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Robert Zymek

@zymek.bsky.social
1.5K followers 315 following 34 posts

Deputy Division Chief @IMFNews | Affiliate @CESifoNetwork | PhD @UPFBarcelona | Literally almost the last economist @repec_org | Research: trade & macro. Views: my own.

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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
This morning, we published the IMF’s External Sector Report, analysing global current account balances in 2025: www.imf.org/en/publicati... Global imbalances shrank after the GFC, but have been growing again since the pandemic. This trend continued in 2025. 1/
Chart shows global current account balances falling from around 5 percent of world GDP in 2006 to around 3 percent in 2019, then rising again to nearly 4 percent by 2025.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
📈IMF April WEO📉: If the Middle East conflict remains short-lived, global growth is down to 3.1 percent in 2026 - and inflation up to 4.4 percent. More adverse impacts are possible, especially if energy supply dislocations extend into next year.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
In my experience, people are generally comfortable with the concept of real (const. price) GDP controlling for price differences across time. But even many with econ training are confounded by real (PPP) GDP controlling for price differences across space.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
The global economy continues to show resilience in the face of the tariff shock - but risks are rising. Summary of today’s IMF World Economic Outlook update: www.imf.org/en/blogs/art...
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Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format: Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL [Spatial JMCs: reply to other post]
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 14/10/2025
Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, & @zymek.bsky.social introduce the new Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database, which tracks services flows between countries over time and at the detailed sector level. They document a declining distance elasticity for services trade. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Graph of the Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database coverage.

While trade debates focus on tariffs and goods, services have quietly defied deglobalisation and become an increasingly important driver of growth. Services trade not only generates productivity spillovers and labour-market gains, but it is also where future policy tensions could emerge. Yet services trade remains under-measured and under-studied. This column introduces the new Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database, which tracks services flows between countries over time and at the detailed sector level. It documents a declining distance elasticity for services trade in recent years, which is driven by the growing importance of less distance-sensitive service categories.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
CEPR today released a new eBook on “The State of Globalisation” (edited by @baldwinre.bsky.social and Michele Ruta). It explores how technology, policy and geopolitics are transforming globalisation: cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
The state of globalisation: A new eBook
Three forces have always shaped globalisation – technology, policies, and geopolitics. What distinguishes the current moment is that all three are accelerating simultaneously but in different directions. This column introduces a new eBook showing how this divergent acceleration creates transformation rather than retreat from globalisation. But it also generates acute tension between rapidly changing economic flows and policies and slowly adapting institutions, creating fragmentation risks. Nevertheless, the multilateral system's embedded flexibility, economic value, and proven historical capacity for adaptation offer pathways towards cooperative solutions.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
📈IMF April WEO📉: 2025 global growth forecast would have been 3.2% pre-April 2 (down just 0.1 from January). It is 2.8% given the post-April 2 trade policy announcements. Even if all “tariff pauses” become permanent, global growth remains at 2.8% (but differently distributed across countries).
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Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
I stand corrected. The formula is not deficit/imports. The formula is surplus/(imports * ε * φ), where ε = -4 and φ = 0.25. That happens to equal deficits/imports. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... via @ericadyork.bsky.social
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Feodora Teti @feodorateti.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
🚨New data alert! A beta version of the Global Tariff Database is now available! 🔗https://feodorateti.github.io 🔎If you're looking for cross-country data on bilateral tariffs, this might help you.
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Pol Antras @pantras.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.
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Michael McMahon @mcmahonecon.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Today marks the 180th anniversary of the birth of great Irish/Oxford economist Francis Ysidro Edgeworth. Most remembered now by students for the Edgeworth Box, he was the founding editor of the Economic Journal and is buried less than 400 feet from the Economics Dept with a beautiful Celtic cross.
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Stephen Redding @reddingecon.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Trade talks is back! Scientific insights on trade: tradetalkspodcast.com
tradetalkspodcast.com
Trade Talks
Trade Talks, with Chad P. Bown. A podcast about the economics of trade and policy.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Nice chart by @chrisgiles.ft.com putting the scale of President Trump‘s tariff announcements in historical context. www.ft.com/content/c2e4...
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Richard Blundell @richardblundell.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
The adverse effects of trade and globalization have become politically salient in a way that many of the other determinants of inequality have not. | Trade and Inequality | The IFS-Deaton Review | all open access | academic.oup.com/ooec/article...
academic.oup.com
Trade and globalization
Greater openness to international trade has had significant impacts on the structure of the UK and other advanced economies. The role that this greater ope
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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101! They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs. Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships. 1/
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Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
New at JIE: "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?" by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (@pgourinchas.bsky.social), Andrea F. Presbitero, Petia Topalova doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.1040…
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Elisa Giannone @eligiannone.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
CALL FOR PAPERS! What: Workshop on Growth, Trade and Geography Where: BSE Summer Forum, Barcelona When: June 10-11, 2025 Submission Deadline: February 28, 2025 events.bse.eu/live/files/5... I hope to see many of you there!!! Please circulate!
events.bse.eu
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
“That will require transformational reforms to lift productivity. In many countries, resources—including workers and capital—simply aren't flowing to the most dynamic firms, dragging average global productivity growth down by 0.6 percentage points annually.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | To restore global growth, ease barriers for entrepreneurs
The United States leads the world in the efficiency of its economy. The world can catch up.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
I used to teach the history of the gravity equation in trade - but was oblivious to the long history of gravity in urban/spatial economics (until I worked on gravity and the spread of Covid-19 with Ale Cuñat: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
sciencedirect.com
The (structural) gravity of epidemics
Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological fram…
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European Space Agency @esa.int · 09/01/2025
Hello @bsky.app, here's to looking into more #bluesky and beyond... 😉
Image of the Moon, on a background of the blackness of space, and foreground at right of Earth's atmosphere in shades of blue, taken by ESA astronaut André Kuipers from the ISS in 2012.
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Stefanie Stantcheva @s-stantcheva.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
🚨New dataset alert 🚨Explore a large-scale survey of US respondents on how inflation has impacted them as consumers, workers, and asset holders. 📊 Includes rich open-ended responses and questions about emotions 👉 socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub...
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Luca Fornaro @lucafornaro.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Last Sunday Mario Draghi delivered a forceful speech, arguing that Europe has fallen into a vicious cycle of weak domestic demand, insufficient macroeconomic stimulus, depressed investment and low productivity growth cepr.org/system/files.... Here's a 🧵 on recent research related to this view.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . . on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
on.cfr.org
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
What will be the economic impact if the EU pursues its goals for EV adoption and allows China to capture a big share of the EU car market? Jiaxiong Yao and I provide some answers in this F&D article: www.imf.org/en/Publicati... (non-technical; gory details here: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...)
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Back in Barcelona for a special occasion: the 30th anniversary of CREI @upfbarcelona.bsky.social 🎉 I owe a huge debt to the people here for teaching us, by example and with much patience, what good research in international economics can look like. We need it now more than ever!
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Pau S. Pujolas @paupujolas.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
I am very excited about this paper we wrote with Jack Rossbach: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Trade Wars with Trade Deficits
Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative model, we show that trade deficits enhance a country's ability t
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 16/10/2024
By 2035, the European Union (EU) wants all new cars bought in its borders to be electric vehicles (EVs). But could rising EV imports from China pose a threat for the economy? In new IMF research we quantify this tradeoff: imf.org/en/Publication… #EVs #ElectricVehicles
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Robert Zymek @zymek.bsky.social · 04/09/2024
Check out the new issue of the IMF’s F&D magazine for insights on boosting productivity growth from a range of amazing contributors! 📈 And if you need a little explainer on why (macro)economists care about productivity, and why you should too, this B2B has you covered: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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