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Benn Steil

@bennsteil.bsky.social
342 followers 16 following 20 posts

Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations. Award-winning author, THE WORLD THAT WASN'T, THE MARSHALL PLAN, & THE BATTLE OF BRETTON WOODS. Future HC of NYJ.

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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. As I show in my latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding, U.S. steel is a case in point . . . "Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs" www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I propose a far more effective way to counter China’s unfair trade practices than tariffs—that is, by targeting the US capital account surplus with China, rather than the mirror-image current account deficit. Here's how... www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
A Better Tool to Counter China’s Unfair Trade Practices
End the tax advantage for Chinese investors in U.S. markets.
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Reposted by Benn Steil
Shannon O'Neil @shannonkoneil.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
For more timely analysis on trade, tariffs, and Trumponomics, see our new hub, with data, videos, and explainers from @cfr.org experts like @bennsteil.bsky.social @edwardalden.bsky.social and @inumanak.bsky.social 📊🔍🧵(6/6) www.cfr.org/trade-tariff...
cfr.org
Trade, Tariffs and Trumponomics
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Trump's tariff pledges, if carried out, could knock over a trillion dollars off cumulative U.S. GDP by the end of 2028. My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . . cfr.org/blog/growth-...
cfr.org
The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs
Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth.  We estimate the impact over time.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
The @CFR.org Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated. With China, by our algorithm, having shifted from a loosening to a neutral stance, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises slightly from -8.54/10 to -8.31/10. cfr.org/global/globa...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
www.cfr.org/blog/where-w...
cfr.org
Where Will Trump’s Tariff Revenues Go? His First Term Provides a Big Clue.
Nearly all of Trump’s first-term China tariff revenue went to compensate American farmers facing retaliatory tariffs. Expect a replay in 2025.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Congressional passivity in the face of one man's irrational obsession with tariff machismo is a grave abdication of constitutional responsibility.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Here is the actual post: cfr.org/blog/92-perc... "The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .
cfr.org
92 Percent of Trump’s China Tariff Proceeds Has Gone to Bail Out Angry Farmers
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
FOMC members’ 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year “dot plot” rate projections are appalling guides to actual rate-setting. Here's why this makes "forward guidance" pernicious . . . cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
cfr.org
Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance
If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
"Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance" My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . . www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
cfr.org
Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance
If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
My column in today's Barron's . . . "The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions." barrons.com/articles/fed...
barrons.com
The Fed Should Stop Giving Forward Guidance About Its Interest Rate Plans
The Fed can give forward guidance, or it can be data dependent, but not both, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a guest commentary.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
My CFR Global Imbalances Tracker is updated. The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus. www.cfr.org/report/globa...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
My CFR Global Trade Tracker is updated. After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025. www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
The logic of this audition tape op-ed is ridiculous. Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes." How does it do that, Kevin? Tighter monetary policy. wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion
wsj.com
Opinion | The Fed Can’t Pin Inflation on Trump
The central bank has the power to maintain stable prices, and there is more to the President-elect’s economic policy than tariffs.
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Reposted by Benn Steil
Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Nice illustration of how national security exceptions at the WTO have ballooned, reaching an all-time high of 95 in 2024, via @bennsteil.bsky.social, Elisabeth Harding, @cfr.org Since 2017: 🇺🇸: 30 🇲🇽: 14 🇨🇭: 12 🇧🇷: 10 🇸🇦: 8 www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Why I'm here, reason 42.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . . on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
on.cfr.org
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
My latest Barron's column argues that the surge in “national security” Notifications and the demise of the dispute settlement mechanism have effectively killed the WTO's stewardship of the multilateral trading system. (Click on the "X" at the link below for access.) www.barrons.com/articles/how...
barrons.com
The WTO Has Been Crippled by Trump and Biden’s Reliance on National Security Exemptions
The global trading regime appears unsalvageable after the Trump and Biden administrations blocked Appellate Body nominations and invoked national security, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a ...
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
The @cfr.org Sovereign Risk Tracker is updated. 10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela. on.cfr.org/48kSWoC
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Benn Steil @bennsteil.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
My latest @cfr.org blog post . . . "How Trump Can Control the Fed" on.cfr.org/4hRo3xj
on.cfr.org
How Trump Can Control the Fed
Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way.
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