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João Sousa

@joaosousa.bsky.social
809 followers 1.2K following 106 posts

Senior Research Economist at @TheIFS.bsky.social, formerly at the Fraser of Allander Institute and the OBR. Mostly economic and fiscal policy, plus the odd rugby and football post. Views are my own, shares are not endorsements. Glasgow-based

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Reposted by João Sousa
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
NEW: Should utilities such as water, energy and transport come under public control? In deciding, the government needs to confront important trade-offs. Part of the 2026 IFS Green Budget, our new explainer sets out what greater public control or ownership could look like ⬇️
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Main takeaways from @scotfisccomm.bsky.social's update today: - Higher funding this year, particularly on resource, but if all spent, likely to lead to a big drop in real-terms next year; - Budget will be tough, especially if NHS is to be spared cuts; axe will fall much more on other areas
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
NEW: Next week’s Scottish Fiscal Update will show more money this year – but cuts are looming next year. 📗 David Phillips and @joaosousa.bsky.social’s new comment examines Scotland’s fiscal situation ahead of next week’s Fiscal Update: ifs.org.uk/articles/nex...
Quote from IFS Associate Director David Phillips: "Next week’s Fiscal Update will confirm that the Scottish Government has more money to spend this year than when the initial 2026–27 Scottish Budget was set. But this is just the calm before what looks like a particularly nasty Budget storm looming for 2027–28. Funding for day-to-day spending on public services currently looks set to fall by nearly 2% in real terms next year compared with this year – and the fall could be even greater than this if, come the Budget, the Scottish Fiscal Commission downgrades income tax revenue forecasts in light of recent disappointing news on past revenues."
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Main takeaways from our @theifs.bsky.social response to GERS Little change since last year: notional deficit down slightly to 10.9% of GDP, but still substantially higher than the 4.2% registered at UK level. Driven by higher public spending, a continuing pattern; revenues pretty much at the UK avg
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Some personal news: today is my last day at @fraserofallander.org. I've learned so much over the past three years, and I can't thank my colleagues enough - the FAI is in my view a brilliant institution, full of talented people and playing a pivotal role in scrutiny of public policy.
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Amazing stuff - and also further evidence of just how bonkers our VAT system is. All of this is deadweight and welfare-reducing in the aggregate - including this fabulously amusing article
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
This seems like a bad idea, just like we said about the Scottish proposal. Will likely solve nothing, cause shortages if cap very low or lead to artificially supplied (and wasteful) low quality products no one wants. National loaf anyone?
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Reposted by João Sousa
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Britain, 2335: The budget ceremony begins with the traditional Announcement of the Fuel Duty Rise. Two months later, there will be the traditional Postponement of the Fuel Duty Rise, continuing a ritual begun centuries earlier by Chancellors in the Fossil Fuel era
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Look at the charts and tell me there's a lot of room for manoeuvre in the public finances. Even with optimistic spending totals and a strong primary surplus, debt will still be higher than today and barely falling. And that presumes we'll *finally* start to tighten fiscal policy
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
My latest @heraldscotland.bsky.social article: why the BoE decided to wait, and why the UK Govt ought to be exploring how to design a targeted scheme rather than a repeat of 2022's blank-cheque approach www.heraldscotland.com/news/2599742...
heraldscotland.com
No smoke without ire if energy targets fail
With war breaking out in Iran and the broader Middle East in the past month, market uncertainty has ratcheted up again. One thing is clear, however:…
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 23/03/2026
How is the Iran War affecting inflation expectations and the public finances? And what do the increases in gilt yields affect the context of any UK Government response? Read our analysis below: fraserofallander.org/the-iran-war...
fraserofallander.org
The Iran War, inflation and the public finances | FAI
Oil and gas prices have fluctuated significantly since 28 February, but what is undeniable is the increase in levels…
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
This is such a bizarre column that fundamentally misunderstands what Richard Hughes said at the parliamentary hearing. It's not that the Government can't spend more - of course it can. But what Hughes said was different altogether, and much more sensible observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
observer.co.uk
Reeves v the OBR: what really happened | The Observer
The former OBR chair has taken aim at the chancellor, but he misunderstands the scope of the watchdog’s role in shaping economic policy
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
1/ This latest piece I've worked on is a reassessment of the implications of some of the OBR's long-term assumptions on indexation and what it means for fiscal sustainability. Key point: fiscal drag is a feature, not a bug, and taxes are already going up even when thresholds are no longer frozen
Chart showing that assuming fiscal drag, primary receipts as a share of GDP will go up to nearly 49% of GDP, compared with the OBR's projection for them to be under 39% in 2073-74 under average earnings indexation
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 19/12/2025
When ministers say the Scottish Budget is balanced, is it a meaningful statement? Have they been plugging gaps with borrowing and non-recurring funding, including in the ABR? Welcome to our Budget Report preview series - look out for more in January! fraserofallander.org/scotlands-bu...
fraserofallander.org
How balanced is the Scottish Budget? | FAI
It has almost become a ritual – an article of faith that is repeated endlessly in the Scottish Parliament…
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
1/📄 New working paper www.strath.ac.uk/media/1newwe... On 4 Nov, the Chancellor heavily hinted Labour might break its manifesto and raise income tax. Nine days later: plan dropped, blamed on "better than expected OBR forecasts." Those forecasts were delivered 5 days BEFORE her speech. Thread 👇
strath.ac.uk
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 26/11/2025
Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
My view on the two-forecast situation: it's not a time-consistent equilibrium to say there won't be policy accompanying a forecast. With Britain's institutions, the only way to reduce tinkering is to cut fiscal forecasts to one a year www.ft.com/content/921d...
ft.com
Letter: Here’s how the British economy reduces fiscal volatility
From João Sousa, Deputy Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde; Former Senior Fiscal Analyst, Office for Budget Responsibility, Glasgow, UK
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 18/11/2025
As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more? Read our latest Budget preview below: fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
fraserofallander.org
UK Budget Preview #3: Eyeing up a smorgasbord | FAI
The UK Budget is still more than a week away, but it feels very long in the tooth already…
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 14/11/2025
This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work. The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago. This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 19/09/2025
What better way to round off our conference than with a look ahead to the 2026 Holyrood election with Professor Sir John Curtice? #FAI50
a photograph of professor sir John Curtice talking at our conference
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 18/09/2025
And we are live! What a great turn out 😁 Share your insights and pictures with us using #FAI50
Mairi Spowage doing her welcome address at the FAI 50th anniversary conference in front of a large audiencea large audience in an auditorium
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
A really interesting piece from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - highlighting, as we have discussed at @fraserofallander.org as well, that the real crux of the issue is the looseness of the fiscal stance and inadequate buffer that makes every tiny shock enough to derail policy shorturl.at/uDy1a
fraserofallander.org
Unpleasant fiscal arithmetic has nothing to do with the OBR | FAI
Imagine you’re heading out for a walk. You really want it to be dry, but your weather forecast app says it’s more likely than not that it will rain. You chance it…
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...
paulkrugman.substack.com
We Are All Lisa Cook
Nobody is safe from weaponized government
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
UK fiscal issues aren't solved by ignoring poor productivity data or abolishing the OBR. Productivity growth has been averaging 0.5% a year. PSNB/GDP has averaged 4.8% since 2000-01, and 5.9% since 08-09. This screams fiscal policy that's too loose, and policy and politicians must reckon with that
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 15/08/2025
🚨 We're delighted to announce our (near) final programme for our Economic and Social Policy Conference on the 18th and 19th September, including a new live conference page on our site. Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
fraserofallander.org
The Fraser of Allander Institute Economic and Social Policy Conference 2025 | FAI
A few weeks ago, we announced our exciting plans to celebrate the Fraser of Allander’s 50th anniversary. As part of this, we were thrilled to announce that we are hosting our first economic and…
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 13/08/2025
This chart shows the decomposition of the change in the notional deficit from 2023-24 to 2024-25 - devolved spending is clearly the largest factor. Even if devolved revenues grew faster in percentage terms, devolved spending is just much larger a share of the economy
Chart shows that the net fiscal balance deterioration is mostly driven by higher devolved expenditure. Reserved revenues fell, but were offset by higher devolved taxes. North Sea revenues and reserved expenditure both contributed to the worsening by smaller amounts
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire. It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.
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Kenny Stewart @kennystew.art · 13/07/2025
A bike rack with a sign that says “kangaroos must not be parked here between 8am-6pm”.
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 11/06/2025
3/ A much more insightful – though perhaps less cheery – conclusion from looking at the SFC’s forecast is that by 2028-29, funding will be £0.7 billion lower than their central estimate published on 29 May
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 11/06/2025
2/ It essentially assumes that no additional funding would have been made available for the Scottish Government in cash terms relative to that in 2025-26 – which is not a credible baseline
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 11/06/2025
1/ We have seen Labour MPs and MSPs describing the SR event as increasing the block grant by £9.1 billion over the SR period. While Barnett consequentials add up to this, it's a figure that is neither transparent nor helpful
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 11/06/2025
The SR looks like a rollercoaster ride for public services. Boosts short-term, real-terms cuts in resource and capital in the medium-term; health and defence the main winners. ScotGov budget also grows by less than @scotfisccomm.bsky.social thought 2 weeks ago: fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
fraserofallander.org
2025 Spending Review: a rollercoaster ride | FAI
Earlier today, Rachel Reeves announced in the House of Commons the outcome of the Spending Review for both resource and capital budgets across…
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
1/ As we gear up for the UK Government's main spending review, it's worth pausing and looking at how we have ended up with this slightly bizarre system of ministers settling bilaterally with the Treasury in a sort of zero-sum world where the envelope has already been set
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
This is a crucial point. The two-forecast-a-year practice in the UK is a peculiarly British thing, and a remnant of the high inflation of the 1970s, when it became codified, and subsequently was put into the BRNA 2011. There's no convincing reason to do a forecast more than once a year
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 23/05/2025
In this week's update: a flurry of announcements, from a UK-EU trade deal to public sector pay awards to winter fuel U-turns. Read all about what they mean below: fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
fraserofallander.org
Weekly update: UK-EU deal, public sector pay and U-turns | FAI
It’s been a busy week of events and announcements. The week kicked off with an announcement on a UK-EU trade deal. Some of the details on this are…
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Terry Cardy @terrycardy.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
It's now been one hour since Spurs last won a trophy. #COYS
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Arun Film 🇬🇧🇺🇦 @arunfilm.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
We bloody won! 🍻🥂🍾👏 Nobody remembers league positions years later, but they will remember that we won a trophy in 2025. May all the negative media and moaning rival fans whinge away, my Spurs are trophy winners once more! 😁 Ange in! #COYS #THFC
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 21/05/2025
Brennan Johnson strikes to clinch Europa League glory for Tottenham
theguardian.com
Brennan Johnson strikes to clinch Europa League glory for Tottenham
For Ange Postecoglou and Tottenham, there was only one story, one mission. It was not about what happens next with the manager; that can wait. It was about grasping an opportunity that does not come around very often, about emerging from what has felt like a generation’s worth of jibes; about winning. On a golden night for their longsuffering followers, they chased the baggage from their backs, they changed the narrative. Yet again, Postecoglou won in his second season at a club. For the first time since 2008, Spurs got their hands on a trophy. Continue reading...
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Jack Pitt-Brooke @jackpittbrooke.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Well I never thought I’d see the day. Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League.
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 16/05/2025
In this week's update: what's driving GDP growth? And as news of a pay deal land from NHS Scotland, is the Scottish Government following its own pay policy? Read more below: fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
fraserofallander.org
Weekly update: GDP growth and Scottish pay deals | FAI
It was good news all around for Rachel Reeves yesterday, it seemed, as the ONS announced that their first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter…
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Also would be good if more people could be blunt - the US hasn't lost out from globalisation, nor the UK. We may have managed our domestic distribution badly, and done lots of other things wrong, but comparatively we're rich.
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 04/04/2025
Tariff is not a beautiful word among economists - but it certainly is the word of the week. As the US hikes its effective tariff by over 850%, what are the likely effects domestically and globally? And how will it affect the UK's economic and fiscal outlook? Read more below:
buff.ly
Weekly update: a primer on tariffs | FAI
Despite was the US President says, tariff is – among economists – far from the most beautiful word in the English language. But it’s the word of the week…
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 28/03/2025
🎧 New podcast 🎧 Listen to our reflections on this week's spring statement, including economic conditions, the chancellor's decisions, and potential future challenges for UK and Scottish fiscal policy-making.
buff.ly
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 26/03/2025
We have now published our longer reaction to the Spring Statement, including more detail on the impact assessments of the welfare reforms and how the plans for public services spending look in historical context - read more below: fraserofallander.org/spring-state...
fraserofallander.org
Spring Statement: a second fiscal event of the year | FAI
The Chancellor may have tried to portray it otherwise, but her words in the Commons and the length of the scorecard of measures published by the OBR…
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Some pretty striking parallels. A complete failure of imagination of a world where the Chancellor doesn't feel the need to scramble to meet the fiscal rules. You either have to be okay with missing them at some forecasts, or needs a large buffer. But much like in 1931, the Chancellor has neither
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 13/03/2025
Is this a major fiscal event? How can we tell? And why is the Chancellor scrambling around to meet the fiscal rules? Could this have been foreseen? Read all about it below:
buff.ly
Duck testing the Spring Forecast | FAI
When is a Chancellor statement to the House of Commons a “major fiscal event”? The latest iteration of the Charter for Budget Responsibility says that
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Regardless of what one thinks of the policy, the PM's presentation of a £13.4bn increase in defence a year is very misleading. It would imply flat cash for defence, whereas we were already committed to 2.3%. So addition spending is £6.2bn a year from 2027 - which is why the ODA cut can fund it
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João Sousa @joaosousa.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
After over a week heading in the same direction, there can be little doubt that interest rates are a huge danger for the UK Govt. And made much worse by barely complying with the (already loose) fiscal rules. All the headroom from October is gone
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 18/12/2024
🎧 New podcast episode 🎧 Mairi Spowage and João P. Sousa join Jack Williamson to talk through the latest economic data, Scottish Budget Report, and key dates in 2025. Allison Catalano, Hannah Randolph, and Ben Cooper join to discuss some of the FAI’s 2024 highlights
buff.ly
Podcast: Post Budget Thoughts and 2024 Review | FAI
FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Jack Williamson to discuss the latest economic data, Scottish Budget Report, and key dates in 2025. The trio are then joined…
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Fraser of Allander Institute @fraserofallander.org · 05/12/2024
Some more reaction to the Scottish Budget, as we look at the affordable housing budget announcements and what we have learned from the tax strategy. Read more below:
buff.ly
Day-after reaction: Affordable housing and the tax strategy | FAI
We have now had some more time to digest the announcements from yesterday’s budget, and we’re publishing some more reaction
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