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adnanm.bsky.social

@adnanm.bsky.social
20 followers 46 following 2 posts
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 14/09/2026
The Iran war has damaged the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, & UAE, which have made ambitious investment commitments to the US. The war has weakened their finances, growth prospects, & trust in US security guarantees. The question now is whether, & how, the countries will implement commitments.
piie.com
The Iran war is raising doubts over Trump’s "America First" foreign investment goal
The Iran war has damaged the economies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, which have made ambitious investment commitments to the United States. The war has weakened their finances, growth prospects...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 15/06/2026
Treasury is the more appropriate lending conduit for dollar liquidity when geopolitical concerns dominate, while Fed dollar provision should primarily be targeted toward global stability objectives & be more insulated from short-term foreign policy motives, Adnan Mazarei & Maurice Obstfeld write.
piie.com
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence
Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Latest Must Read from PIIE's Adnan Mazarei and Maurice Obstfeld: Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
Taking geopolitically motivated US swap lines too far would harm the dollar and Fed independence
Over the past century, the United States has provided dollar liquidity abroad through both the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, but the appropriate mode of liquidity injection depends on the econo...
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 24/03/2026
LISTEN: @adnanm.bsky.social explores with @mdebolle.com the ramifications of another war in Iran; what it means for oil, natural gas, & other critical input markets; & how it might affect environmental efforts & the green transition. Here or wherever you get podcasts:
piie.com
How the war on Iran exposes global economic interconnectedness (Episode 29)
The war against Iran by the United States and Israel has spread turmoil through oil and natural gas markets, spiking prices and threatening the world economy. How will the war impact the global econom...
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Join us on March 25 for an exciting discussion of the role critical minerals play in shaping Brazil-US economic economic relations featuring @mdebolle.com, Pedro Guerra (MDIC) and Bruna Santos @ Inter-American Dialogue!
piie.com
How critical are critical minerals in the Brazil-US economic relationship?
Policymakers and experts discuss the role of critical minerals in shaping the Brazil-US economic partnership, examining Brazil's economic situation, the importance of critical minerals to both Brazil ...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/03/2026
Petrochemical firm owners concentrate among corporations, geographically in China, the US, & Saudi Arabia—but ownership ≠ control. Chinese & other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors have limited control from passive investments. Saudi Arabia fully controls its investments.
piie.com
Who controls the global petrochemical industry, and how might that change?
Petrochemicals—used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines—are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energ...
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 17/02/2026
The Trump administration's "America First" investment agreements with trading partners are effectively an industrial policy that is ironically aligned with Biden-era initiatives such as the CHIPS & Science Act. #PIIECharts More: www.piie.com/research/pii...
The Trump administration wants foreign investment pledges to boost several sectors that Biden targeted
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 29/01/2026
Countries in Trump's "America First" investment agenda vary in ability to fulfill pledges. Switzerland & Japan appear relatively well positioned. Yet some Gulf Cooperation Council countries appear less likely to meet the pledge without adjusting external balances. #PIIECharts
Some countries will struggle to fulfill their investment pledges to President Trump
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 03/02/2026
The deals with foreign countries pledging to invest in the US suffer from a lack of clarity on investment timing & decision-making process, raising doubts over politicization of investment decisions & whether the countries can fulfill them.
piie.com
America First investment pledges: Big numbers but uncertain results
In July 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced "a strategic realignment of the US-Japan economic relationship,” including a Japanese commitment to invest $550 billion to “rebuild and expand core American industries” in projects to be approved by Trum...
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Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Latest from PIIE's Mazarei and Auclair: The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic? (Spoiler Alert: May be less than meets the eye) www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?
In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump’s “America First” agenda, the administration has engaged in high-level bilateral negotiations with allies and partners to encourage them to invest in US industr...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 14/01/2026
“This was a very well-connected bank, corrupt etc., which underscored the banking system in itself is a channel for enrichment of the well-connected,” Adnan Mazarei says. The bank failure added to “a crescendo of the loss of legitimacy of the regime following the Israeli attack.”
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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 14/01/2026
A Tehran bank collapsed under the weight of bad loans to regime cronies. For some ordinary Iranians, it was the last straw.
on.wsj.com
The Obscure Bank Collapse That Sent Iran Into a Tailspin
Bad loans to regime cronies brought down Ayandeh Bank, accelerating a long-running financial crisis.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking. Non-partisan take: Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out). www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Vali Nasr @valinasr.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
My interview with Novara media on what has motivated Iran and where the revolution is heading. youtu.be/jNHto1eQtSQ?...
youtu.be
Everything You’re Told About Iran Is Wrong | Aaron Bastani Meets Vali Nasr
YouTube video by Novara Media
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 28/07/2025
ICYMI: Adnan Mazarei joined PIIE Insider LIVE to explain what it will take to rebuild Syria's economy, what's going on with oil markets in the Middle East, & more. Watch here or listen wherever you get your podcasts:
piie.com
The latest on Middle East economies: Syria, oil markets, and more
Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, and Adnan Mazarei, PIIE nonresident senior fellow and a former deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, hold a live, virtua...
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 22/07/2025
JULY 24: Adnan Mazarei joins PIIE Insider LIVE to discuss rebuilding Syria's economy, what's happening with oil markets in the Middle East, & more. Register to watch & ask questions live or subscribe to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get your podcasts to listen anytime: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
PIIE Insider LIVE
July 24, 11:00-11:30 AM ET
Register at piie.com/events

The latest on Middle East economies: Syria, oil markets, and more

Featuring
Adnan Mazarei 
Nonresident Senior Fellow, PIIE; former Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, International Monetary Fund

Hosted by 
Anjali V. Bhatt
Communications Manager and Research Fellow, PIIE
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 05/04/2025
"This is bad news for the US and its trading partners. But the biggest impact on quality of life will be in developing countries that account for a small part of the US trade deficit." Brian Webster & @charlesjkenny.bsky.social on US tariffs & developing countries:
bit.ly
The New US Tariff Regime Will Have Its Greatest Impact in Developing Countries
Yesterday, President Trump announced a sweeping change to US trade policy, imposing tariffs larger than those enacted under the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that helped deepen the Great Depression. US…
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Indy Auntie @indyauntie.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Sovereign wealth fund plans appear to be taking shape. Color me skeptical that this won't end up as a Trump slush fund, probably separate from Congressional decision-making and oversight, funded by tariffs passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices.
The fund is expected to be backed by revenue from the so-called External Revenue Service, an agency Trump wants to create to handle income generated from tariffs on foreign imports, one of the sources said.

The Commerce Department, Grimes and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The details, which have not been previously reported, highlight that plans for the sovereign wealth fund are beginning to take shape, despite questions about the feasibility of such an investment vehicle.Trump has previously said the proposed fund could be financed by "tariffs and other intelligent things."

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency collects import duties, taxes and fees, with the money flowing daily into the U.S. Treasury's operating cash balance. For the fiscal year ended September 30, the agency collected $88.07 billion of these revenues, compared with $92.3 billion a year earlier and $111.8 billion in 2022 - a year that was marked by high COVID-era purchases of imported goods.

Adnan Mazarei, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, raised concerns about future rules dictating what investments the fund can make and who will hold its managers accountable.

“I am concerned whether investment decisions will be properly made in a commercial way without risk of corruption,” he said.
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adnanm.bsky.social @adnanm.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
www.piie.com/blogs/realti... Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult give that Iran and Russia are the principal creditors.
piie.com
Syria needs a debt restructuring, but that will be difficult
The author is grateful to Lee Buchheit, Anna Gelpern, and Sean Hagan for very helpful discussions of some of the legal aspects of restructurings, and to Rabah Arezki, Tim Willems, and several PIIE col...
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Douglas Irwin @douglasirwin.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Unfortunately not an uncommon problem . . . as Mazarei, Obstfeld, and I have written about -> www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Fixation with fixed exchange rates harms developing countries
In recent months, a rash of crises has beset developing countries around the world.
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Reposted by @adnanm.bsky.social
Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem, writes PIIE's Adnan Mazeri www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem
The Trump administration has called for the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund (SWF) (White House 2025) by early 2026. The president also suggested that TikTok would make an attractive investment target for such a fund. He directed the secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce Departments working with the director of the Office of Management and Budget to deliver a plan for a US SWF within 90 days.
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 12/02/2025
Without robust governance, a US sovereign wealth fund is more likely to divert funds from one area to another & crowd out, not mobilize, new private investments. It risks large-scale distortions & capture by special interests & could well increase US public debt. Read: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Photo illustration shows US currency. 
RealTime Economics
A US sovereign wealth fund? A confused solution to an undefined problem
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Egypt tends to face a currency crisis once a decade, the latest was 2022-24 I agree with @adnanm.bsky.social's piece that risks to its post-crisis economy remain: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Political instability threats 3. Higher global yields under Trump www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
project-syndicate.org
Egypt’s Economic Crisis May Not Be Over | by Adnan Mazarei - Project Syndicate
Adnan Mazarei urges the international community to push for long-overdue governance and economic reforms.
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Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
While the international community must maintain its financial support for Egypt, pushing the authorities to implement long-overdue governance and economic reforms is equally, if not more, important, argues @piie.com’s Adnan Mazarei. bit.ly/3CBJW3K
bit.ly
Egypt’s Economic Crisis May Not Be Over | by Adnan Mazarei - Project Syndicate
Adnan Mazarei urges the international community to push for long-overdue governance and economic reforms.
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adnanm.bsky.social @adnanm.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
My interview with Bloomberg Asharq on the reconstruction of Syria (in Arabic) now.asharq.com/clip/50-%D9%...
now.asharq.com
50% من البنية التحتية السورية معطلة.. والاقتصاد ينتظر الدعم - الشرق مع Bloomberg
تتطلب إعادة إعمار سوريا تمويلا بين 250 و300 مليار دولار، مع تضرر البنية التحتية بنسبة 68%. دعم الكهرباء والزراعة ضروري لتحريك عجلة الاقتصاد.. شاهد عبر الشرق NOW.
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