/2026

Most AI models lean sharply left (even Grok) • Apart from DeepSeek V3.2, they all strongly favour affirmative action for women and minorities • Grok is more centrist than others on economic matters, but it is socially just as liberal as the rest www.economist.com/briefing/202...

1155

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/06/2026

Combined with debt rise, drop in Chinese birth rate will put pressure on next generations • Shrinking population will hit consumption and Beijing’s ability to repay debt from 2040s • China is betting on robots to make up for lost labour force, but shift may also kill jobs www.ft.com/content/c873...

060

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/06/2026

Russia's diesel production is dropping amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries • Oil-products output plunged by 13.5% year on year in May after 9.1% decline in April • Two-thirds of regions report shortages or fuel rationing, lifting gasoline prices and inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

0145

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/06/2026

Coming El Niño could be strongest ever, further lifting global temperatures • Forecasts for rest of 2026/early 2027 suggest rise in Pacific sea-surface temperatures of 2.5-3°C • That would be unprecedented in 75 years for which scientists have been keeping records www.economist.com/science-and-...

0102

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 26/06/2026

Ukrainian drone strikes are having huge toll on Russian refineries • At least two-thirds of regions are reporting shortages, with many introducing rationing - a red flag for social stability • Russia's oil products output dropped by 13.5% year on year in May www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

13918

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 26/06/2026

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

093

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/06/2026

China is quietly winning global AI race • Chinese models are not far behind US ones performance-wise, and they are 30-60 times cheaper • Many firms could choose good-enough Chinese AI instead of expensive (and seemingly unreliable after Fable 5 export controls) US models www.ft.com/content/1d37...

3229

Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/06/2026

China's gross fixed capital formation officially dropped by 0.8% in 2025 for first time since 1989 • Decline could reflect under-reporting, as well as possible data revisions • Xi called for crackdown on excessive industrial competition, hitting out at "wasteful spending" www.ft.com/content/7db7...

0153