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Anton Barbashin

@abarbashin.bsky.social
4.6K followers 311 following 1.5K posts

Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io

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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded. ridl.io/russia-and-b...
ridl.io
Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver – Riddle Russia
Roman Chernikov on how Belarus has tried to preserve its sovereignty after 2022
0131
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify. ridl.io/repression-a...
ridl.io
Repression Around Russia’s Duma Election: What the Data Shows – Riddle Russia
Denis Shedov, Daniil Beilinson, and Eilish Hart on how the Kremlin used the State Duma election as a disciplinary tool
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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Kremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability. How to avoid them: ridl.io/seven-mistak...
ridl.io
Seven mistakes in analyzing data from Russia — and how to avoid them – Riddle Russia
Dmytro Voronenko on how official Russian numbers are "rebuilt"
0237
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Kremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability. How to avoid them: ridl.io/seven-mistak...
ridl.io
Seven mistakes in analyzing data from Russia — and how to avoid them – Riddle Russia
Dmytro Voronenko on how official Russian numbers are "rebuilt"
0237
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify. ridl.io/repression-a...
ridl.io
Repression Around Russia’s Duma Election: What the Data Shows – Riddle Russia
Denis Shedov, Daniil Beilinson, and Eilish Hart on how the Kremlin used the State Duma election as a disciplinary tool
086
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded. ridl.io/russia-and-b...
ridl.io
Russia and Belarus: A Satellite with Room to Maneuver – Riddle Russia
Roman Chernikov on how Belarus has tried to preserve its sovereignty after 2022
0131
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
How did Moscow lose its old levers—and what instruments does it still have for promoting its narratives in #Germany public life? ridl.io/germany-and-...
ridl.io
Germany and Russia: From “Change Through Trade” to Sharp Power – Riddle Russia
Dmitry Stratievski on the transformation of German-Russian relations after 2022
062
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
How did Moscow lose its old levers—and what instruments does it still have for promoting its narratives in #Germany public life? ridl.io/germany-and-...
ridl.io
Germany and Russia: From “Change Through Trade” to Sharp Power – Riddle Russia
Dmitry Stratievski on the transformation of German-Russian relations after 2022
031
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Over a quarter of a million Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were identified by name. Not a full list by far. Aside from lower than desired recruitment rate, this doesn’t seem to bother Putin at all. I can imagine him saying “we’ve lost 27 million during WWII. This is nothing”
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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Do you want to know how exactly the Kremlin cooked this year's Duma elections results? Check out this ridl.io article ridl.io/linear-russia/
ridl.io
Linear Russia – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova on how the Russia authorities got the result they wanted in the State Duma election
0103
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New round of mobilization would add strain to Russian political system, but on its own is unlikely to trigger a marked increase in protest activity ridl.io/mobilization...
ridl.io
Mobilization After the Elections? – Riddle Russia
Olga Irisova and Anton Barbashin on how experts assess the likelihood of a new wave of mobilization in 2026
072
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Russia can punish NATO. It cannot afford to fight NATO. While Moscow is still stuck in Ukraine it does not have the men, the air defenses, or the spare capacity for a real war with the Alliance — even a “limited” one in the Baltics. 1/4
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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
As soon as elections have passed, Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised down their baseline forecast for 2027 from 2% to 0.2% The Bank of Russia has likewise lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0−1%, from 0.5−1.5% What comes next? @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/the-hangover/
ridl.io
The Hangover – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)
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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Duma election results and what it says about genuine support for United Russia, unpopular measures that follow and why Volodin keeps his seat - Weekly political news analysis from Andrey Pertsev ridl.io/the-state-du...
ridl.io
The State Duma Election as an Anti-Plebiscite – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (September 21−25)
0141
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
russian Ministry of Economic Development follows Bank of russia and decreased their 2027 forecast from 2% to 0.2%. Bank of russia has already lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0%. ridl.io/the-hangover/
ridl.io
The Hangover – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)
33312
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Duma election results and what it says about genuine support for United Russia, unpopular measures that follow and why Volodin keeps his seat - Weekly political news analysis from Andrey Pertsev ridl.io/the-state-du...
ridl.io
The State Duma Election as an Anti-Plebiscite – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (September 21−25)
0141
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
As soon as elections have passed, Russian Ministry of Economic Development has revised down their baseline forecast for 2027 from 2% to 0.2% The Bank of Russia has likewise lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0−1%, from 0.5−1.5% What comes next? @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/the-hangover/
ridl.io
The Hangover – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 21 — 25)
1217
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Putin talks about #BRICS as the architecture of a new world. What Russia actually got is a bigger photo-op and some bilateral workarounds. 1/4
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Russia can punish NATO. It cannot afford to fight NATO. While Moscow is still stuck in Ukraine it does not have the men, the air defenses, or the spare capacity for a real war with the Alliance — even a “limited” one in the Baltics. 1/4
33812
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Do you want to know how exactly the Kremlin cooked this year's Duma elections results? Check out this ridl.io article ridl.io/linear-russia/
ridl.io
Linear Russia – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova on how the Russia authorities got the result they wanted in the State Duma election
0103
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
NB: “It is in the hope of another ‘geopolitical stroke of luck’ that Putin will shape his military strategy. The task of the econ bloc will be to preserve stability long enough to reach that desired future… the next [two years] are unlikely to mark an era of radical change in… econ policy.”
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New round of mobilization would add strain to Russian political system, but on its own is unlikely to trigger a marked increase in protest activity ridl.io/mobilization...
ridl.io
Mobilization After the Elections? – Riddle Russia
Olga Irisova and Anton Barbashin on how experts assess the likelihood of a new wave of mobilization in 2026
072
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is not about to become a full war economy. Expect higher taxes, budget cuts, more nationalization, and less support for the regions instead. Why? Read this Vladislav Inozemtsev new piece for ridl.io ridl.io/russian-econ...
ridl.io
Russian Economy After the Elections – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on why the Kremlin is likely to favor control and expropriation over putting the economy on a war footing after the State Duma elections
0143
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is not about to become a full war economy. Expect higher taxes, budget cuts, more nationalization, and less support for the regions instead. Why? Read this Vladislav Inozemtsev new piece for ridl.io ridl.io/russian-econ...
ridl.io
Russian Economy After the Elections – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on why the Kremlin is likely to favor control and expropriation over putting the economy on a war footing after the State Duma elections
0143
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Why did United Russia’s Duma results end up even higher than expectated? How significant were the falsifications? Should we expect a new wave of mobilization? What other unpopular measures might follow? Russia Talk with Andrey Pertsev (with auto-dubbing to English) www.youtube.com/watch?v=koyH...
youtube.com
Непопулярные меры после "выборов" 2026 - RussiaTalkS02E36 (Андрей Перцев)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
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Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Now that Duma election is over. How likely is the new wave of #mobilization in Russia and what would it look like? Olga Irisova and I surveyed 16 military experts and 10 experts on Russian elites to find out. 1/3
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Now that Duma election is over. How likely is the new wave of #mobilization in Russia and what would it look like? Olga Irisova and I surveyed 16 military experts and 10 experts on Russian elites to find out. 1/3
2208
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"High energy prices now create more problems than solutions for the Kremlin, especially if it moves to pursue another round of state-directed import substitution at the public’s expense" @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/holding-tight/
ridl.io
Holding tight – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 14 — 18)
0124
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Just before Duma elections started yesterday, Putin addressed Russians directly. First time since 2024 Crocus terrorist act. Instead of promising anything, he gave Churchill adjacent speech about the need to rally behind the troops. 1666th day of war. ridl.io/putin-gives-...
ridl.io
Putin Gives the Order – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (14−18 September)
1117
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Just before Duma elections started yesterday, Putin addressed Russians directly. First time since 2024 Crocus terrorist act. Instead of promising anything, he gave Churchill adjacent speech about the need to rally behind the troops. 1666th day of war. ridl.io/putin-gives-...
ridl.io
Putin Gives the Order – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (14−18 September)
1117
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
At this point it could mining diamonds at V886 Centauri together
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
How can one measure Russians’ real attitude toward “SVO veterans” if ordinary polls only record the officially acceptable position? Why do employers in Russia prefer not to hire those who voluntarily went to Ukraine? www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bEq...
youtube.com
Отношение к "ветеранам СВО" в российском обществе - Russia TalkS02E35 (Сергей Алексеев)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
0122
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"High energy prices now create more problems than solutions for the Kremlin, especially if it moves to pursue another round of state-directed import substitution at the public’s expense" @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/holding-tight/
ridl.io
Holding tight – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 14 — 18)
0124
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A few words on why Kremlin took down Yabloko only 12 days after the registration and why it was chasing down some of the communists. title is a bit misleading www.aljazeera.com/opinions/202...
aljazeera.com
Why the Kremlin fears even the ‘managed opposition’ in Russia
The risk of a protest vote was too high at the Duma elections so a pre-election crackdown was carried out.
1114
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Today is a first #Duma (non)-elections day in Russia Here is a great @aivengo96.bsky.social for ridl.io historic-political analysis of how Russian Duma turned into a fully obedient cog of the state machine under Putin ridl.io/parliament-o...
ridl.io
Parliament of a Mobilized State – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on how the State Duma evolved from a managed arena of political contestation into a disciplined cog of the state machine
0134
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Russia is not just simply training more drone operators, it is restructuring higher education to sustain the long-term expansion of its unmanned-systems sector ridl.io/moscow-s-thr...
ridl.io
Moscow’s Three University Pipelines for Drone War – Riddle Russia
Maksym Panchokha on how Russian universities feed the country’s drones and military through three distinct tracks
0205
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
As it would seem - no jokes here - Russian state has discovered a near infinite source of cash by prosecuting its own bureaucracy for corruption and pocketing the money they previously stole. Only in the last 18 months over $35 billion was extracted this way
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Kremlin previously tried to make the Duma elections as almost non-event, making everyone tone down the war talk. Enters Putin and makes it all about the war turning the elections results his "mandate" to continue the war as he pleases.
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Russia is not just simply training more drone operators, it is restructuring higher education to sustain the long-term expansion of its unmanned-systems sector ridl.io/moscow-s-thr...
ridl.io
Moscow’s Three University Pipelines for Drone War – Riddle Russia
Maksym Panchokha on how Russian universities feed the country’s drones and military through three distinct tracks
0205
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The Kremlin says the economy is slowing to prepare for investment. Nabiullina’s 14% hold says otherwise: more money chasing scarce labor and resources is not growth. It’s a swamp. @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for ridl.io ridl.io/the-last-cut...
ridl.io
The Last Cut Is the Deepest – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 7 — 12)
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
FOM and VTsIOM are now openly contradicting each other on United Russia’s rating. VTsIOM has United Russia at 37.4% and ticking up. FOM has it at 33% — down from 37% in August. Why? ridl.io/the-battle-o...
ridl.io
The Battle of the Pollsters and Medvedev’s Petition – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (September 7−12)
051
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The Kremlin says the economy is slowing to prepare for investment. Nabiullina’s 14% hold says otherwise: more money chasing scarce labor and resources is not growth. It’s a swamp. @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social for ridl.io ridl.io/the-last-cut...
ridl.io
The Last Cut Is the Deepest – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (September 7 — 12)
1215
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
There is little reason to expect Ankara to distance itself abruptly from Russia in trade and investment. As Turkey has made clear, however, economic rapprochement does not constrain it in its political rivalry with Moscow. Nikita Smagin for ridl.io ridl.io/turkey-and-r...
ridl.io
Turkey and Russia: Economic Rapprochement amid Political Rivalry – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on Turkish-Russian relations after 2022
052
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
There is little reason to expect Ankara to distance itself abruptly from Russia in trade and investment. As Turkey has made clear, however, economic rapprochement does not constrain it in its political rivalry with Moscow. Nikita Smagin for ridl.io ridl.io/turkey-and-r...
ridl.io
Turkey and Russia: Economic Rapprochement amid Political Rivalry – Riddle Russia
Nikita Smagin on Turkish-Russian relations after 2022
052
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Judging by social-media reactions, Russian society again appears to want a discussion of what is happening in the country and a more active form of political participation. ridl.io/managed-elec...
ridl.io
Managed Elections and Unmanageable Interest – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova on a growing public appetite for debate about what is happening in Russia
0103
Reposted by Anton Barbashin
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Can Russia attack #NATO right now? Does it have enough forces to do so? Any signs that RU is preparing for a full-scale war with NATO? If not through direct military action, how will RU continue its struggle against NATO? @erwoods.bsky.social Dubbing to EN available www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhIQ...
youtube.com
Нападет ли Россия на НАТО? - RussiaTalkS02E34 (Эрик Вудс)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
172
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Can Russia attack #NATO right now? Does it have enough forces to do so? Any signs that RU is preparing for a full-scale war with NATO? If not through direct military action, how will RU continue its struggle against NATO? @erwoods.bsky.social Dubbing to EN available www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhIQ...
youtube.com
Нападет ли Россия на НАТО? - RussiaTalkS02E34 (Эрик Вудс)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
172
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Judging by social-media reactions, Russian society again appears to want a discussion of what is happening in the country and a more active form of political participation. ridl.io/managed-elec...
ridl.io
Managed Elections and Unmanageable Interest – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova on a growing public appetite for debate about what is happening in Russia
0103
Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Nothing changed. New visit of US representatives to Moscow won’t bring any tangible results. They will hear the same peace formula and assertion that Donetsk region will be taken by force
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Anton Barbashin @abarbashin.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Putin started the full scale invasion of Ukraine with a promise that “Russia will be safer” as a result of it. 1652 days later Russian government grants Russia Post the right to obtain arms to protect its offices from Ukrainian drones
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