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Sam Heller | سام هيلر

@abujamajem.com
5.2K followers 409 following 3.8K posts

Researcher and analyst looking at Lebanon, Syria and the wider neighborhood. Senior @cipolicy.bsky.social Fellow. Former @tcfdotorg.bsky.social @crisisgroup.org. "Jamajem" means ☠️. www.abujamajem.com

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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 13h
September 28 statement by Syrian Ministry of Public Works and Housing defending legitimacy of land expropriation – including past expropriation on original, Assad-era terms – and public-private partnerships with investors and developers: www.facebook.com/story.php?st...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 02/10/2026
I learned a lot about Lebanon's IMF talks working with Sami Zoughaib on our 2023 report "The Shadow Plan": thepolicyinitiative.org/article/deta... But at the end, my takeaway was, "Oh, this probably won't happen – Lebanon just won't have an IMF deal." x.com/Mouniryounis... 1/2
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
“This is what researchers have long argued: conflict, not poverty, is the main driver of irregular migration” 🤔 Since December 2024, European countries have substantially limited access to asylum.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
Ya, a bunch of goobers got mad at me when I said this at the time: x.com/AbuJamajem/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/09/2026
Alex Martin Astley for @thenewarab.bsky.social on Israel-Lebanon negotiations and Israel's occupation of the South: www.newarab.com/analysis/sco... Includes my thoughts.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/09/2026
@crisisgroup.org's Noah Bonsey and Yazer Othman on the state of northeast Syria integration: www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e... Flags how incorporation into a new, Damascus-led economic regime has made life harder for northeast residents👇🏻 I should have a related piece out next week.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 17/09/2026
“Anything could happen with me” is extremely birdbrained
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 15/09/2026
This Is Beirut reporting on Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh "pilot zone" is co-bylined by a former WINEP research assistant and a political operative for France's far-right National Rally and Reconquête:
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 14/09/2026
Wrote earlier this year about economically motivated protest by constituencies inside Shara' government coalition: tcf.org/content/repo...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 10/09/2026
Muheisini response to Zaman al-Wasl item: x.com/zamanalwsl/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 07/09/2026
Newly unsanctioned Muheisini reportedly investing in six new companies in Syria under "Syrian-Gulf Investment House" umbrella: x.com/zamanalwsl/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 04/09/2026
"Sovereignty" isn't a main feature of U.S. progressives' rhetoric – which makes sense. Their solidarity centers more on peoples, not states. And sovereignty is less resonant in the U.S. context; after all, U.S. sovereignty is not currently being threatened by some encroaching great power. 2/3
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 04/09/2026
Last week, @jayapal.house.gov and other U.S. progressives attended the Panamerican Congress, which resolved to combat a “renewed doctrine of domination” and advance hemispheric cooperation “based on solidarity between peoples and sovereignty between nations”: www.instagram.com/p/Dcgd-8ynFpr 1/3
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 02/09/2026
It's great to see American progressives opposing the "Donroe Doctrine" in the Western Hemisphere; but Trump's assault on sovereignty is global, and really challenging it will mean defying bipartisan Washington orthodoxy. More in my @inkstickmedia.com latest: inkstickmedia.com/in-the-age-o...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 31/08/2026
Trump's neo-imperial "Donroe Doctrine" is the most naked example of his administration's project to subjugate others. Yet it's of a piece with a more global project of domination, including in the Middle East. More in my latest for @inkstickmedia.com: inkstickmedia.com/in-the-age-o...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 29/08/2026
Trump administration looting and stripping Venezuela 👇🏻 x.com/secrubio/sta... Reject this: inkstickmedia.com/in-the-age-o...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 28/08/2026
Spoke to Arab News’ Anan Tello about Israeli officials’ statements making clear their eliminationist intent in south Lebanon: www.arabnews.com/node/2656059...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 25/08/2026
This is nuts, for sure do not accept this www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/w...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 25/08/2026
“And rightly so” 🙄 There is no objective basis or moral content to these sanctions; Cuba is also, implausibly, a “state sponsor of terrorism.” x.com/linakhatibuk...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 24/08/2026
Understand why this would be confusing for people, but I assume that whatever controversial things Barrack said were – as has previously been the case – just him being undisciplined and saying whatever thing came into his brain. x.com/rmslim/statu...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 24/08/2026
New pro-Israel propaganda from Sehnaoui's This Is Beirut:
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 22/08/2026
Latest episode in Israel's spiraling national psychosis Should not enable this x.com/israelipm/st...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 21/08/2026
Sehnaoui's This Is Beirut claims Hizb affiliates re-entered pilot zone: thisisbeirut.com.lb/features/rep... Lebanese authorities committed to "clear" zones, subject to yet-undefined "verification" – how do they "clear" to Israel's satisfaction without enforcing residents' permanent displacement?
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 19/08/2026
These “prediction markets” are just polls of degenerate gamblers, right x.com/TVietor08/st...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/08/2026
Seems like the dumbest possible way to gauge coherence of the Iranian regime, just asking, "Are there internal splits we should be aware of and can potentially exploit, yes/no" Muppets www.axios.com/2026/08/16/i...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 18/08/2026
New murals by Charles Helou bus station seem to be sneaky ad for Wegovy; QR code sends you here: www.novocare.global/nerm/ar/mana...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 17/08/2026
Apologies, my mistake – centrally appointed regional administration actually older: x.com/AKMcKeever/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 17/08/2026
State Department comment: "We look forward to the LAF's completion of clearance operations in the first pilot zones, and, after clearance is verified, the process will expand." x.com/jhaboush/sta...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 17/08/2026
@syriadirect.bsky.social's @natachadanon.bsky.social on water resource dispute behind unrest in rural Damascus town of Mnein last month: syriadirect.org/syrias-wells... Features comment from "regional administration," a new administrative layer headed in this instance by local returnee from Idlib:
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 16/08/2026
In meeting Thursday, Syrian justice minister Mazhar al-Weis and Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council president Faiq Zeidan discussed Syrian prisoners held in Iraq, agreed to form joint committees to deal with file: sana.sy/syria-and-th...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 14/08/2026
Some Israeli withdrawal may be possible before nationwide disarmament – pending mutual agreement, verification, etc. – but full withdrawal seems pretty clearly subject to nationwide disarmament. (e.g. 🖼️) Israel may have a maximalist interpretation, but Lebanon signed onto a text that is maximalist!
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 14/08/2026
Permanent/forever Israeli occupation may be inconsistent with the trilateral framework, but the framework licenses an Israeli presence that is literally indefinite (i.e., without defined end), pending Hizbullah's nationwide disarmament. Lebanon's representatives signed this! x.com/BarakRavid/s...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 14/08/2026
I’m apparently “one of the most virulent and extreme critics of the Lebanon-Israeli framework agreement” 🤷🏻‍♂️ x.com/robsatloff/s... Yeah, because I understood what the United States was doing and tried to warn everyone: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 10/08/2026
Yedioth Ahronoth on Israeli military's posture in occupied southwest Syria: www.ynetnews.com/article/r111... The below 🖼️ seems to capture Israel's hypervigilant threat perception, post-October 7: all about capability, totally agnostic to intent.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 09/08/2026
🦷 Teeth 🦷 x.com/alexbward/st...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 09/08/2026
"Lebanon Sanctions, Stabilization, and Support Act" introduced by Sens. Shaheen and Lankford would establish Lebanon reconstruction fund "to be administered by the Secretary of State": www.lankford.senate.gov/news/press-r...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 07/08/2026
Why would Israel agree to more “pilot zones” in south Lebanon? Per the absurd terms that Lebanese negotiators endorsed in trilat framework: It’s not obvious that initial pilot zones were cleared to Israel’s satisfaction, and there's still no agreed third party to verify. x.com/ZeinakhodrAl...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 06/08/2026
Did the Lebanese government detain this man for a speech crime and render him to Syrian authorities? x.com/qalaatalmudi... Syrian Internal Security says it detained him "after he was observed on the Syrian-Lebanese border": x.com/ISFMOISY/sta...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 05/08/2026
So from AIPAC’s perspective, $30 million in smears targeting El-Sayed maybe not a total loss: x.com/andrewsolend...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 05/08/2026
I think "widespread" poverty may not be getting enough attention, particularly given how inflation has "picked up considerably" – will hopefully have a piece out on Syria's cost-of-living crisis soon. 2/2
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 05/08/2026
IMF release 🖼️ on July 19-23 staff visit to Syria: www.imf.org/en/news/arti... SCPR has argued convincingly (I think) against this type of praise from IMF for Syrian government's conservative fiscal policy, given the country's present fragility: bsky.app/profile/abuj...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 04/08/2026
Article says Hanin Ghaddar heads This Is Beirut, which I hadn't heard before – This Is Beirut website doesn't seem to disclose its masthead: bsky.app/profile/abuj...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 04/08/2026
Finally got to Caroline Hayek-Cyrille Nême LOLJ series on Antoun Sehnaoui, which is indeed worth reading. In particular, on his media and political networks: today.lorientlejour.com/article/1543... And Washington influence: today.lorientlejour.com/article/1543... Corroborates him boosting Moawad:
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 02/08/2026
Seems clear that Trump would have unilaterally disengaged from Iran conflict months ago, were it not for Hormuz; Iranian control over Hormuz is what prevents U.S. from attacking Iran and starting/stopping war at its convenience, as it can do with most countries.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 01/08/2026
“Hitting Iranians harder unlikely to change their calculus, but what if we (did magic)” DC is a mess
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 30/07/2026
Stupid empire x.com/reutersafric...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 29/07/2026
Ya x.com/yarbatman/st...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 28/07/2026
Wouldn’t assume that Trump administration policy will now somehow become good, minus Graham; still, likely positive that Graham no longer a power center under Trump, advocating bad policy and elevating personnel like Ortagus.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 23/07/2026
Yeah, I think resumption of war in Lebanon is probably synced to the U.S.-Iran dynamic – which is escalating, progressively – not to a Lebanon-Israel track that Hizbullah has anyway said it intends to disregard: x.com/les_politiqu...
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 22/07/2026
With these "pilot zones," Lebanese authorities haven't just committed to deploy the army; the army is also supposed to "destroy… associated infrastructure," etc. So what more is now expected of the army, and is that compatible with residents' return? x.com/TVManar1/sta...
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