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Ziad Daoud

@ziaddaoud.bsky.social
694 followers 61 following 1.4K posts

Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Views are mine.

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Reposted by Ziad Daoud
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 27/08/2026
To survive an era of increased disorder, Middle Eastern countries “will have to rethink how they relate to the wider world—and, most important, to each other,” write @beccawasser.bsky.social, Dina Esfandiary, and @ziaddaoud.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Impossible Middle East
After the Iran war, the region has no good options.
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Reposted by Ziad Daoud
Andrew Farrand @afarrand.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Great overview from @ziaddaoud.bsky.social of how the MENA region's rentier model goes beyond oil and gas to encompass land sales, foreign aid, trade routes and more. Looking ahead, renewables will cut CO2 but won't democratize the region so long as deployment remains firmly in state hands.
belfercenter.org
A Theory of Everything for the Middle East Political Economy
MEI Senior Fellow Ziad Daoud provides a comprehensive analysis of rentierism in the Middle East, documenting how rent-based economies are common across resource-rich and resource-poor states, and expl...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Not the easiest of times, but it's always engaging to discuss the war, economics, the Middle East, and markets at our Bloomberg office in Dubai. Thanks to everyone who joined us today!
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Iraq is offering a $33 discount on oil The catch: Buyers have to transit Hormuz to collect the barrels Number of vessels loading at the port of Basra: • Before the war: 80 a month • March: 12 • April: 2 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iraq Slashes Oil Prices for Buyers Willing to Transit Hormuz
Iraq is offering its term buyers huge discounts for crude loaded this month, but tankers will have to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect the barrels deep inside the Persian Gulf just as hostiliti...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Friends at Bloomberg Businessweek asked me to tally the economic costs of the Iran war So far: • Oil: record glut → historic disruption • Borrowing costs: higher • Income growth: slower The worst part? The bill may still rise Read the full assessment here 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
bloomberg.com
How the Iran War Threatens Global Economic Growth
Oil prices will remain high and the cost of borrowing will go up as the conflict continues.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
What happened Monday? • US says 2 destroyers transited Hormuz • UAE says it intercepted Iranian missiles, blamed drones for fire at Fujairah & strike on ADNOC tanker • Calls in US & Israel to renew attacks on Iran Oil rose from $108 to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US and Iran Trade Fire in Gulf, Jolting Four-Week-Old Truce
The US and Iran exchanged fire in a flareup of violence on Monday that also drew in the United Arab Emirates, prompting calls for renewed strikes on Iranian targets and casting doubt on the fate of a ...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Why did the UAE ask for a currency swap facility with the US? Minister of Foreign Trade: “It is an elite matter. It is not about bailing out” That was my interpretation too when the news broke www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
UAE Says Swap Talks With US Are About Joining ‘Elite’ Group
The United Arab Emirates signaled its currency swap talks with the US were about joining a small club with access to Federal Reserve liquidity lines rather than a need for external financing.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
"Iran attacked the UAE for the first time in almost a month" "Several mobile-phone alerts were sent to people in Dubai, urging them to get to safe areas, and other emirates including Abu Dhabi" Oil jumped to $114 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
A full economic recovery in Israel hinges on two assumptions: (1) wars are over; (2) the conflict hasn’t caused lasting damage Now there's another war & another consensus downgrade to its growth forecast Full analysis on why Israel's economy can't outrun its wars on the Bloomberg terminal
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Another new initiative that doesn't move the needle • Trump says the US will guide ships trapped in the Gulf through Hormuz • The initiative doesn't currently involve navy escorts • Oil markets shrugged: prices are higher now than on Friday www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas for June 2 issues loom large: 1. Hormuz closure means many members can't get their oil out to the world regardless of quotas 2. UAE's exit from the group means higher non-OPEC+ output if & when the Iran war ends www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
OPEC+ Agrees to Symbolic June Quota Increase, Delegates Say
Major OPEC+ nations agreed a modest and symbolic increase in their June production quota levels, as the group sends a business-as-usual message following the surprise exit of the United Arab Emirates....
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Oil isn't the only market where the Iran war is showing up Before the war, markets expected US interest rates to fall this year (blue) Today, they expect rates to stay unchanged (orange) The war is making consumers pay more for energy & more for loans
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Oil is at $108 That's the exact number Dina Esfandiary & I warned about in January if war broke out in the Middle East We laid out the history, the scenarios, the maths, and what $108 crude does to the global economy Weekend reading, perhaps 👇 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The $108 Oil War: Can the Middle East Crash the World Economy?
Half a century ago, turmoil in the Middle East brought the global economy to its knees. Today, even as the region’s geopolitics grow more fractious, oil markets and central banks typically treat confl...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
What do the UAE’s OPEC exit, Houthi restraint in the Red Sea, and a Saudi loan to Pakistan have in common? They point to 4 alliances shaping the Mideast today: 1. Iran + its axis 2. UAE + Israel 3. Saudi + Pakistan 4. Turkey + Qatar Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal
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Reposted by Ziad Daoud
Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/04/2026
Had to do with June futures contracts rolling into July
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Oil went all the way up to $125 today It has since fallen to $114 I'm struggling to find the news driver
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Trump: “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing” Sure: oil is at $119 It's the highest level not only during this Iran war, but since June 2022
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
How much oil is Saudi exporting from the Red Sea? About 4 million barrels a day in the first 3 weeks of April That compares with about 7 million barrels before the Iran war www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Iraqi politicians chose Ali Al-Zaidi as new candidate for prime minister Relatively unknown, he has a month to submit his government to parliament for approval The US Embassy in Baghdad appeared pleased with the choice www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iraq Politicians Chose New Candidate for PM After Trump Pressure
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki ended his bid to reclaim the role after pressure from the US, which was concerned by his close links to Iran.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Why did the UAE leave OPEC? It has a different vision from Saudi on: 1. Oil: Saudi seeks higher prices; UAE wants higher output (chart) 2. Region: Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Somalia 3. Iran war: Pakistan loan is another sign of the rift Analysis, with Dina Esfandiary, on the Bloomberg terminal
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
In Dubai and want to discuss the Middle East, economics, and where the world is heading? Join us in person: • When? Friday, 8 May • What time? 10am • Where? Bloomberg's Dubai office To attend, please register here: go.bloomberg.com/attend/invit...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
In January, Dina Esfandiary & I wrote that the Saudi-UAE rift could spill over to OPEC The Iran war didn't heal that fracture And today, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Oil identity: supply = demand + inventory change What did the Iran war do? • Cut supply by ~10% • Forced adjustment through lower demand & inventory releases – mix unknown • If stockpiles run down, the world may need still-lower demand & higher prices www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The Billion-Barrel Hormuz Oil Shock Is About to Crash Demand
The Strait of Hormuz oil shock has yet to crash demand as the rich world borrows from its stocks and pays up to secure supply. Traders are now sounding the alarm that a harsh adjustment is coming.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
What does the Iran war say about the dollar? Short term: still king • Beat other currencies • Beat gold • Beat bitcoin in 2026 Long term: cracks • US alienating allies • No decisive victory • Hormuz fees in yuan & crypto Full analysis, with Adriana Dupita, on the Bloomberg terminal
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The double blockade has frozen Hormuz • Some Iranian ships are moving, but not passing the US blockade line • Other vessels aren't sailing past Iranian control • Oil has risen to $111 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Egypt is relaxing early-closing restrictions on shops, introduced after the Iran war to curb energy consumption Is it because: a) the energy crunch is easing; or b) the costs of the restrictions exceed their benefits? www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
bloomberg.com
Cairo’s Legendary Late Nights Are Back After Energy Curbs Eased
Egypt’s capital is known for its all-hours buzz. A government effort to reduce power consumption has forced stores and cafés to shut up early.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz • Extend the ceasefire • Postpone nuclear negotiations • Lift the US blockade What do oil markets think? Price is up to $108 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
On the 10th anniversary of Saudi Vision 2030, I think my late-2024 talk at Harvard still holds Yes, Saudi has made progress on social openness But economically, the kingdom has become more dependent on oil than in 2016 www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6ae...
youtube.com
Diversifying from Oil: Aspirations and Results of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
YouTube video by Harvard Growth Lab
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
5 things that happened this week: War in Limbo • Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely after saying he was unlikely to • Iran's foreign minister & US envoys are in Pakistan • Israel says it's waiting on US green light to escalate against Iran 1/5 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Original US plan: Iran will be like Venezuela That didn't work New plan: Iranian leadership is divided; if we get rid of hardliners, we may pull a Venezuela with the moderates
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The war isn't over Israel defense minister: "We are awaiting a green light from the United States--first and foremost to finish off the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty-- and to send Iran back to the Dark and Stone Ages" www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
wsj.com
Israel Awaits Nod From U.S. to Escalate Against Iran, Defense Minister Says
Israel is prepared to escalate military operations against Iran, the country’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said in a recorded statement on Thursday. “We are awaiting a green light from the United S...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Arab Gulf states have borrowed more than $13 billion since the Iran war began in late Feb Most of the borrowing comes from the richest three: UAE, Qatar, Kuwait Probably a sign they can find willing lenders, not just a need for funds www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The Iran war has pulled emerging-market exchange rates in opposite directions The dividing factor: how much oil each country buys or sells Oil exporters are gaining, importers are losing, the movement is proportional to the shock Full analysis, with Adriana Dupita, on the Bloomberg terminal
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Mideast war latest: • Double blockade on Hormuz • Trump announces 3-week extension of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire • Markets aren't liking the limbo: oil is up for the 5th day to $107 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired after clashing with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth The abrupt dismissal comes as the Navy is helping oversee a Hormuz blockade Phelan is only the latest high-level departure from the Pentagon since the Iran war began www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Navy Secretary Phelan Stepping Down Immediately, Pentagon Says
Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired after clashing with top leaders at the Pentagon, including over administration efforts to revive US shipbuilding, according to people familiar with the matter, mak...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Dubai real estate: "A home price index compiled by ValuStrat fell 5.9% in March from a month earlier, with valuations seeing their first decline since 2020" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Dubai Home Prices Post First Declines After Post-Pandemic Boom
Foreign investors and well-heeled expatriates helped transform Dubai’s housing market into one of the world’s hottest. Now values are falling for the first time since the global pandemic as the region...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
State of Hormuz: • The US intercepted 2 Iranian tankers • Iran attacked vessels & diverted 2 into its waters • Oil rose for the 4th day to $103 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Scott Bessent says many Gulf and Asian nations have requested currency-swap lines with the US "The UAE informally inquired about [a] potential .. currency swap, if the impact of the war worsens, people familiar with the matter previously told Bloomberg" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
This is a mess 👇 Trump's special envoy - Paolo Zampolli - seeks to replace Iran with Italy in the World Cup Why? An effort to repair ties between Trump and Meloni, who fell out over Trump's attacks on the pope www.ft.com/content/1ff3...
ft.com
Trump envoy seeks to replace Iran with Italy in football World Cup
Request to Fifa is pitched as effort to repair US ties with country even as Iran says it is ready to participate
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil killed in Israeli strike "Israeli airstrike hit near the car she was traveling in" "A second Israeli strike then hit the house .. where [she] had taken cover" Rescue workers "were fired on by Israeli forces" apnews.com/article/leba...
apnews.com
Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil killed in Israeli strike on a house where she took cover, paper says
Rescue workers say a Lebanese journalist was killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon. The daily Al-Akhbar newspaper says its reporter Amal Khalil was killed on Wednesday in the southern vil...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
The US blocked a $500-million shipment of dollar banknotes to Iraq – 2nd time since the Iran war began The cash is Iraq's money, proceeds from oil sales held at the New York Fed Iraq needs the notes to keep its cash-based economy functioning www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Exclusive | U.S. Blocks Iraq’s Dollar Shipments to Squeeze Its Iran-Backed Militias
The Trump administration also suspended security cooperation with Baghdad in an escalating pressure campaign.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Porous blockade: • Iranian ships are sailing past US blockade line at Hormuz • This article says they've moved 9 million barrels of oil to the market • That's about 1 million barrels of oil per day, given that the blockade began on 13 April www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Iran Tankers Go Dark to Sail Past US Blockade Laden With Oil
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers have sailed out of the Persian Gulf and past a US blockade this week, part of a flotilla that has made its way around the warships and ferried roughly 9 millio...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Tuesday TACO: • Trump has extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely • After saying on Monday it was “highly unlikely” that he'd prolong the truce • He'll maintain a blockade on ships going to and from Iran Oil reaction? Price is up to almost $100 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Trump on Iran: • Ceasefire expires Wednesday evening US time • He's unlikely to extend the truce • Pakistan talks to begin Tuesday night or Wednesday morning Iran has yet to confirm participation www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump Signals No Truce Extension on Eve of Scheduled Peace Talks
President Donald Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend a two-week ceasefire with Iran that’s set to expire in two days, while Iran has yet to confirm it will participate in talks to end a war that’s...
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
This report says the UAE is asking the US for a currency swap Don't think this is about dollar shortages: • The UAE is wealthy • The Iran war has reduced but not stopped oil exports • It just signed its own swap deal with Bahrain www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Exclusive | U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline
Emirati officials have spoken with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about accessing dollars if the Middle East conflict drags on.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
"Trump said the Navy stopped and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, “blowing a hole” in its engine room after it ignored warnings to stop" Ceasefire! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump Says US Seized Iranian Ship, Blew Hole in Its Engine Room
President Donald Trump said the Navy stopped and boarded an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, “blowing a hole” in its engine room after it ignored warnings to stop.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I told Vivian Nereim of @nytimes.com that the Saudi story always begins & ends with oil That surging oil prices have helped Riyadh offset export losses from the Iran war And that a decade into Vision 2030, economic performance is still linked to oil www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/w...
nytimes.com
A Leaner Saudi Arabia Turns From Grandiose Plans to Pragmatism
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Probability of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end-April? Near 40% yesterday Close to 20% today Source: Polymarket
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Doesn't look like de-escalation → "The US has already turned back 23 ships that have sought to leave Iranian ports .. the broadening of the campaign will enable the US to take control of .. vessels around the world, including ships carrying Iranian oil" www.wsj.com/world/middle...
wsj.com
Exclusive | U.S. Military Prepares to Board Iran-Linked Ships in Coming Days, Officials Say
The preparations mark an expansion of the U.S. naval crackdown beyond the Middle East, as the Iranian military tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz.
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Ziad Daoud @ziaddaoud.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Hormuz & Lebanon were always the 2 main hurdles to a ceasefire in the Middle East. They still are. Hormuz: Iran says the waterway is closed. The US blockade continues. Lebanon: A truce came on Thursday. Israel struck targets on Saturday. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Chaos Erupts in Hormuz After Trump Claimed Iran Deal is Imminent
Iran on Saturday reimposed restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Israel attacked targets in Lebanon, undermining expectations of an imminent peace deal touted by US President...
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