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Tobias Gehrke

@tobiasgehrke.bsky.social
3.1K followers 1K following 339 posts

Geoeconomics and economic security at European Council on Foreign Relations | PhD

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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR Rome @ecfrrome.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
🚨 Policy brief! 🇺🇸Trump userà finanza, energia e tech per fare pressione sull'#Europa. 🇪🇺 Ma quest'ultima ha più opzioni di quanto pensi. Mitigare, dissuadere, escalare: il nuovo policy brief @ecfr.eu di @agathedemarais.com, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social e @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social
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Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 15/06/2026
As tariffs hit their limits Trump could turn to the financial, energy and digital fields to pressure Europe - in our @ecfr.eu policy brief @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social and I sketch out three such scenarios, complete with response options for Europe ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 12/06/2026
ECFR’s latest poll confirms the collapse in European faith in the US. Only 11% of respondents now consider it an ally, down from 16% half a year ago and 22% in November 2024. ecfr.eu/publication/home-alone-euro…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR Geoeconomics and Tech @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🎲Going all in or playing it safe? Our latest policy brief explores scenarios of US coercion against Europe in the finance, energy and tech spheres. It maps out 3 potential EU responses: mitigation, deterrence and escalation. Read @ecfr.eu's new report: ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Mitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations
The US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
I joined the Derisky Business pod with @geoffreygertz.bsky.social and Emily Kilcrease to discuss Europe's latest China twists, trade wars, and what's left of transatlantic economic security. www.cnas.org/publications...
cnas.org
Europe’s Looming Trade War with China, with Tobias Gehrke
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Wessel van Rensburg @wildebees.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
China's silent coercion works precisely because Europe debates marginal adjustments whilst avoiding systemic responses. Beijing achieves policy paralysis without firing a shot—the threat of retaliation constrains European action more effectively than actual sanctions ever could.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 30/05/2026
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: bit.ly/43r0l4M
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How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Big weeks in Brussels and EU capitals to see if the chilling effect of Chinese coercive threats will continue to hold sway over Europe’s trade and industrial agenda. Beijing’s coercive leverage works best when it quietly constrains Europe’s policy space... 1/
ecfr.eu
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 28/05/2026
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: bit.ly/43r0l4M
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How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 26/05/2026
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest—China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself. Read the full commentary by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social: bit.ly/43r0l4M
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How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
PubAffairs EU Debates, News & Opinions 🇪🇺 @pubaffairsbruxelles.eu · 27/05/2026
[Commentary] #Trade & #GlobalEurope: How #China’s silent coercion has #Europe sanctioning itself, by @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social | @ecfr.eu www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...
pubaffairsbruxelles.eu
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself - PubAffairs Bruxelles
China is ramping up its threats of economic coercion against Europe. In April alone, China’s State Council enacted the Provisions on Industrial and Supply Chain Security (which instructs its companies...
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR Madrid @ecfrmadrid.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
📌 «CÓMO LA COERCIÓN SILENCIOSA DE CHINA ESTÁ LLEVANDO A EUROPA A SANCIONARSE A SÍ MISMA» 📝 @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ( @ecfrpower.bsky.social ) 💡 Pekín no necesita recurrir a la coacción económica para orientar la agenda económica de Europa 🔗 Puedes descubrir más aquí ⬇️ ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu
How China’s silent coercion has Europe sanctioning itself – European Council on Foreign Relations
Beijing no longer needs to actively deploy economic coercion to shape Europe’s economic agenda in its interest
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
If European policymakers pre-emptively drop measures to address the China shock more systematically for fear of retaliation, the chilling effect of Chinese coercion works just as well, without having to actually use its tools 1/
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 03/04/2026
As our latest policy brief, Beijing hold'em, discusses the key economic strategies Europe should develop to build a deterrence posture against China, in a previous one, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social stated the kinds of assets Europeans have against the Trump administration. bit.ly/3PBPZvz
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 31/03/2026
In Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion, Tobias Gehrke and Nina Schmelzer map the key leverage points available to the EU across trade, investment and critical infrastructure which can build an economic deterrence posture against China. bit.ly/413rF8c
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
China's mineral monopoly does not only give Beijing coercive power over European defense and industrial sectors, but it can also hold the wider EU competitiveness agenda hostage. 1/
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Good moment to repost my paper from last year, mapping the cards Europe could play in response to US coercion. Most of them could be played via the anti-coercion instrument. Digital services charges and (de facto) export controls are the keys. ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Brussels hold’em: European cards against Trumpian coercion – European Council on Foreign Relations
Faced with an aggressive United States, Europe has more leverage than it realises. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance and people-to-people relati
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Friends, I've moved to DC. If you're based here or are passing through, do get in touch!
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 26/12/2025
🎧New week, new podcast! This week, Mark Leonard welcomes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and Andrew Small. Together, they discuss China’s current and future economic strategies—and actions that Europe should take in response Listen to the full episode: bit.ly/4qjSFuF
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 04/12/2025
The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk manager and become a power broker, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social bit.ly/446JjKc
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Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook
The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
What to make of the EU's latest economic security proposals A few thoughts for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/unde...
ecfr.eu
Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook
The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Adam Harrison @adamdkharrison.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 24/11/2025
The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...
foreignpolicy.com
The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus
If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
“Europe is in a historic economic security crisis, with its industry being dependent on bureaucrats in Beijing signing licences for REEs. "The EU needs to get together to solve this issue as quickly as possible... call it economic security or not,” said @tobiasgehrke @ecfr
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates. Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, Europe scrambles for its dictionary My report on the EU's struggle to define economic security, even as it prepares to launch yet another economic security initiative...
scmp.com
As US-China rivalry redefines economic warfare, EU scrambles for its dictionary
The EU is preparing to unveil a new doctrine on economic security, but it’s a concept that officials and experts say has no clear definition.
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/11/2025
There’s no shortage of ways inverters can be turned into weapons, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social bit.ly/4pGeDbd
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How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it In my latest, I look at how Europe’s solar boom has quietly given Beijing potential access points inside the EU energy grid through Chinese-made inverters. 🧵 ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR Geoeconomics and Tech @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Europe’s solar boom has handed China remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid technologies, Europe risks another energy security crisis, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/how-...
ecfr.eu
How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it
Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
America is eating Europe’s lunch again. Solvay’s rare earth processing plant in France is a genuine strategic asset. It could have scaled to cover 30% of Europe’s needs. But... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b...
nytimes.com
Europe’s Biggest Rare Earths Producer Forges U.S. Deals
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
After striking a critical mineral deal with Australia, Washington also inked another one with Tokyo. A few things worth noting: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...
whitehouse.gov
United States - Japan Framework for Securing the Supply of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths through Mining and Processing
Whereas, critical minerals and rare earths are essential for the production of advanced technologies; Whereas, the United States of America (the “United
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
A Canadian miner announced a $277 million investment to construct the first US heavy rare earth separation facility in Louisiana. Plans to mine in South America and ship them to Louisiana for processing asiatimes.com/2025/10/1st-...
asiatimes.com
1st US heavy rare earths separation facility planned in Louisiana - Asia Times
A Canadian mining company plans to build a facility in Louisiana's Calcasieu Parish to refine rare earth metals used in a variety of motors and
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
More trouble ahead "Rather than prioritizing an expansion in household demand, the party has doubled down on its production-led development model, elevating the erection of a “modernized industrial system” to the No. 1 priority, up from No. 2 in the previous plan" www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
If the ACI is not used now, at a time when China is taking coercion to a new level through its rare earth controls, the tool deserves a place at the back of the deep-freeze, next to the CAI. @jankaoertel.bsky.social @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
This is a really good speech from VDL. And she pitches what could become a gamechanging tool on raw materials.
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
A supply analysis of 107 leading European corporations from seven industries shows that 86% purchase chips from Nexperia sites in China - 100% in aerospace and defence sectors - 95% in mechanical engineering - 86% in medical technology - 49% in automotive www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/...
handelsblatt.com
Handelsblatt
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The irony is that Beijing does not allow any foreign inverter suppliers in its energy grid for cybersecurity reasons. But Chinese firms happily undercut European competitors and now supply and control some 80% of inverters in Europe. Disaster in the making... www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Huawei’s solar tech sparks fears of Europe’s next dependency crisis
Cyber officials fear the Chinese tech giant’s grip on energy networks.
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The ACI was on the table at EUCO, but no agreement was found. Tactically, EU is also waiting for - US-China discussions (Bessent-He Lifeng; Trump-Xi). If agreement is found, will EU benefit or left in rain? - Trade minister Wang Wentao in Brussels: how steep are Chinese demands?
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 23/10/2025
A qualified majority of member states must agree that the EU is being subjected to economic coercion. If China’s recent actions do not meet that threshold, it is hard to imagine what ever will, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social bit.ly/475mPLG
bit.ly
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR Geoeconomics and Tech @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table, write @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social & @jankaoertel.bsky.social @ecfr.eu. Read more: ecfr.eu/article/esca...
ecfr.eu
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 22/10/2025
Europeans need collective leverage to even start a conversation with Beijing—otherwise acceptance becomes the new normal and Beijing will continue to gradually escalate, write @jankaoertel.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfrpower.bsky.social bit.ly/475mPLG
bit.ly
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
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Reposted by Tobias Gehrke
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Report from @TGehrke_and @jankaoertel calling for the EU to use the anti coercion instrument against China over rare earths Points to chokepoints Europe could use: -older DUV machines -airplane components -high precision bearings -powdered superalloys
ecfr-eu.cdn.ampproject.org
Escalate to negotiate: How Europe should respond to Chinese export restrictions
Beijing is turning its rare earth monopoly into a weapon. The EU needs to treat this as the emergency that it is and unleash its anti-coercion shield to bring China to the negotiating table…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
The EU should trigger the anti-coercion instrument to respond to China's rare earth weapon @jankaoertel.bsky.social and I show why this is necessary and what the EU could target Goal: a political deal based on mutually assured economic destruction, buying Europe time to decouple from Chinese REEs.
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Tariffs, markets, currencies, minerals, energy, migrants. States are tightening chokeholds at the stroke of a pen, inflicting pain and sowing chaos. Can the European Union survive in this new brutal age of weaponisation? My long read is out this morning.
euronews.com
The new age of weaponisation lays bare Europe's weaknesses
Does the EU have what it takes to survive in the age of weaponisation? Recent events have cast light on the crucial question. #EuropeNews
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Agathe Demarais @agathedemarais.com · 17/09/2025
What can we learn from nine months of Trumponomics, what are the next flashpoints for US-EU trade, investment and finance battles and how can the EU turn the Trump storm into an opportunity? I try to answer these questions in my new @ecfr.eu policy brief (with cool charts) 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
The US president is throwing the EU lots of economic curveballs. Brussels should not be distracted by these; instead, it should double down on adopting measures that will benefit the bloc long after…
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Tobias Gehrke @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Noah @noahbarkin.bsky.social quoting EU source claiming the ACI would have triggered *if* Turnberry had not produced a deal I'm sceptical - does not square with Ukraine/NATO primacy messaging - "No deal" was hardly an option. A worse deal rather - IT & PL supposedly supporting it is suspicious 😄
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
“Both the Chinese and Americans are taking economic hostages right across the board, and then they try to leverage those hostages in negotiations,” said @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social, a specialist in geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered My report on whether the EU's upcoming "economic security doctrine" risks bringing a knife to a gun fight www.scmp.com/news/china/d...
scmp.com
EU readies new economic battle plan but leaves its old guns holstered
Top trade officials break ranks to admit the bloc does not have structures to move as the US and China do in the economic security space.
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Donald Trump's latest tariff threat comes with a message impossible to ignore: the EU-US trade war isn't over yet. It is just evolving. My analysis.
euronews.com
Trump's new tariff threat suggests the EU-US trade war isn't over yet
Brussels hoped the EU-US deal would finally put an end to the trade war. But Donald Trump's new tariff threat suggests the story is far from over. #EuropeNews
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
Joint Statement on a United States-European Union framework on an agreement on reciprocal, fair and balanced trade
The United States and the European Union are pleased to announce that they have agreed on a Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade ('Framework Agreement').
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