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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 2h

@markpackuk.bsky.social I think we've found one of the 27% of voters in the East Midlands open to voting Lib Dem!

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Reposted by William Lane

The British electorate contains multitudes, as does this man.

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'You know Bilbo and Gandalf's adventures on the way back from Erebor that Tolkien vaguely aludes to on the last couple of pages of the Hobbit?' 'Yeah?' 'Fire up the CGI renders because I've got an idea for another 10 seasons of Amazon Prime Exclusive TV!'

Yeah definitely, I think there's a classic 'don't scare the horses'/mumble mumble 'yes Brexit isn't great but...' mumble mumble Tory fudge response that could work, but that isn't Badenoch's style. Plus, if they don't vigorously defend Brexit, what do the Tories have to show for their 14yrs in Gov?

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I think it also pretty much guarantees those existing LD seats in the SE stay LD regardless of anything else. People really forget that the SE had the 2nd highest remain vote in England as it cuts against the 'True Blue Tory' stereotype, but it did. Most of the leave voting LD seats are in the SW.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 10h

FWIW I think it would, there's actually quite a few older soft-pro EU Tories knocking about who won't go Reform for obvious reasons but aren't really interested in the LDs. Until now there's not really been a wedge issue to prise them off the Tories (ECHR is too wonkish), but this might.

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@sundersays.bsky.social puts up with so much ridiculous abuse online from people who are so lost in their own racist sauce that they entirely miss how ridiculous their opinions sound to 95% of the country 'I want to use the 1700 Act of Settlement to ban Kemi from being an MP' - do you hear yourself

Daniel Sugarman @danielsugarman.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Reposted by William Lane

The contrast with the UK - where for all our many faults, a politician who originally came here as a child refugee from Somalia was just elected to a seat in Parliament last night - is striking.

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Callum May @callummay.co.uk · 09/10/2026

Anonymous sources are bad, says an anonymous source.

Greens do 'things differently', says source over former deputy's criticism
A Green Party source has responded to earlier comments from Caroline Lucas on the party's motion at its conference over the weekend.
They say: "There are ups and downs in politics and when people are passionate they disagree in the heat of a campaign."
The source adds: "We do things differently, unlike Labour who use anonymous sources and resort to factionalism."

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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I think this is often driven by media class overcompensation for fear of metropolitan bias: a lack of proper engagement across geography, social class lines leads to a weird caricature of public opinion, as if the radicalised online group must be speaking up for authentic public opinion

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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There is a rather wider minority for abolishing the Monarchy (about 1 in 5 to 1 in 4) than for the controversy of whether only white people can be English (1 in 10). It is weird the media classes are so rarely across how niche this 'controversy' is - about 1/4 Reform voters, but few others

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This is a good lesson to remember tbh Modern history tends to focus a lot on revolutions of various flavors (liberal/marxist/fascist etc.), but it's worth remembering just how rare they were until very recently So yeah if one happened while you were in power, it tended to mean you messed up badly

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

And that's before you get to the cultural/social arguments and idea of 'Europe' (which we are absolutely counted in by basically everyone I've ever spoken to on the continent). It doesn't mean that we're going to get a parade if we rejoin, but it makes it an obvious plus (hokey-cokey aside).

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Without wishing to be overly cynical, the EU could definitely do with another net budget contributor (especially one that was second largest when it was last in the union). Plus having us in the tent again solves so many European defence and foreign policy snarls.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This person was surveyed in May-June of this year, so I'm comfortable saying that 'previous government' here is referring to the Tories (although tbf we don't know whether that includes the entire 14 years).

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Interesting to see a LD voter who apparently doesn't think Brexit mattered all that much to the economy.

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Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Very good and clear-sighted piece about what's going on with French bonds. It ain't great and the potential consequences would be ruinous for pro-Europeans paulkrugman.substack.com/p/whats-the-...

paulkrugman.substack.com

What’s the Matter With France?

Is Europe’s #2 economy too big to save?

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

...? The love that middle england has for Paddington Bear should not be underestimated, especially since the success of the recent films. This is just another data point showing how america-brained and overly online the UK right is becoming.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

As somone with friends and siblings in their mid-20s; this is just obviously not true and a sign of how out of touch the Tories are with anything even approaching youth culture that they think that it is. The problem is not willingness to work, the problem is a lack of quality jobs.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

(IMO I think we're going to end up with a Lib-Lab government for the first time since the 1970s, but a hung parliament could also throw up any number of *exciting* possibilities. I don't think anyone aside from maybe Labour could get a majority though).

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The traditional answer to what happens when a struggling Labour government hits global economic headwinds is: 'The Tories get into power for another 15 years'. The fact that it is quite literally impossible for this to happen at the moment is causing all sorts of weirdness within our system.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

In Sicily at the moment, and took a trip to Cefalu yesterday. It's a lovely town with a wonderful historic centre and impressive cathedral.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Fancy a look at English policy debates regarding Europe in 1702? The more things change, the more they stay the same. (From George Owers 'Rage of Party')

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

@markpackuk.bsky.social has discussed this recently, including by doing analysis on @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social's recently polling on the topic. It does look like there's a decent chunk of the country that is interested in the LDs. The big question for them is how to turn passive into active support.

libdemnewswire.substack.com

The geography of Liberal Democrat potential (LDN#214)

Welcome to Lib Dem Newswire #214, which takes a look at the geography of Lib Dem support, includes advice on how to react to stories about hung Parliaments, explains why “Let Bartlet Be Bartlet” is ba...

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I mean it goes well with the the long standing pepperpots!

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Their current strategy maxes out at about 100 seats, but if they're willing to make some tweaks here and there I think they could break out of that once they've had enough time to bed down in their existing seats and built up trust with those voters.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I'm pretty bullish on them in the medium term for a few main reasons: 1) the Tories are Not Well/British Liberalism appears to be splitting from the Tories for good 2) they finally have a vaguely cohesive electoral coalition 4) More of the country is becoming potential LD territory over time

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Agreed, and I've made this point before. One thing I do think you can tie phones to more directly is collapsing birthrates worldwide, which is definitely a part of this story but by no means the only or maybe even main part.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

100% It will depend a lot on whether she's willing to let him do his own thing, but her recent statements ('it's my Conservative Party now'), make that seem...unlikely.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Tbf the fact that this group are overrepresented in London does make me think that Cleverly's mayoral campaign may have some legs, as long as he's able to climb out of the shadow of the national Tory party (which is a *big* ask). If he can be a bit more liberal and pro-EU than the party that is.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The long tail of Brexit basically stops that person viewing the Tories as a viable option, especially as the LDs present a partial solution to their representative needs and Reform dominate the conservation on the right The only people I know who fit the bill who do vote Tory have *a lot* of money

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

I think there's a fair argument that as the LDs fall into a bit of a rut and Labour disappoints, those kinds of voters could be tempted to back a small 'l' liberal centre-right party. The issue is that is not what the Tories currently look like.

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

In my family of formerly staunch Middle England Tories this has gone down like a bucket of cold sick. Plenty of Tories do in fact like the environment and while the party is saying that this won't apply to housing I'm not sure that message will cut through compared to abolition itself.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

...as long as the party was still making the case for broader culturally liberal values and europeanism (and it was seen to be expanding rather than stagnating its voter base).

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Sorry missed this at the time. I think that honestly depends on the MP! My guess is that someone like Roz Savage would want to go the former route, and someone like Chris Coghlan would want to try the latter. The membership would probably prefer the former, but IMO could accept the latter...

William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It's mad because its not like 'community services and institutions are an important source of local cohesion' is an alien concept to Conservatism! There's an obvious Conservative argument for funding public services in the face of political and economic discontent, but no one is making it.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Is the Austrian far right still interested in combining with Germany? Or have they gone down a more Austrian nationalist route?

Chuck Groenink @cgroenink.bsky.social · 10/02/2026

Reposted by William Lane

I’ve been having some fun exploring Earthsea lately.

A black and white drawing of a wooden house on a cliff

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The utter contempt radiating out of her is honestly kind of shocking. This is what happens when you're never challenged by anyone internally, and then suddenly you get even the mildest pushback in front of a hot mic.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Merz zooming in from a latop in his attic loft is by far the most relatable thing he's ever done.

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The fact that it's impossible to imagine the Nazis ruling their eastern conquests via local elites (like say the British did in parts of India) makes this point well. Fascism is unable to even admit even the basic humanity of those it conquers.

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 02/10/2026

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no I'm sorry who told Le Monde we were calling it "Breturn", own up

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Benjamin @benjaminschneider.ch · 01/10/2026

just came across this incredible picture of Terry Pratchett

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William Lane @williamjtlane.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

And while this wasn't so much of an issue when Starmer was Labour leader (given that he also had this issue), now that Burnham has come out swinging on both policy and ideology/worldview the disparity is stark.