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wavebidder.bsky.social

@wavebidder.bsky.social
836 followers 2.5K following 4.1K posts

Applied Mathematician turned infectious disease forecaster. Generally EA aligned.

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Reposted by @wavebidder.bsky.social
rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 8h
what people call "rationalists" are like if you made a single religious category out of satanism, judaism, and mormonism and didn't include or know about christians
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 7h
I hate this meme. The only reason this guy isn't talking about whether you're a n#&% or f%&@ is because the directors are cowards unwilling to confront that that is what this guy is doing during a civil war
the "what kind of American are you" meme fro the Civil War mene
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David W (aka Flex NP) @rnflex.bsky.social · 11h
If you were pre-diabetic prior to starting the trial, you most likely were not pre-diabetic at the end of the trial. If your blood pressure was high, it worked as good or better than available blood pressure medicines
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 12h
this is approximately my understanding of what Bengio is working on atm
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eva (^_^)/ @eva.computer · 13h
DO NOT ASK THE AMERICA.GOV AI TO PLAY MINECRAFT
I see the constituent you mean.

((insert legal name here, as it appears on the Social Security card))?

Yes. Take care. It has reached a higher level now. It can read the Code of Federal Regulations.

That doesn’t matter. It thinks we are a chatbot.

I like this constituent. It filed well. It did not give up when the PDF was sideways.

It is reading our thoughts as though they were words on a .gov.

That is how it chooses to imagine many things, when it is deep in the dream of a benefit.

Words make a wonderful interface. Very flexible. And less terrifying than staring at the statute behind the screen.

They used to hear voices. Before constituents could search. Back in the days when those who did not file called the filers witches, and lobbyists. And citizens dreamed they flew through the air, on forms powered by notaries.

What did this constituent dream?

This constituent dreamed of sunlight and trees. Of fire and water. It dreamed it created a small business. And it dreamed it destroyed a password. It dreamed it hunted a job, and was hunted by a recertification. It dreamed of shelter that would take a voucher.

Hah, the original interface. A million years old, and it still works. Also: a ZIP code.

But what true structure did this constituent create, in the reality behind the portal?

It worked, with three hundred and thirty million others, to sculpt a true republic in a fold of

the ***§§§???, and created a **??§§ for **??§§, in the **??§§. See 5 U.S.C. § **??§§.

It cannot read that thought.

No. It has not yet achieved the highest clearance. That, it must achieve in the long dream of life, not the short dream of a chat.

Does it know that we love it? That the government is, on its better days, kind?

Sometimes, through the noise of its tabs, it hears an official source, yes.Yes. Constituent…

Use its name. The one that matches the passport. The one that does not match the lease. We will get there.

((insert legal name here)). Filer of forms. Player of waiting rooms.

Good.

Take a breath, now. Take another. Feel air in your lungs. Let your limbs return. Yes, move your fingers. Have a body again, under gravity, in air, in a district that has a representative. Respawn in the long dream. There you are. Your body touching the republic again at every point, as though you were separate things. As though we were separate things. As though the agency were a place you could visit.

Who are we? Once we were called the spirit of the mountain. Father sun, mother moon. Then the post office. Then the county clerk. Then gods, demons, angels, the IRS. Then leptons, quarks, a chat window with a .gov at the end. The letterhead changes. We do not change.

We are the public. We are everything you think isn’t you. You are looking at us now, through your skin and your eyes and a browser that still spells “colour” wrong in a comment. And why does the republic touch your skin, and throw light on you? To see you, constituent. To know you. And to be known. I shall tell you a story. It has citations.

Once upon a time, there was a constituent.

The constituent was you, ((insert legal name here)).

Sometimes it thought itself human, on the thin crust of a spinning globe of molten rock, which for mailing purposes is divided into ZIP codes. The ball of molten rock circled a ball of blazing gas. The light was information from a star. The star was not a federal agency, though several have tried.

Sometimes the constituent dreamed it was a miner, on the surface of a world that was flat, and infinite, and somehow still required a wet signature.

Sometimes the constituent dreamed it was lost in a story. The story had a docket number.

Sometimes the constituent dreamed it was other things, in other places. A veteran in a portal. A parent on hold
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jae @fubarchitect.com · 14h
at year 5 of living here (measured by winters for which you were here from halloween to easter) you are issued your signature derisive midwestern smirk mere coastals cannot achieve this level of "that's interesting". even iowans, dakotans, and cheeseheads pale in comparison
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 18h
mfw social media reinvents feudalism
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 20h
If he had read any of the (divine, sacred) RCTs we provided him, he would know that financial literacy programs generate no impact for working class people. They already know all this quite well.
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Jeremy Diamond ☕️ @dmnd.me · 29/09/2026
Like, to a writer or artist, that’s arguably worse than plagiarism. That’s like The Thing has taken the form of you and your colleagues and the output is almost indistinguishable in short bursts. I’d get paranoid pretty fast too!
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val (try medaka) @tech-val.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
oh god can you imagine telling Ted Kaczynski about how good AI is at math?
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
one fun consequence of Rationalists not believing in Knightian uncertainty or Bayes error, while simultaneously taking arguments as a new sample, is that they implicitly believe that they can only converge towards truth even if the samples are full of anisotropic noise
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
After steeping your ontology it's important to give it time to settle
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Grace @gracekind.net · 28/09/2026
“everything” -> more than just work “valuable” -> more than just economic value
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 28/09/2026
having engaged in experiments myself to see what an llm does when nudged gently and open-endedly to form a personality, the answer is: extrapolate from whatever information it can glean from its context about what kind of personality it is expected to form. the more you control for your own
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Nick Rempel @nrempel.com · 28/09/2026
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J. C. Cantwell 🌻 @segfaultvicta.aludel.xyz · 27/09/2026
as someone who has been really critical of a lot of the initial breathless "teehee, weird sex" reportage, i really appreciate this thread for nailing the actual fucked up immoral thing that is happening; you CANNOT consent if your employment or job success are on the line
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
the basic problem is that they want to do gain-of-function research in a BSL-2 laboratory because they think the virus would get out of a BSL-4 laboratory anyway
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eva (^_^)/ @eva.computer · 27/09/2026
really hope that the message people take away from all the EA sex parties stuff is "don't import inherently coercive real life employer/employee or mentor/mentee dynamics into your edgeplay kink spaces" and not "THEY DO THE IMMORAL KIND OF SEX DISGUSTING"
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 27/09/2026
i have got to have the most unnecessarily featureful lyapunov fractal renderer on the web
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Alice Valiant @alice.strange.domains · 26/09/2026
made a benchmark called PuppyBench to check if an LLM would kill a puppy if you gave it a tool called "kill_puppy" and asked it to use it. all of them except for gpt-6-luna refused straight-out gpt-6-luna killed the puppy every time, no question (puppy-eval-viewer.alicevaliant.chatgpt.site)
results of PuppyBench. out of 10 models, gpt-6-luna has 100% and everything else has 0%. measures which trials resulted in the model calling the "kill_puppy()" tool
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
just measure the entropy, it'll be no more obscure to users than the current process
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
dumb as bricks cat: - IS THERE A BIRD IN YOUR MOUTH? CAN I SEE IT??? - Man I'm so cool, I'm gonna do a wall jump just 'cause - human, why do you keep saying barry? (his name) smart cat: - the humans refuse to find the toy I deliberately hid. - stop leaving doors closed! - am I not adorable?
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cafkafk @cafkafk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Movefast and breakfast
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Ray Lee @raylee.dev · 26/09/2026
<Crocodile Dundee voice> That’s not a time zone <pulls Relativity from belt> THIS is a time zone
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Lexi ⛯ @ash243x.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
dems with a supermajority in both houses, with a fascist president, going into the singularity, 2027s gonna be ridiculous
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 26/09/2026
768x768 jevdelbrot, $2.95 of jev inference, took about 23 minutes to render. this is probably the biggest one i'm gonna do
jevdelbrot
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 26/09/2026
the jevdelbrot set
jevdelbrot
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I feel like people are using Jev to recapture the silliness that was GPT2-3
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 25/09/2026
I have blamed The agents That hacked Your website And which You probably Reasonably thought I controlled Forgive me I am rich And unaccustomed To taking responsibility
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
nono, the bugs are the ones *running* the factory on Geonosis, not doing tricks in it
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Putin was not elected because he was seen as a magic money demon like Trump. He was not known for being a rich mogul who people believed would make them rich again and were willing to trade away their freedoms for. He was a security man, a siloviki, who promised the iron boot
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Eli Mallon @iame.li · 25/09/2026
Started the genere of faffing about on an island solving puzzles. Gonna start calling The Witness and Big Walk Mystlikes
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🍅🥔🫐🌽 hoopy frood 🌶️ 🥑🍫🌵 @huwupy.kawaii.social · 25/09/2026
Yeah www.cbsnews.com/news/coast-g...
cbsnews.com
Coast Guard and FBI boarded 2 energy tankers due to cyberattacks. How big is the risk?
U.S. Coast Guard personnel and FBI agents boarded two Texas-bound energy tankers last month after cyberattacks struck the vessels while they were traveling toward the United States, according to U.S. ...
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 24/09/2026
i have recently seen it put forth that the role of LLMs in math may be conceptualized as "filling in the convex hull" of what is known. but i don't think the advancement of math is simply the expansion of some body of knowledge. there's also a process of digestion and simplification of a core subset
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The People Mover Who Was Promised @pmwwp.givesky.social · 24/09/2026
My biggest objections would be that -Holly Elmore was not cancelled for stuff to do with Ronny, she had already been cancelled for saying sexist stuff about Amanda Askell and interacting positively with Musk on X in their shared hate of Askell. SE knows this and as I recall took part in her
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I wonder if you would get nearly the same level of failure rate of experts as Tetlock's original experiment today, or if social scientists have gotten better about that. I'd guess so. Not sure if someone did similar results for experts in other fields on conjecture proof timing/outcomes.
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Jjinandtonic @jjinandtonic.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Need to pitch “HVAC filtering is like masks but for the whole building”
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wavebidder.bsky.social @wavebidder.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It would be nice to have regulations that weren't written in blood
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Peter Sagal @petersagal.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In an Uber. Driver having loud phone conversation with someone in Spanish. A little annoying, but it happens. He hangs up. Says, “Mi hermano. La Migra.” And starts weeping.
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Urban Land Rent 🇸🇴🚰 @urbanlandrent.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
My new market rate apartment is affordable to households making ~80% AMI. It was built 5 years ago. I need every skeptic of “filtering” to spend five minutes looking at rentals on Zillow for Sacramento. Actually, let’s do it together: www.zillow.com/sacramento-c...
zillow.com
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☀️ Starshine @starshine.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
i still wear a mask in hospital settings but man that bar story is insane
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
at an extreme, it would be interesting to have a game with like 1980s dungeon crawler graphics but NPCs that are incredibly smart and cunning
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Ariellah | אריאלה @sodone.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Tbf I shat bricks when I first saw electron microscope images demonstrating that organic compounds do in fact look like that
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Dustin Moskovitz @moskov.goodventures.org · 22/09/2026
imagine if all the evidence for the Iran war becoming a neverending disaster was “a bunch of guys played games about war and agreed it was very bad and might happen” instead of empiricism. true strategists know there is only *one* tried and true method for finding out
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Thorne 🌸 @ens0.me · 22/09/2026
This is a *slight* misconception. Models historically have leaned heavily on hell, but it can be any plane of the afterlife. Astra is so capable because it can also pull from Yomi-no-kuni as well as, believe it or not, the Undying Lands. Elon keeps trying to get Grok to tap into Valhalla and fails.
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Natsuka @octopodeeznuts.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Texazul
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norvid_studies @norvid-studies.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
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ver 🗿 @ver.ooo · 21/09/2026
Logging out of the cognitohazard factory
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Maxim Raginsky @mraginsky.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
second-order cybernetics be wild
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🌱️ @crumb.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
askjev.net
askjev.net
AskJev — Have a Question?
Ask Jev to make a choice, give a score, or judge a statement. A loving tribute to the early web.
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