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Tobias Harris

@tobiasharris.bsky.social
7.5K followers 817 following 8.7K posts

Japanese politics analyst; author of The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan; Chicago-born Cubs fan now living in DC; marathoner. Substack: Observingjapan.substack.com. Business: www.japanforesight.com

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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 7h
Ruling and opposition parties discuss the debate on consumption tax cut, DPFP hints at cooperation, and LDP fiscal hawks speak out. Two ministers face new scandal allegations. Katayama disavows “reflationary policy," but there are some important caveats. observingjapan.substack.com/p/lawmakers-...
observingjapan.substack.com
Lawmakers on all sides brace for consumption tax fight | Japan Daily Briefing
The consumption tax cut Diet already promises to be contentious
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 16h
I think I've really figured out a good note taking workflow for this book project: -All notes go to Obsidian, which syncs between phone and computer so I can work on the go -Skim for extracting from PDFs -Bookcision for ebook notes
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Takaichi government will submit 21 bills during the forthcoming session. The BOJ's summary of opinions from September suggests that the bank will move deliberately, monitoring the impact of rate hikes on financial conditions and the real economy, observingjapan.substack.com/p/government...
observingjapan.substack.com
Government readies agenda for Diet session | Japan Daily Briefing
But Ishin no Kai wonders whether its electoral reform bill will be sidelined again
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Takaichi government will submit 21 bills during the forthcoming session. The BOJ's summary of opinions from September suggests that the bank will move deliberately, monitoring the impact of rate hikes on financial conditions and the real economy, observingjapan.substack.com/p/government...
observingjapan.substack.com
Government readies agenda for Diet session | Japan Daily Briefing
But Ishin no Kai wonders whether its electoral reform bill will be sidelined again
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stevelevitsky.bsky.social @stevelevitsky.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Lucan Way and I have been writing about competitive authoritarianism for more than 25 years. We never thought we'd write this piece. www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/com...
journalofdemocracy.org
Competitive Authoritarianism in America | Journal of Democracy
The United States has slid into competitive authoritarianism. The slide has been modest and remains reversible—but it is real. Even after Donald Trump, American democracy will remain fragile.
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Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
this is good, recommend:
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Akazawa Ryōsei, tasked with negotiating with the Trump administration, recounts the experience in a new book. In this review I note how Akazawa has, perhaps unintentionally, revealed the realities of Trump’s “neo-royalist” foreign policy. observingjapan.substack.com/p/a-weberian...
observingjapan.substack.com
A Weberian bureaucrat in King Donald's court
What Akazawa Ryōsei reveals about negotiations with the Trump administration
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Update: my review of the book is here. observingjapan.substack.com/p/a-weberian...
observingjapan.substack.com
A Weberian bureaucrat in King Donald's court
What Akazawa Ryōsei reveals about negotiations with the Trump administration
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Update: my review of the book is here. observingjapan.substack.com/p/a-weberian...
observingjapan.substack.com
A Weberian bureaucrat in King Donald's court
What Akazawa Ryōsei reveals about negotiations with the Trump administration
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Akazawa Ryōsei, tasked with negotiating with the Trump administration, recounts the experience in a new book. In this review I note how Akazawa has, perhaps unintentionally, revealed the realities of Trump’s “neo-royalist” foreign policy. observingjapan.substack.com/p/a-weberian...
observingjapan.substack.com
A Weberian bureaucrat in King Donald's court
What Akazawa Ryōsei reveals about negotiations with the Trump administration
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Ieyasu-kun stands ready to serve as the mascot for Sakoku II.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Former foreign minister Iwaya has met senior Chinese government officials in Beijing. Whether Beijing wants to isolate Takaichi or wants to stabilize relations, neither government appears willing to back down after nearly a year of worsening ties. observingjapan.substack.com/p/iwaya-sees...
observingjapan.substack.com
Iwaya sees senior Chinese leaders but no signs of thaw between governments | Japan Daily Briefing
Beijing may have multiple reasons for meeting with friendlier Japanese lawmakers
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Former foreign minister Iwaya has met senior Chinese government officials in Beijing. Whether Beijing wants to isolate Takaichi or wants to stabilize relations, neither government appears willing to back down after nearly a year of worsening ties. observingjapan.substack.com/p/iwaya-sees...
observingjapan.substack.com
Iwaya sees senior Chinese leaders but no signs of thaw between governments | Japan Daily Briefing
Beijing may have multiple reasons for meeting with friendlier Japanese lawmakers
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
:: Boyd surrenders a leadoff home run:: "... Right, that's why I haven't been invested in this team"
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
static.klipy.com
George Costanza's Iconic Jerk Store Comeback
ALT: George Costanza's Iconic Jerk Store Comeback
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Amy Stanley @astanley711.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Excited to be working with Norton on two new histories of Japan! I have my work cut out for me for approximately the next decade!!
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Takaichi spoke briefly with Trump after the Xi summit. Koizumi questioned the nuclear taboo again. Takaichi’s new cabinet polls poorly. observingjapan.substack.com/p/yalta-20-j...
observingjapan.substack.com
“Yalta 2.0”? | Japan Daily Briefing
Takaichi seeks to reassure the public after the US-China summit, but the signs of anxiety in Tokyo are abundant
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Takaichi spoke briefly with Trump after the Xi summit. Koizumi questioned the nuclear taboo again. Takaichi’s new cabinet polls poorly. observingjapan.substack.com/p/yalta-20-j...
observingjapan.substack.com
“Yalta 2.0”? | Japan Daily Briefing
Takaichi seeks to reassure the public after the US-China summit, but the signs of anxiety in Tokyo are abundant
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
What was Seinfeld but an exploration of "the ick" in relationships years before Gen Z came around.
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
colby: selling weapons to taiwan vs selling weapons to china
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I wonder if he mentioned this when he "debriefed" Takaichi on the summit.
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It's Pipes, Mum! Pipes is here! @scriblit.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
*blackadder theme* His head is bigger than a fence He breathes, and everything gets warmer His urge to trample represents A nation's nuclear war trauma Godzilla! Godzilla! The scourge of beast and man! Godzilla! Godzilla! He's flattening Japan!
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Takaichi claimed summit with Trump was a success as he met with Xi, but Tokyo and Washington remain apart on major issues. Opposition is wary of Takaichi’s intentions for Diet reforms. Ishin's first cabinet minister faces new allegations of misconduct. observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-d...
observingjapan.substack.com
Takaichi downplays concerns about US-China summit | Japan Daily Briefing
But Xi and Trump’s celebration of the US-China wartime alliance does not go unnoticed in Tokyo
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Takaichi claimed summit with Trump was a success as he met with Xi, but Tokyo and Washington remain apart on major issues. Opposition is wary of Takaichi’s intentions for Diet reforms. Ishin's first cabinet minister faces new allegations of misconduct. observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-d...
observingjapan.substack.com
Takaichi downplays concerns about US-China summit | Japan Daily Briefing
But Xi and Trump’s celebration of the US-China wartime alliance does not go unnoticed in Tokyo
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
more plastic is the solution to all of life's problems - ancient Japanese proverb
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Come to think of it, what are Donki, Muji, and 100 yen shops but three different flavors of clutter management.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think Xi has started to use some of the faces Abe used to use during his meetings. We'll know it's really serious though if Xi takes up golf.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Out: Joint statements (Bo-ring) In: Whatever this is www.whitehouse.gov/releases/202...
whitehouse.gov
President Trump, First Lady Conclude Historic China State Visit
Today, President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump concluded a historic state visit with His Excellency Xi Jinping, President of the People’s
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I see all that jawboning from Takaichi and Motegi has paid dividends.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
People who kind of but not fully pay attention to US politics may not appreciate that there is barely a political echelon of government anymore
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Waiting for that next intervention
static.klipy.com
Mr Bean: Rowan Atkinson Waiting
ALT: Mr Bean: Rowan Atkinson Waiting
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We're definitely living in a world dreamed up by @shteyngart.bsky.social.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Takaichi is home from the US after meeting Trump and addressing the UNGA for the first time. Her address to the UN discussed Japan’s interest in a rules-based order, but avoided any mention of the US. New poll shows positive response to cabinet reshuffle. observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichis-...
observingjapan.substack.com
Takaichi’s New York minute | Japan Daily Briefing
US-Japan summit leaves unfinished business
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Takaichi is home from the US after meeting Trump and addressing the UNGA for the first time. Her address to the UN discussed Japan’s interest in a rules-based order, but avoided any mention of the US. New poll shows positive response to cabinet reshuffle. observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichis-...
observingjapan.substack.com
Takaichi’s New York minute | Japan Daily Briefing
US-Japan summit leaves unfinished business
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Nick Kapur @nickkapur.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Japanese used bookstores are reporting a massive uptick in bulk purchases of used Japanese books by overseas buyers, seemingly without any regard to their contents. The only logical conclusion is that these books are being stripped, scanned, and discarded to train AI models.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
There is a lie in this Yomiuri headline.
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Dick Samuels @rjsamuels.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This one, yes?
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Borners @borners.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Broke: The Japanese do as they are told. Woke: Japanese rebel sometimes. Bespoke: In Japan, the people in charge must do as they're told.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 23/09/2026
Trump lays a new trap for Takaichi ft.trib.al/eyaZMj6 | opinion
ft.trib.al
Trump lays a new trap for Takaichi
The threat of appearing as a vassal state is growing ever more real for middle powers
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Really fond of this Neko Case-Pernice Brothers collaboration: youtu.be/NRW2LK33YVY?...
youtu.be
Pernice Brothers - "I Don't Need That Anymore (feat. Neko Case)" [Official Audio]
YouTube video by New West Records
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'm not sure I've ever really appreciated how weird the Japanese political system was during the war. And Tojo not only had to sit there taking questions but was eventually removed through cabinet machinations, not a coup.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This is less "top shows of the twenty-first century" and more "shows I've watched start to finish and enjoyed."
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Takaichi veering into a discussion of her cabinet reshuffle during a brief press availability with Trump strikes me as very on brand for her.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I feel like Sluggerrr probably should get his skull checked out. That's some serious nightmare fuel.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Among the latest additions to my library, this two volume book from 1952 exposing the Yoshida-led Liberal Party.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It sure would be a problem if businesses used gasoline and other fuels to produce and sell things.
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
FREE FRIDAY: BOJ hikes again, but Ueda cautious in the face of ongoing challenges. Takaichi announces sub-cabinet appointments. Hayashi sidesteps questions about his plans. Packed agenda when Takaichi meets Trump. Rough start for new opposition group. observingjapan.substack.com/p/ueda-circu...
observingjapan.substack.com
Ueda circumspect about next steps after hike | Japan Daily Briefing
Cross-cutting pressures on the bank will continue after the “inevitable” hike
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Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
In this scenario, I wonder if Asia on the whole is poorer. Chiang victorious means US less committed to Japan's reconstruction, no Korean War to encourage early boom, less US need for political old guard. Neither China nor Japan has an economic miracle, Japan ends up underdeveloped neutral.
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