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Agathe Demarais

@agathedemarais.com
5.9K followers 950 following 1.1K posts

Geoeconomics @ecfr.eu • Columnist @foreignpolicy.com Permanent advisor, French MFA • Author, Backfire @columbiaup.bsky.social Global economy, trade wars, economic statecraft, geopolitics of AI, fine tea 🍵 💌 agathe.demarais@ecfr.eu | 🖥️ agathedemarais.com

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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 5h
Global grain prices are surging • Intensifying fighting in Black Sea, disruptions to fertiliser shipments through Hormuz and extreme weather fuel prices • India just registered weakest monsoon season in a decade, threatening harvests and raising food-price risks www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 9h
Chinese firms dominate market for battery energy storage • Ten largest firms in the field are Chinese; combined, they account for 83% of global shipments • China’s battery storage capacity expanded from 2.4GW in 2020 to more than 140GW at end-2025 www.ft.com/content/b847...
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Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 9h
How is AI changing the nature of economic research? And how should we think about the stuff being put out by the AI labs? New episode of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes, feat. @AraKharazian.bsky.social (Ramp), @Peter-McCrory.bsky.social (Anthropic) and @JBurnMurdoch.ft.com pod.fo/e/67c394
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 13h
KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026
Five biggest hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle - could issue $1trn of new debt by 2030 • So far this year investors have provided $500bn of financing to AI-linked firms • Surge in big tech borrowing could complicate financing plans of other firms www.ft.com/content/00f9...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026
Despite sanctions, US exports to Cuba are booming • US firms have shipped 850,000 barrels of fuel (mostly gasoline) to Cuba since Feb. • US allows trade with Cuba’s nascent private sector to head off humanitarian crisis & displace regime as primary supplier of goods www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Henry Foy @henryjfoy.ft.com · 01/10/2026
Donald Trump and US Big Tech CEOs like to dismiss Brussels as a useless, irrelevant & incompetent regulator But, as @lauramdubois.ft.com reveals in this brilliant investigation, Americans are spending far more time & money lobbying EU institutions than European rivals... as.ft.com/r/ce01e257-7...
as.ft.com
Big Tech out-lobbies European companies in Brussels
US corporations including Google, Apple and Amazon use their influence to push back against EU digital bloc rules
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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I think @politico.eu have got this totally wrong. Creating a product that is actually worse than Teams implies a certain creative genius www.politico.eu/article/eu-m...
politico.eu
‘Absolute s–t’: EU’s Microsoft Teams alternative draws bad reviews from officials
The U.S. would “instantly” win a hypothetical tech war, an official moaned.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 01/10/2026
India's education system is failing vast majority of kids • India withdrew from global PISA assessment in 2009, when it ranked 73rd out of 74 countries • Only 7% of graduates find job within a year because of huge gap between number of graduates and number of jobs www.economist.com/asia/2026/09...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026
Drop in price of solar panels is fuelling installations across the world • Installed solar capacity totalled 1.2TW worldwide at end-2025, or three times global nuclear power fleet • China leads the way, accounting for nearly half of global solar capacity www.ft.com/content/8b70...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026
Five largest hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle - could invest $800bn this year • Capex plans focus on AI, but current estimated AI revenue remains below break-even • AI users would need to spend $1trn/year for hyperscalers to generate returns www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🚨🚨 @coe.int of Europe said yesterday that the #US formally notified it that it would leave the Group of States against Corruption, or #GRECO. Only two other countries have left GRECO before — #Russia and #Belarus. The fall of the #US on the world scene is striking. apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
US withdraws from European anti-corruption panel in latest shift away from global groups
The Trump administration has withdrawn the United States from a top European anti-corruption watchdog.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 30/09/2026
Vast majority of Chinese children do not enrol in global PISA test • China only enrols pupils from Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang (BSJZ) to PISA • After adjusting for this, score for China as a whole for maths could stand around 536, or 4th place globally www.economist.com/china/2026/0...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Hyperscalers' borrowing costs now stand above those of US high-quality firms • Borrowing costs started to climb in September 2025 amid massive wave of debt issuance • Higher costs reflect concerns around emergence of AI bubble; hyperscalers plan Capex of US$800bn this year www.ft.com/content/00f9...
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Those who actually study the numbers are deeply sceptical of the China Shock 2.0 narrative taking over the EU. But heck, why let the facts or indeed the absence of any actual strategy get in the way of a really good panic?
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Exhibit A is cars: after accounting for Brexit, in 2015-25 EU car exports worldwide were flat :) EU car exports to China fell, but EU firms managed to re-orient towards other markets.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
The data do not support this - For the US, re-routing via connector countries like Vietnam is clear. For Europe there is no such a trend. - EU exports to China are not plummeting. After accounting for Brexit, the EU’s market share for China's import bill fell by just 0.9 percentage point in 2015–25.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown • Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports • China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3% www.economist.com/business/202...
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bill Gates says getting countries to agree on AI regulations will be harder than Cold War-era nuclear negotiations www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...
nbcnews.com
Bill Gates says getting countries to agree on AI regulations will be harder than Cold War-era nuclear negotiations
The Microsoft co-founder said he believes governments should be involved in monitoring what AI does and that it won’t slow down the industry’s progress.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Indonesian island of Karimun has become hub for Russian oil exports to Asia • Karimun terminal acts as entry point for Russian oil heading to Asia - with new Indonesian origin • Data show how sanctions policy is constant game of whack 'a mole to close loopholes www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"While public companies routinely outline product risks to investors, few, if ​any, have issued warnings suggesting their technology could cause potential human extinction." www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic warns AI may pose 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO filing
It's an extraordinary warning by a company seeking to profit from the same technology.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
@chiara-malaponti.bsky.social and I will soon publish a full policy brief with more such data on the topic 😊 (and many toher topics)
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 29/09/2026
Mainstream narrative of China shock decimating EU industry may be overblown • Over past decade, China accounted for just one quarter of growth in bloc's extra-EU imports • China's share of EU’s imports has barely moved over past decade, rising from 20.5% to 22.3% www.economist.com/business/202...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Indonesian island of Karimun has become hub for Russian oil exports to Asia • Karimun terminal acts as entry point for Russian oil heading to Asia - with new Indonesian origin • Data show how sanctions policy is constant game of whack 'a mole to close loopholes www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...
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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I struggled to finish reading this important and horrifying reporting www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
The Babies Left Behind in America
The United States is deporting parents without their children, creating a whole new family-separation crisis.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Anthropic's AI models are proving increasingly popular • On net basis Claude is model that people would like to use more the most; Grok's prospects are much less positive • Data do not account for Chat-GPT Astra 6 release, which may have changed picture in OpenAI's favour www.ft.com/content/01a7...
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ukraine's $27 billion deficit has been cut to $20 billion after tough savings, Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky says. "We have not yet found a way to cover these expenses. This is not news. This is not additional money. This is what Ukraine talked about at the beginning of this year."
interfax.com.ua
Корецький: ми поки що не знайшли покриття ще $20 млрд видатків
Прем'єр-міністр України Сергій Корецький заявив, що заявлений дефіцит фінансування у $27 млрд стосується $155 млрд, про які Україна заявила на початку року, як потреба на війну, але його вже вдалося с...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 28/09/2026
Politicians are increasingly using AI to prepare speeches • Across English-speaking legislatures, heaviest AI-users are Australian and Canadian MPs, while US senators use it least • Voters dislike AI use for speeches more than for any other sort of political writing www.economist.com/britain/2026...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
Russia is expanding uranium mining operations • Russia produced 5% of global uranium output domestically in 2024; share rises to 25% when accounting for Russian overseas mines • Rosatom aims at controlling entire supply chain, from mining uranium to running nuclear plants www.ft.com/content/b711...
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NEW: The big story is not Chinese EVs everywhere —but Chinese EV factories everywhere. And its not just Chinese firms going out. Our CM-FDI database tracks every foreign Solar, Wind, EV and battery manufacturing plant built in 21st century. cmfdi.netzeropolicylab.com
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Dean Baker @deanbaker13.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Great story of AI productivity! It has created an arms race for insurers and providers try to squeeze money out of the government and/or patients. Let's put JD Vance's fraud task force on the case :)
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
AI-fuelled tech sector now accounts for more than half of the S&P500 market capitalisation • Hyperscalers are biggest bond issuers and major infrastructure projects are mostly data centres • Even Treasuries are part of AI trade as extra power demand fuels inflation www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 25/09/2026
KAL's cartoon in this week's The Economist
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Russia's crude output dropped in August for ninth consecutive month • August output was 1.2m b/d below level agreed with OPEC+ • Drop reflects impact of Ukrainian strikes on refineries/export infrastructure, forcing cuts to crude output for lack of storage capacity www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · 24/09/2026
Please excuse me while I scream into a cushion at the thought of ALL the articles I had to write on the "UK productivity puzzle" in the 2010s www.ft.com/content/c819...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
This @foreignpolicy.com column on A7/A7A5 had been one of my favourites, research and rabbit holing-wise bsky.app/profile/agat...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
bsky.app/profile/agat...
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George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here's today's column on the astonishing, ongoing mistreatment of people with #ME/CFS. Please spread it far and wide: the only thing which can break the media's wall of indifference is seeing an article about the issue go viral. Thank you. 1/2 www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Abandoned, dismissed and gaslighted: there is no excuse for the way ME sufferers have been betrayed | George Monbiot
Changes in guidance and science seem to have little impact on millions of devastated lives. It’s a social crisis playing out behind closed doors, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Russia's sanctions-busting cryptocurrency network A7 (and its currency A7A5) keeps growing • Network had $93bn turnover in 2025, with most transactions linked to China and Hong Kong • A7A5 holders can convert coins into US dollar-pegged stablecoins instantly, with no KYC www.ft.com/content/3848...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/09/2026
Revenues of most US firms present in China have been stagnating since 2023 • Data reflect fierce local competition and sluggishness of Chinese economy • Amid low returns, many US firms have stopped investing into China and are shrinking operations www.economist.com/business/202...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
On top of Hormuz, Black Sea blockade threatens food supply shock • Grain supplies have been choked off since July as war in Ukraine escalates into attacks on ports, grain terminals, vessels • Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
What happened when English communities delayed children's smartphones? Mental-health needs and child psych disability claims both fell by 6-8% with effects accumulating over time. From @greg-veramendi.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
Smartphones and children's mental health | Institute for Fiscal Studies
This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on delaying children’s smartphone ownership through a community-led policy.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
Ahead of IPO, US$2trn valuation for Anthropic is not far-fetched • In August firm expected US$65bn in revenues on annualised basis; some investors bet on annual revenues of US$320bn by end-year • Only 18 months ago, Anthropic expected 2027 revenue to stand at just US$12bn www.ft.com/content/01a7...
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I did an analysis of Russian and Ukrainian grain export data for the 2026-2027 season. When comparing to the prior 2025-2026 grain export season Ukraine's grain exports decreased noticeably but Russian grain exports outright collapsed.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet warheads supplied 10% of US power. Today, Russia remains America's #1 supplier of nuclear fuel. For @foreignpolicy.com I explore why a 2024 import ban on Russian uranium is theatre and how Moscow makes the most of its leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Tom Hancock @tomhancock.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
"When it comes to brain gain vs. brain drain, the United States saw a net gain of +2,145 (AI) researchers in 2025 while China registered a net loss of -1,729 researchers" carnegieendowment.org/china/featur...
carnegieendowment.org
Who’s Ahead in the Global AI Talent Race?
The United States and China are extending their lead in producing and attracting top AI talent. At the same time, Asia ex-China is rising while Europe falters.
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 23/09/2026
Democrats appear on track for huge victory in US midterms • The Economist's modelling gives Democrats 93% chance of flipping the House of Representatives • Rise in petrol prices is key driver of Democrats’ move into landslide territory www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 22/09/2026
In 1995-2013 uranium from 20,000 Soviet nuclear weapons supplied 10% of US electricity. Despite a 2024 import ban, Russia remains America's top supplier of nuclear fuel - for @foreignpolicy.com I explore how the ban is theatre and where Moscow's leverage really lies foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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Chris Cook @chriscook.news · 21/09/2026
A big new story from us: a big new leak means that we can put numbers on the scale of A7 -- the Kremlin's huge money-laundering machine. $6.9bn laundered through the international banking system via SWIFT, with $1.1bn sent to StanChart alone. www.ft.com/content/3848...
ft.com
Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks
FT finds thousands of Russian payments handled by Standard Chartered, Citigroup and other international groups in vast leak from inside fintech A7
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 22/09/2026
More than a decade after Megatons to Megawatts came to an end, U.S. nuclear power plants still run on Russian uranium, writes columnist @agathedemarais.com. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/21/u...
foreignpolicy.com
Nuclear Energy Is the Kremlin’s Latest Leverage Over Washington
The United States has done little to end its dependence on Russia for enriched uranium.
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