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Anthony Wiskich @twiskich.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Early results from an upcoming working paper on autonomous battery trucks. Key message: in terms of battery competitiveness with diesel for long-haul heavy trucks, autonomy is roughly equivalent to a battery pack price reduction of AUS$50/kWh. www.linkedin.com/pulse/slow-s...

linkedin.com

Slow and steady wins the race: how autonomy facilitates long-haul truck electrification

I’m seeking feedback on some early results from a parameterised model looking at the effects of autonomy on the competitiveness and operation of battery-powered heavy-duty long-haul trucks. Represents...

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Anthony Wiskich @twiskich.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

I have written about optimally pricing methane versus CO2 from a social cost perspective where there is a risk of catastrophic damage from climate tipping events. I find results more consistent with GWP100 than GWP20 from this perspective. bsky.app/profile/twis...

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Anthony Wiskich @twiskich.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

New research paper on how long-distance container shipping can be electrified (and hence decarbonised) in Research in Transportation Economics. #ClimateEconomics #ClimatePolicy #Decarbonisation #Shipping @cleanshipping.bsky.social @csiropublishing.bsky.social authors.elsevier.com/a/1lkeQ2eEmT...

authors.elsevier.com

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Policy implications. Climate: electrified and autonomous vehicles will reduce warming. Infrastructure: more car travel, less (and bigger) air travel. Competition policy: less air travel affects ticket prices. Social cohesion: brings together southeastern Australia, but not the west/east coasts.

Impacts on personal domestic aviation passengers, relative to the counterfactual. Personal air passengers in the busiest Melbourne-Sydney route reduced by 63%, with less effect on the longer Melbourne-Brisbane route. Overnight robotaxis are most used when N=4 for distances between 600 and 1000 km.

Personal air passengers in the busiest Melbourne-Sydney route reduce by 63%, with less effect on the longer Melbourne-Brisbane route. Overnight robotaxis most used when N=4 for distances between 600 and 1000 km.

Aggregate impacts on personal domestic aviation from comparative static scenarios. Scenarios: EV=Electric vehicle, AV=Autonomous vehicles, ON=Overnight robotaxis, Cspd=Increased car speed, Tax=Carbon tax on aviation.

Average flight distances increase due to greater reductions on shorter flights.

Elasticities vary with travel distance.

Elasticities reduce in magnitude as distances increase.

This is the main data and a simple fitted model (excludes individual route price data) for solo travellers (N=1) and groups (N>1). Marker size reflects the number of air trips. We estimate a discrete choice disutility model with car and air travel modes using Bayesian priors.

Shows increasing air trip share with geodesic distance.

Combining in turn electrification, autonomy, the use of overnight robotaxis, a 10 kph increase in average car speeds, and an AUS$200/tCO2e carbon tax leads to personal air passenger reductions of 5%, 19%, 22%, 28% and 43%, respectively.

Driving Down Personal Aviation Demand | Crawford School of Public Policy

Working paper on reduced personal air travel due to electrified, autonomous personal vehicles/robotaxis. The model is based on Australian travel data and illustrates potential long-run effects eg decarbonisation/contrails. #econ #energy #transport #autonomy crawford.anu.edu.au/cama/content...

crawford.anu.edu.au

Vol: 48/2025 Author: Anthony Wiskich Year: 2025 Month: August

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The densities of lines/markers in Panels A rises with battery densities (50,200,1000 Wh/kg), with blue/red representing on-ship/off-ship approaches. The panel shows fuel use per transport work relative to the "Current" scenario without a carbon price.

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Reposted by Anthony Wiskich

Seeking input from technical shipping/electrical experts on the challenges and potential solutions to powering large ships (eg container) using separate battery vessels en route. There are economic advantages to separating batteries from the ship - a new paper considers this "off-ship" approach ...

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I need help on this (possible configurations including alongside/astern vessels like naval refuelling or tighter integration, dynamic cable limitations). I consider future scenarios (say >2040) so thoughts on where tech is heading welcome. The paper is in R&R and I hope will be available soon.

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...and increase gradually as more segments electrify, while optimal battery adoption is "all-or-nothing" in the on-ship approach. The chart shows future scenarios with a US$200 carbon price. But how feasible is powering a large vessel en route through a cable?...

Gradual fuel reductions in the off-ship approach (blue) as battery pack prices decline cf "all-or-nothing" battery adoption in the on-ship approach (red). Line density rises with gravimetric energy density (50,200,1000 Wh/kg).

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One advantage relates to flexibility, such as the potential for partial electrification across some segments over a long route with many stops ( I look at a China to Europe itinerary for a hybrid container ship ). Fuel reductions start at higher battery pack prices cf batteries "on-ship"...

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Anthony Wiskich @twiskich.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

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Thanks Scott - please add me ✋

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Anthony Wiskich @twiskich.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

New open access article on 'Clean innovation, heterogeneous financing costs, and the optimal climate policy mix'. With Emanuele Campiglio and Alessandro Spiganti. @jeem-econ.bsky.social #econsky doi.org/10.1016/j.je...

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