Sign in

Spyros Andreopoulos

@thinicemacro.bsky.social
67 followers 30 following 66 posts

Macroeconomist and consultant, politics junkie, wine lover. Ex ECB economist. Blogs on global macro, central banks, Europe, on thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com. Company website: thinicemacro.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The #Treasury #buyback operation and the possible use of FIMA for #yen #intervention have one thing in common: they signal that Washington is nervous about #Treasury #yields. That piles on the pressure for #Warsh to deliver a #framework for #Fed policy in his #JacksonHole speech.
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
#Yen #intervention: the modalities of future interventions betray #USTreasury nervousness about #treasuries, undermining #confidence in both #JPY and #USD 👇 thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com/p/the-yen-an...
thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com
The Yen and the US Treasury's Tightrope Walk
Afterthoughts on yen intervention
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Want one single off the shelf #economic #indicator to watch that will sound the alarm bells 🔔 for #equities? See my latest post 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Profit warning
Watch the profit share in GDP.
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
#Macro in times of the #AI #bubble: I’ve joined the dots and filled in the blanks in the latest #BIS Annual Report. 👇 #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
ArtificiaI Exuberance
The view from the tower of Basel
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
A new #centralbank consensus has emerged - but there’s an area that is not part of the consensus. My latest #Substack - subscription is free 👇 #Sintra #QE #forwardguidance #AI #rates #financialstability #Fed #ECB #BankofEngland #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
The New Central Bank Consensus
… and how it doesn't apply to AI
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
My thoughts on the implications of the #US-#Iran deal for the #ECB on Bloomberg
000
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
The power of indexing: members of the S&P 500 Index of largest US companies have slower earnings growth than the next 500, but enjoy higher valuations. www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
reuters.com
Breakingviews - Passive investors actively pump up market bubble
Index-tracking funds are on ⁠track to ​buy a large chunk ​of the shares sold in SpaceX’s record $75 ​billion offering. ​With more than half the ‌U.S. ⁠market now invested by hands-off managers, benchm...
053
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
#ECB nearing point of no return for 2nd #ratehike - my preview of June, and beyond. 👇 #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
ECB Preview: Nearing Point of No Return for Second Hike
Looking beyond June
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
#Fed: the dot plot isn’t forward guidance! #Markets: the dot plot is forward guidance, but you’re too data dependent. #Warsh: I don’t like forward guidance, I’ll get rid of the dot plot. I also don’t like data dependence. 🤯🙈
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
🇺🇸 #Warsh at the #Fed: why reducing the #balancesheet to enable ✂️ in #fedfunds won’t work: I’ve done the math 👇 #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Warsh at the Fed: Doves Have Taken Flight
And: some unpleasant balance sheet arithmetic
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
The case for #euro #stablecoins - the #digitaleuro is not enough #ThinIceMacro #EU open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
The Case for Euro Stablecoins
... and some thoughts on President Lagarde's case against
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
In case you were wondering why #Taiwan, and not #trade, is the most important issue for #Xi. #USChina #summit #TrumpXi
000
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Andy Langenkamp @andylangenkamp.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
@thinicemacro.bsky.social: We're no longer simply dealing with uncertainty within a stable framework; there's uncertainty about the framework itself. Once the framework becomes unstable, almost anything can be interpreted as touching on sovereignty thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com/p/geopolitic...
thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com
Geopolitical World
Delphi debrief
011
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
#Fed, #ECB, and #BoJ decisions going forward should be shaped by their #credibility: my latest #Substack 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Fed, ECB, and BoJ: A Matter of Credibility
Fed: don’t lose it; ECB: use it; Japan: keep paying the price
120
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
#ECB: On a Highway to Hike - But with Offramp #ECB validated market expectations of June hike. Posture: default outcome next meeting is hike, unless conflict ends: a path to a hike, with a conditional offramp. Overall, comms less preemptive, more reactive – but determined.
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
My preview of the #ECB #meeting 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac… #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #centralbanks #eurozone #euro #markets #bonds #fx
open.substack.com
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
#Waller’s warning about #inflation is significant as he is both a dove and has called the economy right more than anyone: check out my latest #Substack 👇 - plus: implications of #Hungary’s #election for #Europe and the #euro. open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Waller's Warning
plus: Pull to the Euro - Hungary edition
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Does shrinking the #Fed #balance_sheet really enable rate ✂️ My latest #Substack 👇 #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Warsh and the Fed's Balance Sheet
What read-across to fed funds?
011
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
The stakes of the election could not be higher: if Orbán wins, #Hungary will continue its slide into autocracy domestically and will keep blocking joint action at the EU level wrote @zecsaky.bsky.social in her @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here:
buff.ly
Can Hungary's opposition win and restore democracy?
After 15 years, Viktor Orbán could lose power. But the opposition’s path is fraught with obstacles, from a lopsided electoral system to the extraordinary difficulty of restoring democracy even if…
053
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Question that’s puzzling me for years: given 1956, how come majority of Hungarians have voted for a pro-Russian Orban?
000
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The vast majority of Hungary's 7.6 million voters have made up their minds regarding where their crosses are going on Sunday's ballots. Few of the 350K or so who haven't and who might yet vote are unlikely to be persuaded by the razzamatazz provided by Vance's soiree in town 1/
45010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Piece on the #geopolitical role of the #euro and what the #ECB can do to support it. With @sandertordoir.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
The ECB and the Euro's Global Role
The ECB can do more
0101
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
#eurozone selling price expectations saw a sharp rise in March, but so far only for #industry. #inflation #oil #Iran #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Resilience: world #exports vs #US effective #tariff rate #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
000
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Carlo "Realism, Gedankenfetzen und Rants" Masala @carlomasala1.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
No matter what Trump’s response is (and we have a pretty good idea what it will be), no defense secretary has ever so elegantly denied the U.S. commitment to Article 5.
3143997
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Paul Blustein @paulblustein.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Have you heard the one about the Iranian ploy to dethrone the dollar by demanding payment in CNY instead of USD for oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz? No joke—it’s raising quite a ballyhoo! It’s the latest bout of alarmism over dollar dominance. Here’s my take: fortune.com/2026/03/30/p...
fortune.com
Dollar doomsayers can relax: Iran's 'petroyuan' gambit won't topple the greenback | Fortune
The petrodollar story is overstated, and increasingly outdated.
122
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Stunning performance of #China #exports since the #Trump #tariffs 👇 #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... Will he #TACO? President #Trump faces a #trilemma in #Iran. Check out my new #substack 👇
open.substack.com
Iran: Trump's Trilemma
The President's options
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
How #ECB has responded to #oil shocks in the past and what it means for now (incl. this week's #ECBmeeting). #Iran #inflation #energy #oilshock #Europe #centralbanks #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
ECB and Oil: Past to Present
Market too hawkish
001
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
IMO, it’s important to be precise about what shocks world is undergoing rather than just $ smile safe-haven bla-bla. 1. Febs 2022 & 2026 were negative global energy supply shocks —> positive US ToT shocks. 2. Feb & April 2025 were US global public goods withdrawal —> RoW fiscal expansion shocks.
14418
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
The #ECB’s liquidity lines could become Europe’s equivalent of the Fed’s global dollar backstop — if policy-makers dare to scale them up. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
053
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
🛢️Fun fact on #US #economy and #oilprice spike👇 share of #gasoline and #energy in #US #consumer #spending at all-time low of 2% in Dec 2025 (latest PCE), equal to Jan 2002 and lower only during Covid (WTI 19$). #FOMC #Iran #war #oil #oilprice #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
001
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
Higher European defence spending and the EU’s reputation for institutional stability could strengthen global demand for euro-denominated assets. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
185
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
René Smits 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇱🇮🇸🇨🇦(🇻🇦) @rs-lawsociety.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
former @ecb.europa.eu economists argue for strengthening the international role of the euro: The ECB’s bid to strengthen the euro’s global role by @thinicemacro.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 20 February 2026 www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
cer.eu
The ECB's bid to strengthen the euro's global role
As dollar dominance wobbles, Europe should boost the euro’s reach, led by bolder liquidity lines from the ECB.
011
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @thinicemacro.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Cr4aLFO
074
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
important piece by my colleague @sandertordoir.bsky.social & @thinicemacro.bsky.social - geopolitical power and the currency go together, and as the dollar's domination is shaken, there is an opportunity for the euro, and Europe, to play a bigger role.
0159
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
New piece with former fellow ECB hand @thinicemacro.bsky.social. At the Munich Security Conference, the ECB made its geopolitical move, opening repo lines to central banks globally. It was probably the most consequential policy announcement at the conference. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ecb...
cer.eu
The ECB's bid to strengthen the euro's global role
As dollar dominance wobbles, Europe should boost the euro’s reach, led by bolder liquidity lines from the ECB.
23918
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
‼️ Joint piece with @sandertordoir.bsky.social on the #ECB #geopolitical tools and how it advances the role of the #euro 👇 #CER #ThinIceMacro
052
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
🇯🇵 #Takaichi landslide #election victory is an opportunity for a policy reset in #Japan: she needs to restore the credibility of the policy #framework- #BoJ and #fiscal 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
Takaichi Needs to Restore Policy Credibility
For both monetary and fiscal policy
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
#ECB will be on hold in next week’s meeting, so market focus will be on the #euro. 👉 Language on #fx next week shouldn’t be much more than the usual ❗️Another leg down in #USD could elicit stronger language My meeting preview: 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
€CB Preview: Some Talk, No Action on FX
Rates firmly on hold
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
#ECB verbal intervention on #USD weakness has started, and it’s bipartisan: Kocher (Austria) - hawk: “ECB would need to act if euro keeps gaining” Villeroy (France) - dove: “Strong euro is element that will guide ECB policy.” Still, a long way away from action. #EUR #euro
020
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Small example of how far-right populists in Europe will ... how can I put this?, struggle to co-operate. cf also AfD views on France asking the #ECB to help with French debt costs.
23310
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros... In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
linkedin.com
Steckt Japan in der Schuldenkrise? | Spyros Andreopoulos 🇺🇦
Die Situation in #Japan sieht brenzlich 🔥 aus. Der #Yen wertet ab 📉 und die #Renditen steigen 📈 weiter. Die Sitzung der #BankofJapan scheint zunächst für Stabilität gesorgt zu haben, aber von Ent...
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Is it just me or was Carney’s speech mainly addressed at Europe? Digested read: “wake up, stop whining, get your act together.”
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
The Case for a German ECB President
Someone has to make it
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
The next #ECB Pres should be German 🇩🇪, I argued - reprinted by the @financialtimes.com (thank you @olafstorbeck.ft.com). With plenty of qualified people around for the position, 🇪🇺 can afford to make a choice for the right #political, even #geopolitical, reasons. Link to the full piece 👇
110
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... #ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com
ECB Preview: Don't Mention the Hike
A comms guide
010
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑 US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27. My latest #Substack 👇  open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... #ThinIceMacro
open.substack.com
000
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
Digested read on #secondChinashock in #Europe. #ECB #geopolitics #globalimbalances open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
open.substack.com
China 2.0: European Economy Edition
It's a big deal
020
Spyros Andreopoulos @thinicemacro.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... #Fed #rstar #centralbanks #bonds #ECB #monetarypolicy #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com
Fed vs Bond Markets: Measuring the Stars
Do neutral rate estimates matter? Should they?
000