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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 5h

Some of the data centres being proposed have the electricity consumption of Manchester. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @stephenjarvis.bsky.social explain how the location of data centres matters for energy demand, from our recent podcast on energy prices:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 7h

📊 #IFSSatStat: Public service spending will be the Chancellor’s key Budget challenge. While day-to-day departmental spending is set to grow by 2.4% in real terms this year, this will drop to an average of 1% over 2028–29 to 2030–31, making existing plans harder to deliver.

Chart shows planned annual real-terms spending growth for day-to-day spending based on March 2026 OBR forecast. Title states: "On inherited plans, departmental spending growth is front-loaded, and set to slow sharply after this year."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 16/10/2026

EVENT: IFS Zooms In Live: A look ahead to the Budget 📅 Tue 20 Oct | 18:30 to 20:00 | British Library Knowledge Centre London Join us for a special in-person recording of the IFS Zooms In podcast ahead of the Budget, looking at the choices facing the Chancellor:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

NEW PODCAST: Is the Chancellor’s spending plan credible? 🎙️ With 13 days to go, @helenmiller.bsky.social, @beeboileau.bsky.social and @joaosousa.bsky.social examine the impacts that higher inflation, rising borrowing costs, and conflict in the Middle East will have on John Healey's first Budget ⬇️

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Thank you to everyone who attended our IFS Green Budget 2026 launch event today, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and in association with Barclays. IFS researchers, Jack Meaning, and Gus O’Donnell provided analysis of the challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor at the upcoming Budget.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

STARTING NOW: Join us live for the launch of our IFS Green Budget 2026, with presentations from @TheIFS authors and Barclays, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org. 📺️ Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fn0... 🖐️ Submit questions via Slido: app.sli.do/event/93UDDy...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Relative to the OBR’s March forecast, Barclays expect the economy to grow by 2.3 percentage points more in cash-terms from 2025 to 2030 – which matters for the public finances. But adjusting for inflation, Barclays expect the real size of the economy to grow by 0.1 percentage points less.

Chart shows difference in forecast levels of GDP between Barclays October and OBR March forecasts (percentage points). Title states: "Barclays expect the UK economy to grow more quickly in cash-terms but by less in real-terms than the OBR forecast back in March."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Higher energy costs will also drag on economic growth. Like the IMF, Barclays expect real-terms economic growth to slow in 2027. Barclays then expect it rise again from 2028 onwards as the energy price shock unwinds.

Chart shows annual real GDP growth forecast. Title states: "Barclays expect real GDP growth to fall to 1.2% in 2027 before rising again to 1.6% in 2028 and 2029."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Higher central bank interest rates are one factor that has pushed up government borrowing costs across the developed world. The rise in yields on UK government bonds over the last year have been in line with – or even slightly smaller than – increases seen across other major economies.

Chart shows yields on 10-year government bonds. Title states: "Since the last Autumn Budget, the interest rate on 10-year UK government bonds has risen from 4.4% to 5.4%, and remains the highest across G10 countries."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

In response to higher-than-expected inflation, central banks in the UK, Europe and the US have set higher interest rates than was previously expected by the market. Central banks are expected to tighten monetary policy further over the next 6 months.

Chart shows Change in central bank policy rate relative to market expectations at end of February (percentage points). Title states: "The Bank of England’s policy rate is currently 0.5 percentage points higher than markets expected in February, in line with other central banks."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

In spring, both Barclays and the OBR expected inflation would fall through the first half of 2026 and be close to the Bank of England’s 2% target by Q2 2026. Inflation is much higher than expected, and Barclays expect it to rise further to 3.6% in Q1 2027 before then falling back.

Chart shows CPI inflation forecasts (%). Title states: "Barclays now forecast inflation will peak at 3.6% in the first quarter of 2027 before falling back to the Bank of England’s 2% target late next year."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The Middle East conflict has pushed up the prices of crude oil and natural gas, and the cost of refining oil products has also risen. Together, these prices increases have raised energy costs in the UK, a key element of consumer spending.

Chart shows Brent crude oil price (index). Title states: "The price of crude oil has risen by 50% since the Middle East Conflict began, a similar scale to the rise seen around the start of the Russia–Ukraine war."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

NEW: With IMF forecasts out today, we explore how the Middle East conflict is affecting the outlook for the UK economy. A brief thread based on analysis by Barclays for the IFS Green Budget 2026, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

"We spend well over £100 billion a year on debt interest, more than any department outside of the NHS." "The big picture challenge: higher debt, higher borrowing costs, a long way to go to get them down." – @helenmiller.bsky.social on #PoliticsLive

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

"There is a spectrum of choices" for the Chancellor at this month's Budget, @helenmiller.bsky.social explains on #PoliticsLive. "But if he chooses to do nothing, inflation will blow his plans off course. He needs to make a choice that is credible at this Budget."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

“A “steady-as-she-goes” Budget is not an option available to the Chancellor.” Read our IFS Green Budget report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org in association with Barclays, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Quote from IFS Director Helen Miller: "John Healey likely faces a forecast in which borrowing is still expected to fall in coming years and the fiscal rules are still being met. Despite that, a “steady-as-she-goes” Budget is not an option available to the Chancellor. Choosing to stay the course with the inherited tax and spending plans would mean allowing inflation to blow departments’ spending plans off course."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

‘Headroom’ never gives a full picture of the health of the public finances, and debt is set to remain high in coming years. Any significant top-up to day-to-day spending should be met through tax rises or spending cuts elsewhere, rather than increased borrowing.

Chart shows Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities as a share of national income. Title states: "Debt is high and not set to meaningfully fall over the next five years: debt interest now makes up £1 of every £13 the government spends."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

The plans John Healey inherited are for borrowing to fall quickly over the coming years – but borrowing will likely fall more slowly in the short run than previously expected. This will make the government’s plans to reduce borrowing more backloaded.

Chart shows public sector net borrowing as a share of GDP. Title states: "Borrowing is set to be higher under all our scenarios in the short term."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

If the government also wanted to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, this could cost £11bn in 2030–31. The government does not have to top up budgets. But keeping spending totals unchanged would mean scaling back ambitions or accepting a squeeze on some services.

Chart shows illustrative scenario for departmental top-ups in 2030–31. Title states: "Choosing to offset inflation, avoid cuts elsewhere and fund higher defence spending could require a £35 billion top-up to departmental budgets."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

In one scenario for the next Spending Review, health grows by 2.7% a year in real terms and defence stays at 2.7% of GDP. This implies annual real cuts of 0.9% to other departments. Avoiding these cuts could require top-ups of around £9bn in 2030–31.

Chart shows illustrative scenario for real-terms growth in departmental budgets between 2027–28 and 2030–31, with total departmental spending growing at an annual real average of 0.9%. Title states: "Even in March, next year’s Spending Review looked challenging, with slow planned growth in total spending forcing difficult decisions."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

The main challenge the Chancellor will face at the Budget will be from public service spending. Pressures could plausibly sum to £35 billion in 2030-31. Even back in March, plans already looked tight because spending growth is planned to slow markedly.

Chart shows planned annual real-terms spending growth for day-to-day and capital spending based on March 2026 OBR forecast. Title states: "On inherited plans, departmental spending growth is front-loaded, and set to slow sharply after this year."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Higher interest rates will push up spending. Higher inflation will also push up spending but will likely increase forecast revenues by more. These effects are VERY uncertain. In a plausible scenario, this could leave 'headroom' at £21bn, before any policy changes at the Budget.

Chart shows scenario for headroom compared to OBR March 2026 forecast. Title states: "There is significant uncertainty, but in a plausible scenario, ‘headroom’ against the current budget rule would be around £20 billion in 2029–30."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

The economic context for this Budget is heavily influenced by conflict in the Middle East. Interest rates on government debt are higher, and inflation is likely to stay higher for longer. The fiscal impacts of these changes will be significant.

Charts shows interest rates on 10-year UK government debt and annual inflation (CPI). Title states: "Both interest rates on government debt and inflation are higher than was expected in March."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

NEW: The Chancellor’s fiscal ‘headroom’ could be larger than many expect, but spending pressures will be a key challenge for John Healey at the Budget. 🧵 Here are the main findings from our 2026 IFS Green Budget, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org in association with Barclays:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

“If the Chancellor simply pencils in implicit cuts that he knows he would never be willing to deliver, his plans to cut borrowing, and thereby meet the fiscal rules, won’t be realistic.” @helenmiller.bsky.social outlines John Healey's choices as part of the IFS Green Budget 2026, out today.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Why is spending on disability benefits increasing? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social discuss the factors that may have driven the increase in spending, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

📊 #IFSSatStat: The PM's decision to cut VAT on electricity lowers prices for households by 5%, but because of other cost increases - primarily higher gas prices - the average household electricity bill is just £3.30 lower in October compared to September.

Chart shows electricity price per kilowatt-hour breakdown across households in Great Britain, 2017 - 2025. Title states: "Average household electricity prices in Great Britain increased by 62% in real terms between 2017 and 2025 driven in large part by higher gas prices."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Spending on working age disability benefits has risen from £14 billion in 2019 to £25 billion today. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social discuss the rise in spending and expected forecasts, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

NEW PODCAST: Are renewables making electricity more expensive? 🎙️ For our latest edition of IFS Zooms In, @helenmiller.bsky.social, @peterlevell.bsky.social, and @stephenjarvis.bsky.social, explore the economics of renewable energy.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Since 2019, government spending on working age benefits has risen from 4.2% to 4.7% of GDP. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @eduinlatimer.bsky.social explain how working age benefits spending has changed overtime, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

NEW: "It would push up the price of high-end housing, benefiting existing owners more than those who might buy such properties in future." Senior Economist Stuart Adam responds to the Conservative Party's announcement on changes to inheritance tax.

Quote from Senior Economist Stuart Adam. Quote reads: "The biggest beneficiaries would be those with the highest wealth and the most valuable homes. These will mostly be people living in London and the South-East. When put alongside the abolition of stamp duty on main homes and a cancellation of the ‘mansion tax’ it would push up the price of high-end housing, benefiting existing owners more than those who might buy such properties in future."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

What are personal independence payments (PIP)? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and Tom Waters explain how PIP works and who it is for, in our recent podcast on whether disability benefits need reform:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

✨ We’re hiring! ✨️ 🧾 Our 2026 recruitment brochure explains everything you need to know as a prospective applicant: what roles we're recruiting for, when applications close, and life working at the IFS. Take a look here ➡️ ifs.org.uk/system/files...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

How did net migration in the UK change after the pandemic? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social discuss the changing trends in net migration, from our recent podcast on the impact of immigration on the public finances:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

How do immigrants impact tax revenues? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social explain, from our recent podcast on immigration and the public finances:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

In 2024, there were roughly 13 million people living in the UK who were born abroad. 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social and @msumption.bsky.social discuss how immigration has changed over time in the UK, from our recent podcast on the impact of immigration on the public finances:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

📊 #IFSSatStat: The new triple lock announced by the Prime Minister this week removes the most expensive and unpredictable part of the triple lock: the fact that it permanently ratchets up state pension spending over time.

Chart shows Real-terms increase in value of the state pension since year 1 over an illustrated timescale, for the new and the old triple lock. Title states: "The state pension will still grow under the new triple lock, but will no longer permanently ‘ratchet up’ in value relative to earnings."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

WATCH NOW: Sharing income tax revenues with England’s mayors: the issues and options 🖥️ Watch our event live here: youtube.com/live/wEJ2J7P... ❓️ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/4W56EY... Funded by CIPFA and @nuffieldfoundation.org

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

NEW: The government has committed to sharing a portion of income tax revenues with mayors. But how will this work? Our new report, published as part of the IFS Green Budget 2026 with support from CIPFA and @nuffieldfoundation.org, examines the key choices and trade-offs the Chancellor faces ⬇️

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

We'll be presenting our analysis of the UK economic outlook, the public finances and choices facing the Chancellor ahead of the Budget at our IFS Green Budget 2026 event on Wed 14 October, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays. ➡️ Sign up to attend here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

"The new triple lock is not going to put pensioners into poverty. Pensions will still rise in line with average earnings." 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social explains how the new triple lock will work in our latest podcast: has the triple lock been fixed? 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/has...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

"Because of how uncertain the old triple lock was, it could save anywhere between £4bn and £20bn by the end of the next decade" 🎙️ Jonathan Cribb explains the difficulties in knowing how much the changes to the triple lock will save, in our latest podcast: has the triple lock been fixed?

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW PODCAST: Has the triple lock been fixed? 🎙️ @helenmiller.bsky.social explains why the triple lock is an unpredictable way to increase the state pension, in our new podcast about the Government's announcement, out now:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

➡️ Read the full comment here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sav...

Quote from IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb. The quote reads: "There has been a lot of debate about whether this reform can fund a substantial package of social care reform. However, the key point is not how large these savings are compared to the cost of providing social care.

Instead, the crucial thing to understand is that the triple lock reform prevents unfunded increases in state pension expenditure from 2030 onwards. Cancelling an unfunded increase does not free up funds to pay for a new government commitment. Therefore tax rises or other spending cuts will be needed to pay for social care."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Savings from triple lock reform could be large but will not be able to fund social care. In a new comment, IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb sets out potential savings from triple lock reform.

Quote from IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb. The quote reads: "The government has estimated that their reform to the triple lock will save £15 billion per year by 2039–40 . That number partly reflects inflation over the next 13 years. In today’s terms, the estimated saving is £11 billion per year. However, the saving is very uncertain, because of how unpredictable the old triple lock is, and new IFS analysis shows it could reasonably be anywhere between £4 billion and £20 billion."

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

EVENT: Sharing income tax revenues with England’s mayors 📅 Fri 2 Oct | 10–11am | Online Join our event on the choices, trade-offs and risks of giving mayoral authorities a share of local income tax, funded by CIPFA and part of our IFS Green Budget 2026. Sign up here ➡️ ifs.org.uk/events/shari...

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

NEW: How will the new triple lock work and what effects will it have? 📊 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social and @helenmiller.bsky.social's new comment explains how the new triple lock would work, how much it would cost and how it compares to the previous triple lock: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Chart is an illustration of how the new triple lock would operate compared to the old triple lock.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

How much would the new reformed triple lock announced by Andy Burnham this afternoon save compared to the old system? 📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social explains on BBC Politics Live:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

"The old triple lock is gone. And the new triple lock still keeps pace with average earnings, but doesn't have the ratchet." 📺 @helenmiller.bsky.social interprets the Prime Minister's triple lock announcement in her response to the speech on BBC Politics Live:

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

“Better reforms were available, but this one is a big improvement. It will not, however, be the answer to funding universal social care.” ⬇️ IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb responds to the Prime Minister’s triple lock announcement at this afternoon’s Labour Conference: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...

Quote from IFS Deputy Director Jonathan Cribb: "It is great news that Andy Burnham has neutered the worst element of the triple lock. Goodbye to the unsustainable ‘ratchet’ effect. State pensions will still rise, but more sustainably. Better reforms were available, but this one is a big improvement. It will not, however, be the answer to funding universal social care."

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