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Temur Umarov

@tumarov.bsky.social
1.4K followers 197 following 122 posts

Fellow at @carnegieendowment.org I write about Central Asia for @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/people/temur-…

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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
🎥 Recording | #Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev @joannalillis.bsky.social, @tumarov.bsky.social and Annette Bohr @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social discussed successes, shortcomings, and future direction of #Uzbekistan under Mirziyoyev. 👇 www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Joanna Lillis @joannalillis.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
If you missed it last week, the @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social panel with @tumarov.bsky.social and me talking about #Uzbekistan's decade under Mirziyoyev is now available to watch at this link - tune in! www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev
Hear from experts on the successes, shortcomings and future direction of Uzbekistan’s economic and reform agenda under President Mirziyoyev.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Joanna Lillis @joannalillis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Coming up today: @tumarov.bsky.social and I will talk online at @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social about #Uzbekistan's decade under Shavkat Mirziyoyev - register here to tune in at 1800 Tashkent time/1400 UK/0900 ET. There's a lot to unpack, so don't miss it! www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev
Hear from experts on the successes, shortcomings and future direction of Uzbekistan’s economic and reform agenda under President Mirziyoyev.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
📢 Event Reminder | #Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev | 23 Sept, 14:00 BST | online Panelists: @joannalillis.bsky.social, @tumarov.bsky.social & Annette Bohr @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social. Register to join this discussion online: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Don't miss the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode on the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek and how member states use the organization to pursue their policy objectives. With @alexgabuev.bsky.social, Eva Seiwert, and @tumarov.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org
The SCO at 25: A Eurasian Colossus or Anti-American Talk Shop?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Eva Seiwert, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, and Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss the recent...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
"With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them," writes @tumarov.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org
As It Turns 25, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Reflects the New World Order
With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them. My latest for @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
As It Turns 25, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Reflects the New World Order
With the growth in points of friction between the great powers, organizations like the SCO will continue to play a role in the strategic adaptation of the smaller powers caught between them.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Joanna Lillis @joannalillis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Coming up: #Uzbekistan 10 years on: Temur Umarov (马铁木) and I will be talking online at Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme on 23 September. Register here www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
Uzbekistan: assessing 10 years of rule under Mirziyoyev
Hear from experts on the successes, shortcomings and future direction of Uzbekistan’s economic and reform agenda under President Mirziyoyev.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Unlike the rest of Central Asia, #Tajikistan failed to exploit opportunities that the war in Ukraine opened across the Eurasian space. Nor did Dushanbe succeed in dodging the new crises. Why? Read this in-depth @tumarov.bsky.social and Ruslan Norov article for ridl.io ridl.io/tajikistan-a...
ridl.io
Tajikistan and Russia: The Syndromes of Missed Opportunity and Neglected Attention – Riddle Russia
Temur Umarov and Ruslan Norov on how the war in Ukraine has reshaped relations between Dushanbe and Moscow
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? Listen to the latest Carnegie Politika podcast episode with @alexgabuev.bsky.social and @tumarov.bsky.social here:
carnegieendowment.org
How Is Central Asia Weathering the Iran War?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Temur Umarov, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to discuss how the countries of Central Asia are being affected by the war in neighboring Iran and how t...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
By refusing to extradite Russian opposition activists in the first years of the war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan built a reputation as the region’s most pro-Western nation. In the Trump era, it has no need for such a reputation. @ceip-politika.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
While Moscow and Beijing benefit from a distracted U.S., their support for Tehran has clear ceilings. @alexgabuev.bsky.social @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Really enjoyed this episode of Turan Tales by @aga-pik.bsky.social with @skhashimov.bsky.social about Dushanbe.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Central Asia has seen a significant increase in a covert system of re-export flows back to Russia. Much of this trade is lawful, but investigative reporting & trade data patterns indicate that certain categories of tech have transited the region before reaching RUS open.substack.com/pub/thesarat...
open.substack.com
From Dubai to Donetsk: The Kyrgyzstan–UAE Transit Nexus in Russia’s Clandestine Starlink Supply Chain
by Sergey Sukhankin
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Had a great conversation with @peterleonard1.bsky.social: Central Asia's transition puzzle: A quiet coup, constitution-tinkering, and a vanishing leader. open.substack.com/pub/havli/p/...
open.substack.com
Central Asia's transition puzzle: A quiet coup, constitution-tinkering, and a vanishing leader
A high-level dismissal in Kyrgyzstan, rushed constitutional reform in Kazakhstan, and the Tajik president's lengthy absence reveal transition pressures beneath the surface.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Sadyr Japarov appears to be on the brink of achieving what none of his predecessors managed: making Kyrgyzstan a personalist autocracy. My latest for @ceip-politika.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Where Does the Split in the Ruling Tandem Leave Kyrgyzstan?
Despite its reputation as an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan appears to be on the brink of becoming a personalist autocracy.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
pannierb.bsky.social @pannierb.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
A BIG thank you to Catherine Putz, editor at @thediplomat.com & @tumarov.bsky.social of @carnegierussia.bsky.social for being on Spotlight on Central Asia to review regional cooperation in 2025.(open.spotify.com/episode/1Sye...) And thanks to our sponsors @timesca.com the Oxus Society!
open.spotify.com
Retaliation, Raids and Regional Integration,
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Ahead of President Putin's arrival in Kyrgyzstan for high-level talks and the CSTO summit, a colossal welcome billboard was erected in Bishkek. This display was positioned with deliberate precision, effectively obscuring the Ukrainian Embassy from view...
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Yan Matusevich @ymatusik.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Former Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev comes out with a scathing public statement against the current authoritarian regime under Sadyr Japarov. Lots of people will roll their eyes because Atambayev contributed to the undermining of democratic institutions kaktus.media/doc/535418_a...
kaktus.media
Алмазбек Атамбаев раскритиковал деятельность Садыра Жапарова и вспомнил друзей президента
Бывший президент Алмазбек Атамбаев сделал открытое обращение к президенту Садыру Жапарову и раскритиковал его работу не только на посту главы государства, но и ранее. Он надеется, что в стране снова б...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Read the full article @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
The current optimistic rhetoric is fraught w/ danger. Trump may eventually demand more (distancing from China/Russia) as an ultimatum, forcing the region to make a difficult choice: 1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN 2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Why trump is a better partner? Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
US attention is geopolitical gold For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Central Asia is adapting its entire ideological agenda to impress one man: Donald Trump. The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵
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The Eurasian Climate Brief @eurasianclimate.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
(1/4) #CentralAsia is among the world's most vulnerable regions to #climatechange. And while some countries are heavily reliant on #fossilfuels, there is potential for #renewables across this entire part of the world. Let's take a closer look...
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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
While the active presence of China and Russia in Central Asia is nothing new, the current level of attention from the U.S. is unusual for a region located far from the major global crises. @tumarov.bsky.social explains why Central Asia remains in Trump's focus: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Why Is Central Asia Buying Trump’s Attention?
The current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstra...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
The current US administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract attention & there's no need for demonstrative distancing from Russia or commitment to democratic reforms. @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Why Is Central Asia Buying Trump’s Attention?
The current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstra...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
China Has Flooded Central Asia With Electric Cars—the Impact Will Be Long-Lasting
By entering this new stage of development of the automotive industry via Chinese electric cars, Central Asia will eventually be forced to adopt Chinese standards for the industry’s development, integr...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline?
Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.
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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis
The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.
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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Moscow’s Xenophobic Migration Policy Is Impacting Relations With Central Asia
By stirring up anti-migrant sentiment to distract Russian society from the war in Ukraine, Moscow is alienating its allies in Central Asia. Following Azerbaijan’s example, Central Asian countries are ...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Why is Beijing opening a flurry of technical training centers known as Luban Workshops in Central Asia, and what is their significance? Edward Lemon and Bradley Jardine explain.
carnegieendowment.org
China Is Using Vocational Training Centers to Rebuild Its Image in Central Asia
In Central Asia, Beijing is learning to adapt. The era of raw economic assertiveness is giving way to a more nuanced strategy that fuses investment with education, infrastructure with human capital, a...
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
Yan Matusevich @ymatusik.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Props to @tumarov.bsky.social for very skillfully describing the cult of raw power being created by Tashiev, the Sopranos-esque head of Kyrgyzstan’s rapidly expanding security services youtu.be/cQeb5cdHs1I?...
youtu.be
Могу и «отлупить»: культ силы Ташиева
YouTube video by Kloop на русском
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Beyond the much-discussed trade figures, new projects, & investments, the China+Central Asia summit holds another dimension. W/ @peterleonard1.bsky.social @capsunlock.bsky.social we delved into the visibility of local agency operating behind the scenes: pod.link/1781868199
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Yan Matusevich @ymatusik.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Great interview by @tumarov.bsky.social where he meticulously outlines the rapid authoritarian consolidation underway in Kyrgyzstan. Japarov is very diligently speed-running his way to authoritarianism in attempt to catch up with neighboring states storage.googleapis.com/qurium/kloop...
storage.googleapis.com
«Учебник автократа». Темур Умаров — о том, как из Кыргызстана делают диктатуру
Президент Кыргызстана ускоренными темпами превращает страну в классический авторитарный режим — с подавлением СМИ, зачисткой оппозиции, устрашением элит и культом «своего парня у власти». Эксперт по Ц...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, none of the five Central Asian governments have any grievances against one another. Had a great conversation on Central Asia with LRT: www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
lrt.lt
Expert: Russia and China will not clash in Central Asia – interview
A notable shift is taking place among the five Central Asian countries — instead of clashing, they are working to consol...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
It was an honor to be the guest of the final episode of THE podcast on Central Asia, the Majlis Podcast, hosted by the one&only @pannierb.bsky.social. Together w/ Bakyt Beshimov & @nargiskassenova.bsky.social, we've discussed Central Asia's position in global politics: www.rferl.org/a/majlis-rus...
rferl.org
Central Asia's New Position In Global Politics
A lot has changed in Central Asia in the more than three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As countries in the region seek to loosen Moscow and Beijing's grip on the region, how far...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Had a great conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska for her new media Turan Tales on China-Central Asia: Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...
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Internationale Politik Quarterly @ipq.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
From our spring issue: @tumarov.bsky.social on the de-risking dilemma. ip-quarterly.com/en/de-riskin...
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Yan Matusevich @ymatusik.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Kyrgyzstan arrests four people in the city of Osh for allegedly recruiting mercenaries to fight for Russia in Ukraine. Among those arrested is a representative of the Russian House in Osh and a member of the mayor’s communications team www.currenttime.tv/a/kyrgyzstan...
currenttime.tv
Сотрудницу Русского дома в Кыргызстане и еще троих человек арестовали по делу о вербовке наемников в армию РФ
В Кыргызстане задержали четырех человек по делу о вербовке наемников. Об этом сообщает кыргызская служба Радио Свобода/Азаттык. Пресс-служба Первомайского районного суда Бишкека в пресс-релизах указал...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
The Central Asia gang in the Hague ☀️ @irnahofman.bsky.social @plovism.bsky.social
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Future problems cannot be ruled out, but for the first time since the Soviet collapse, none of the five Central Asian governments have any political grievances against each other. Why now and what's next for Central Asia: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Central Asian States Have Put Aside Their Territorial Disputes. Why Now?
Future problems cannot be ruled out, but for the first time since the Soviet collapse, none of the five Central Asian governments have any political grievances against each other.
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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
“For the first time since the Soviet collapse, none of the five Central Asian governments have any political grievances against each other.“ @tumarov.bsky.social and Alibek Mukambayev on the landmark agreements to resolve border disputes in Central Asia: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Central Asian States Have Put Aside Their Territorial Disputes. Why Now?
Future problems cannot be ruled out, but for the first time since the Soviet collapse, none of the five Central Asian governments have any political grievances against each other.
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Reposted by Temur Umarov
The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 08/04/2025
#OpEd Apart from the economic obstacles facing the U.S. plan, Russia is extremely unlikely to want to contain China — they have too much in common, writes @tumarov.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org
Can Trump Channel Nixon to Turn Russia Against China?
Apart from the economic obstacles facing the U.S. plan, Russia is extremely unlikely to want to contain China—they have too much in common.
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Central Asia’s “frankly bonkers” March heatwave, which saw temperatures up to 10C above pre-industrial levels, was intensified by climate change, according to new research published as countries around the world suffer exceptional spring weather. www.ft.com/content/164a...
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Temur Umarov @tumarov.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
In my hometown, Samarkand, the EU & Central Asian countries have kicked off their 1st-ever high-level summit as the bloc eyes new trade & infrastructure investments while aiming to significantly elevate Brussels’ ties w/ the region. www.rferl.org/a/eu-central...
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